Iran’s daring attack on Israel on Saturday has led to the scenario that Joe Biden most feared and that, by all means, he sought to avoid after the Hamas attack on October 7: an escalation of the conflict in the region.
The tightrope the US president walks in the war between Israel and Gaza has grown even thinner. Biden is trying to de-escalate the situation and deter Iran, as he faces domestic pressure from both Democrats and Republicans over his country’s relationship with Israel.
Meanwhile, any Ceasefire agreement in Gaza hangs by a thread.
Just two weeks ago, it seemed that the relationship between the United States and Israel – once the closest of alliances – was in trouble.
Biden not only expressed his frustration but also his annoyance at the lack of humanitarian aid in Gaza and the death of seven volunteers in an attack by the Israel Defense Forces.
The level of disagreement was such that the US government made it clear that it might reconsider its stance toward Israel, even going so far as to withhold arms exports.
But Iran’s actions over the weekend seem to have changed the scenario.
Iran’s response
The launch of more than 300 missiles and drones fired at Israel led to a very successful joint military action of the United States and Israel to defend the country.
The coordinated action appears to have rekindled some of the old cordiality. And the White House hopes to take advantage of it to influence Israel’s response.
U.S. officials are not naïve enough to think there will be no response, but they want to calibrate it in such a way that it can be seen as a act of moderation.
But the weekend’s joint military success also masks a fundamental and worrying shift in the regional situation, according to Dennis Ross, a former U.S. envoy to the region with more than 40 years of diplomatic experience in the Middle East.
According to Ross, Iran’s direct retaliation against Israeli territory for the attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria by its elite Quds Force officers has “rewritten the rules” of the relationship between Israel and Iranfurther destabilizing an already precarious situation.
Iran has for years strengthened allied groups sworn to destroy Israel, financing and arming Palestinian groups such as Hamas and the Shiite militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon.
But Saturday was the first time since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that Iran launched a direct attack against Israel. Therefore, regardless of how one interprets the success of military technology that effectively neutralized Iran’s actions, a Rubicon has been crossed.
This, according to Ross, means that there has been a “failure of deterrent measures” towards Iran.
Biden’s challenge
Biden now faces a uncomfortable paradox.
The president has to lower the temperature with Iran and, at the same time, make Tehran understand that its actions have a cost.
After Saturday’s attack, the White House made it clear that would not join any Israeli military retaliation against Iranwhile stating that his commitment to Israel’s security remained “ironclad.”
Iran’s direct involvement in the current war also makes it difficult to reach a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and the release of hostages held by Hamas.
American diplomats have been working around the clock to get Israel to agree to a six-week pause in fighting that allows the release of both the Gaza hostages and the Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
The agreement would also facilitate the arrival of much-needed aid to Gaza, where famine is imminent. Before the weekend, they had the support of Israel and the pressure was on Hamas.
All of that is now in danger as The world waits to see how Israel responds.
Meanwhile, the internal complications for the president American are still present. Part of the left pressures him to distance himself from Israel and the right accuses him of weakness for not confronting Iran firmly enough.
“I understand it in an election year. One wants to contain things. It’s perfectly understandable,” says Ross, who played a key role in the Middle East peace process under George Bush and Bill Clinton.
“But in the same way, we have an Iran that has taken a step that it had not taken before. And by taking that step you are showing your willingness to cross certain thresholds and the more you cross certain thresholds, the more accustomed you become to doing it. And as a result the region becomes much more dangerous“.
All of this, of course, is fraught with the potential for misunderstanding and miscalculation. One wrong step could trigger a chain reaction that could get out of control quickly.
The region is a notorious tinderbox and could flare up even more at any time.
The world contains the breath.
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