This Sunday, Ecuadorians will go to the polls to express their support or rejection of the 11 questions of the popular consultation promoted by the president of Ecuador, Daniel Noboa.
Most of the questions are related to the field of security, such as the role of the armed forces in the fight against organized crime, the increase in penalties for serious crimes and the possible extradition of Ecuadorians.
Ecuador is going through a deep public safety crisisrecording around 8,000 violent deaths in 2023the highest homicide rate in Latin America.
But there are also other questions that have generated controversy, such as hourly employment contracts and international arbitration for investments and commercial matters.
Although at the beginning of March Noboa was the president with the highest popularity in South America, 62.5% according to the CB Consultora survey, the first weeks of April have not been easy for the president, who is risking much of his political capital this Sunday .
The assault on the Mexican embassy in Quito (which occurred on Friday the 5th in order to capture former vice president Jorge Glas) brought some important costs, such as the break of diplomatic relations with the country led by Andrés Manuel López Obradorthe condemnation of the Organization of American States (OAS) and the closure by Venezuela of its embassy and consulates in Ecuador.
Furthermore, the Andean nation is suffering a serious energy crisis which has led Noboa to declare an emergency in the electricity sector, to carry out “temporary rationing” (with cuts of up to 5 hours a day), and to suspend the working day for two days (Thursday, April 18 and Friday, April 19).
Here we tell you what is at stake with the popular consultation and what the approval of the proposed reforms could mean for Ecuador.
1. Militarization, extradition and toughening of penalties
Since violence intensified in Ecuador, about five years ago, the authorities of that country have decreed states of exception on a regular basis so that the armed forces can support the police in combating organized crime.
One of the objectives of the popular consultation is to allow complementary support from the military to the police. without the need to decree states of exception.
To do this, a partial reform of the Ecuadorian Constitution would be needed. If approved, the Armed Forces could give their support for a period of 180 days (plus another 30 extendable).
In the words of Noboa, Ecuadorians require “urgent reforms that allow us to protect our security.”
“This process can only continue, it can be sustained if we give the police and the armed forces the clear and firm support that we are proposing in the popular consultation”said the president
However, the measure has raised certain doubts.
Jorge Nunezco-founder of the Kaleidos center at the University of Cuenca – which in 2021 prepared a diagnosis of Ecuadorian prisons -, assures that it is “a mistake.”
“In recent months we have seen that the militarization of cities does not work. It’s trying to put out the fire with gasoline,” he tells BBC Mundo.
For his part, the sociologist and researcher of the Flacso political sociology program in Ecuador, Franklin Ramirezraises concern from a human rights perspective.
“It seems very complicated to me. Since January 9, 2024, when the internal armed conflict was declared in Ecuador, Complaints against the police and armed forces have multiplied regarding the use of force and violence against the most impoverished populations,” he warns in conversation with BBC Mundo.
The president of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (Conaie), Leonidas Izahas also expressed concern about this measure, warning that the military in the streets can do “whatever they want.”
In a public statement, Conaie noted that “the habitual use of the Armed Forces in internal security tasks could lead to a militarization of society, which can have negative implications in terms of human rights and civil liberties.”
It has a different look Matías Abadcolumnist and academic from the University of Azuay, who assures that the military can be good support for the police in these turbulent times that the country is experiencing.
“The armed forces can make a positive contribution by working jointly with the police on issues such as intelligence. They can team up, share information, draw up strategies and joint work operations against organized criminal groups,” he explains to BBC Mundo.
Another question in the popular consultation regarding security has to do with the penalties for crimes.
Ecuadorians will have to answer whether or not they agree with increasing these penalties in cases such as terrorism, organized crime, murder, contract killings, human trafficking or arms trafficking, among others.
To do this, the country would have to reform the Comprehensive Organic Criminal Code.
Once again, for Jorge Nuñez, who is also co-director of the Ecuador Prison Observatory and assistant professor at the University of Amsterdam, this measure is wrong.
“We know that increasing penalties does not necessarily solve or reduce crime,” he says.
“What it really does is put a lot more pressure on prison systems and make them more expensive. If Ecuador does not have control of its prisons, why could this be a good measure,” she asks.
“The only thing we are doing is aggravate the problem”, Add.
On the other hand, there are those who defend the measure indicating that it could be effective for certain types of crimes.
“There are people who point out that it is an issue of penal populismbut I think that if we add all the elements, that is, we give more competition to the armed forces and strengthen the prison system, increasing sentences could have a positive impact, especially in certain types of crimes that are much more frequent today. as “money laundering and illegal mining”indicates Matías Abad.
On the other hand, voters must decide whether They accept that some of their compatriots can be extradited for crimes classified in Ecuadorian legislation.
The extradition was already rejected in the previous popular consultation promoted by the former president Guillermo Lasso in February 2023, but the situation in Ecuador has worsened even more in the last year.
Daniel Noboa has emphasized the need to implement this measure in order to extradite “the most dangerous.”
Something that Matías Abad agrees with, who recently held the position of governor of Azuay where he had to work closely with the security forces.
For him, this policy “makes criminal groups and gang leaders uncomfortable.”
“That means that this is going to generate a additional tool to combat crime. Especially under the current prison system because going to prison today does not limit criminal activity,” he says.
Investigator Franklin Ramírez, meanwhile, recognizes that it can be a “tool that makes the bosses think that they will face more efficient justice.”
“But it is not going to be the key that will undo the knots in the fight against insecurity,” he adds.
This last point is shared by anthropologist Jorge Núñez.
“What citizens should know is that even if extradition is implemented, the processes take time because legal agreement between countries is needed,” he says.
“It is not a solution to the problems of violence. “It sounds like a big step but it’s really not.” he adds.
The Ecuadorian opposition has assured that the issues related to security that will be voted on in the popular consultation were already being discussed in the National Assembly.
They have therefore insisted that the referendum is “unnecessary”.
2. Labor flexibility and international arbitration
But beyond issues related to security, the popular consultation also addresses other topics.
One of them has to do with reforming the Ecuadorian Labor Code to legalize the fixed-term and hourly employment contract, something that the current Constitution of that country does not consider valid.
This could apply when a contract is first concluded between an employer and an employee.
According to the Minister of Labor, Ivonne Nunezthis will give the possibility of entering the formal market to “more than 70% of the economically active population, which does not have full or direct employment,” he said in an interview with the newspaper El Universo.
Among the recitals of the ballot that will be put to the vote, it is indicated that “the employment situation in Ecuador requires adopting measures to generate new modalities and jobs; without affecting legal security or the acquired rights of workers.”
However, the opposition to Noboa raises doubts about this.
“It will bring more poverty, contraction of the economy and job insecurity. Let’s not forget that before 2008 we already had that labor system. It never generated employment,” said Luisa González, the former Correísta presidential candidate (the largest opposition force that responds to former president Rafael Correa), in an interview with radio Huancavilca.
Jorge Núñez also believes that “job insecurity” will increase.
“This is not going to generate more dynamic markets. Ecuador’s problem is adequate employment. There is 60% informal commerce and they are the ones who are going to be most vulnerable,” she says.
“Then it will generate the opposite objective of what is sought: a thickening of the informal economy,” he adds.
For his part, Matías Abad affirms that the current labor regulations are “anachronistic” and do not regulate the new labor “dynamics.”
“So I think this is an opportunity for some segments to have more job options. For example, students. And from the company’s perspective, “an incentive to hire will be generated”it states.
Ecuadorians will also have to express their option when faced with a question about international arbitration.
“Do you agree that the Ecuadorian State recognizes international arbitration as a method to resolve investment, contractual or commercial disputes?” states the ballot.
According to the Noboa government, this provision is intended to protect foreign investors through international instruments and the provision of arbitrations for the resolution of possible conflicts.
“Voting Yes on the international arbitration question is voting for more foreign investment in the country,” said Vice Minister of Government, Esteban Torres, in an interview with the Hora 25 program.
The doctor in Jurisprudence and former judge of the Constitutional Court of Ecuador, Ramiro Ávila Santamaríawrote in a column published by the media GK that the current Ecuadorian Constitution prohibits arbitration because it was considered that “The State is placed in a vulnerable situation against transnational private agents.”
The academic explained that the reform proposed in the popular consultation would eliminate this prohibition and would put the States and private corporations on “equal conditions” and that, therefore, The Ecuadorian State would be weakened.
But Matías Abad indicates that “if Ecuador wants to receive more foreign investment, certain types of mechanisms are needed that provide legal security and stability.”
“Without a doubt arbitration will give that confidence and the country risk will decrease,” he indicates.
3. Political future of Daniel Noboa
When Daniel Noboa won Ecuador’s presidential elections in October of last year, he knew that his period in charge of the country would be short: only until May 2025.
This is because the outgoing president at that time, Guillermo Lasso, called for early elections, when the Legislative Assembly was debating a political trial against him.
But in February, Daniel Noboa announced what many already anticipated: that he will run for re-election in the presidential elections of February 2025.
The above has caused this popular consultation to be interpreted by many analysts as a kind of “electoral springboard” with which Noboa seeks to strengthen himself in the face of the presidential election if he wins it.
But it is also seen as a kind of referring to his management.
“Noboa has been talking about a popular consultation for a long time. In the logic of ‘candidate-president’ going to a plebiscite mechanism was, according to presidential calculations, a good platform for political communication,” says Flacso researcher Franklin Ramírez.
According to analysts, in recent weeks – and within this electoral logic – the president has tried to convey an image of “tough hand” and strong character against organized crime.
We have three weeks left until a popular consultation, one that narcoterrorist groups have already publicly stated that they are against.
They reject extradition, the military presence in prisons, and the strengthening of penalties against their crimes.
But… pic.twitter.com/HTQnmffVxx
— Daniel Noboa Azin (@DanielNoboaOk) April 2, 2024
For Ramírez, the most important thing is that if the Yes vote wins strongly, “His right-wing opponents are going to fall.” and the electoral path could be cleared.”
Jorge Núñez has a similar opinion.
“The consultation can be seen as the primaries of the right. If he wins, all those factions will accept Noboa as their leader.”
““It is the litmus test for the president.”he adds.
However, the assault on the Mexican embassy in Ecuador and the energy crisis could take away votes.
For experts, this could be very damaging thinking about their electoral future.
“If you lose the consultation, “It would be a very strong blow.”says Matías Abad.
“The real risk is that his image will sink and give way to new figures who aspire to occupy the same ideological space as the president,” adds the former governor.
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