Iran’s missile and drone attacks against Israel on Saturday, April 13 and the apparent Israeli response this Friday once again raise fears of a major escalation in the Middle East.
Although there were no significant casualties in Israel, last Saturday’s bombardment of more than 300 explosive projectiles demonstrated Iran’s ability to attack from a distance.
It was a significant escalation of what had long been a proxy conflict, with attacks on Israel by Iranian-allied groups and attacks on Iran-linked targets widely attributed to Israel.
Israel is already committed to the war in Gaza and also faces increased cross-border fighting with the Lebanese group Hezbollahso further escalation could pose risks.
After the Iranian attack, this Friday United States sources reported that Israel attacked Iran in the early morning, in apparent retaliation for what happened five days earlier.
In the attack against the Iranian region of Isfahan, where a significant part of the Iranian military infrastructure is located – including a large air base, a missile production complex and several nuclear facilities – no casualties were reported.
Which side has the advantage?
The BBC has analyzed this issue using the sources listed below, although each country may have significant capability that is kept secret.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) compares the firepower of the armies of both countries using a variety of official and open source methods to produce the best possible estimates.
Other organizations, such as the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, also make assessments, but accuracy can vary in countries that often do not provide figures.
However, Nicholas Marsh of the Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO) says the IISS is considered a benchmark for assessing the military strength of countries around the world.
IISS says that Israel spends more on its defense budget than Iranwhich provides him with significant strength in any potential conflict.
IISS says Iran’s defense budget was around $7.4 billion dollars in 2022 and 2023while that of Israel was more than double, around $19 billion.
Israel’s defense spending compared to its Gross Domestic Product (a measure of its economic output) is also twice that of Iran.
Technological advantage
IISS figures show that Israel has 340 combat-ready military aircraft, giving it an advantage in precision airstrikes.
The aircraft include F-15 long-range strike aircraft, F-35s (high-tech “stealth” aircraft that can evade radar), and fast attack helicopters.
IISS estimates that Iran has around 320 combat-capable aircraft. The planes date back to the 1960s and include the F-4, F-5, and F-14 (the latter being the plane made famous in the 1986 film Top Gun).
But PRIO’s Nicholas Marsh says that It’s unclear how many of these old planes can actually fly.because getting spare parts is extremely difficult.
Iron Dome and Arrow
The backbone of Israel’s defense are its Iron Dome (or Iron Dome) and Arrow systems.
Missile engineer Uzi Rubin is the founder of the Israel Missile Defense Organization in the country’s Defense Ministry.
Now a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, he told the BBC that he felt very safe when he saw Iron Dome and its international allies destroy almost all of the missiles and drones that Iran fired at Israel on Saturday.
“I felt very satisfied and very happy… He is very specialized against his objectives. It is a short-range missile defense. There is nothing like it anywhere else [sistema]”.
How far is Iran from Israel?
Israel is more than 2,100 kilometers from Iran.
Their missiles are the main method of attack, Defense Eye editor Tim Ripley tells the BBC.
Iran’s missile program is considered the largest and most diverse in the Middle East.
In 2022, General Kenneth McKenzie of the US Central Command said that Iran had “more than 3,000” ballistic missiles.
According to the CSIS Missile Defense Project, Israel also exports missiles to several countries.
Iran’s missiles and drones
Iran has carried out extensive work on its missile and drone systems since its war with neighboring Iraq (1980-1988).
It has developed short and long range missiles and drones, many of which were recently fired into Israel.
Analysts studying missiles aimed at Saudi Arabia by Houthi rebels have concluded they were manufactured in Iran.
“Punish” with long-range attacks
Defense Eye’s Tim Ripley says Israel is highly unlikely to venture into a ground war with Iran: “Israel’s big advantage is its air power and guided weapons. Therefore, it has the potential to launch airstrikes against key targets in Iran.”
Ripley says that The most likely scenario in the event of an armed conflict would be that Israel would kill officials and destroy oil facilities from the air..
“’Punish’ is at the heart of this…Israeli military and political leaders use that word all the time. It is part of their philosophy, that they have to inflict pain to make their opponents think twice before confronting Israel. “
In the past, high-profile Iranian military and civilian figures have been killed in airstrikes, including the April 1 destruction of an Iranian consulate building in the Syrian capital, which prompted Iran’s attack.
Israel has not claimed responsibility for that attack or for several attacks against prominent Iranian officials.
But he has not denied his responsibility either.
Naval forces
Iran’s aging navy has about 220 ships, while Israel’s has about 60, according to IISS reports.
Cyberattacks
Israel has more to lose than Iran in a cyber attack.
Iran’s defense system is less technologically advanced than Israel’s, so an electronic attack against the Israeli military could achieve much more.
The Israeli government’s National Cyber Directorate says that “the intensity of cyber attacks is greater than ever, at least three times greater, and with attacks in all Israeli sectors. Cooperation between Iran and Hezbollah (the Lebanese political and militant organization) increased during the war.”
Reports that there was 3,380 cyberattacks between Hamas attacks on October 7 and the end of 2023.
The head of Iran’s Civil Defense Organization, Brigadier General Gholamreza Jalali, said Iran thwarted nearly 200 cyberattacks in the month leading up to recent parliamentary elections.
In December, Iran’s Oil Minister Javad Owji said a cyberattack caused problems at gas stations across the country.
nuclear threat
Israel supposedly has its own nuclear weapons, but maintains an official policy of deliberate ambiguity.
Iran is not believed to have nuclear weapons and, despite accusations to the contrary, denies that it is attempting to use its civilian nuclear program to become a nuclear weapons state.
Geography and demographics
Iran is a much larger country than Israel and its population (about 89 million) is almost ten times that of Israel (almost 10 million).
It also has about six times as many soldiers in service as Israel. There are 600,000 active troops in Iran, while Israel has 170,000, IISS says.
How could Israel retaliate?
Beyond Israel’s limited attack on Iran this Friday, radical militants backed by Tehran in neighboring countries, who regularly launch attacks against Israeli interests, could become targets.
Before Friday’s attack, Jeremy Binnie, a Middle East defense expert at Jane’s, considered it unlikely that Israel would retaliate immediately: “Potentially, they have a variety of options if they wanted to retaliate, such as bombing sites in Lebanon or Syria.” .
Binnie doubts there will be a large-scale conventional war. “The army is not going to fight, the navy is not going to fight, they (Iran and Israel) “They are very far from each other.”.
“We are facing a situation where both sides have long-range strike capabilities against the other side’s air defenses. “We saw some of that with Iran’s long-range strike capabilities against Israel’s defense on Saturday and Sunday.”
He says that for an attack Israel would have to violate the airspace of sovereign countries such as Syria, Jordan and Iraq.
However, Israel has an experienced secret service that could carry out clandestine operations inside Iran.
“The letter from Iran”
Middle East affairs expert Tariq Sulaiman warns that there are pro-war members of Israel’s Parliament and Cabinet who want war, and who are pressuring Israel’s prime minister to act: “Every time Netanyahu finds himself politically vulnerable, he immediately uses the Iran card.”.
A poll by Israel’s Hebrew University found that nearly three-quarters of the Israeli public oppose a retaliatory strike against Iran if such action would damage Israel’s security alliance with its allies.
What is the “proxy war” between Israel and Iran?
Although Israel and Iran have not fought a war formal to date, both countries have been in an unofficial conflict. Senior Iranian figures in other countries have been killed in attacks attributed to Israel, while Iran attacks Israel through its proxies.
The militant and political group Hezbollah is waging the largest of Iran’s “proxy wars” against Israel from Lebanon. Iran does not deny its support for Hezbollah.
His support for Hamas in Gaza is similar. Hamas organized the October 7 attacks on Israel and has fired rockets from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territories for decades.
Israel and the Western powers believe that Iran provides weapons, ammunition and training to Hamas.
The Houthis in Yemen are also seen as another proxy for Iran. Saudi Arabia says the Houthi missiles fired at it were made in Iran.
Iran-backed groups They also have considerable power in Iraq and Syria. Iran supports the Syrian government and is said to be using Syrian territory to attack Israel.
Additional reporting by Ahmen Khawaja, Carla Rosch and Reza Sabeti and Chris Partridge
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