One of the biggest concerns of voters in the last presidential elections in the United States was immigration control on that country’s border with Mexico.
After his resounding electoral victory, President-elect Donald Trump confirmed his intention to declare a national emergency (which would allow him to obtain additional resources) and use the army to implement his plan for the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants.
His newly appointed “border czar,” Tom Homan, has said that undocumented immigrants who are considered a threat to national security or public safety will be a priority, without offering further details.
And incoming Vice President JD Vance has stated that deportations could begin with one million people.
When Trump arrives at the White House on January 20, 2025, it is possible that he will immediately begin the deportation process as he has promised countless times.
“We are going to close the border because right now we have an invasion,” said Joe Biden’s successor.
“We are going to carry out the largest deportation operation in the history of the United States”.
According to the latest estimate from the Department of Homeland Security, with data until 2022, there are 11 million undocumented people in the United States.
Experts project that today that number of people would have increased to at least 12 million..
How much do they contribute to the country’s economy?
The debate is intense because many of the figures are estimates and because there is little recent information.
Some research indicates that undocumented immigrants increase the size of the economy, pay more in taxes than they receive in public services, do the work that others are not willing to do, and increase domestic consumption.
On the other hand, supporters of deportations assure that the “undocumented” take away jobs from Americans, have low salaries, consume little, pay no taxes (or pay very little) and are a burden on assistance networks. social.
Who are the undocumented in the United States?
Of all the undocumented immigrants living in the United States, about 3 million are not “deportable”since they have permission to live and work in the country, as Jeffrey Passel, researcher at the Pew Research Center, explains to BBC Mundo.
In that group are those people who have requested asylum, those who have applied for Temporary Protected Status (TPS), those who belong to the program for people who arrived as children (DACA), and those who are in the country with permits. temporary permanence known as parole.
However, under the new administration, there may be changes that take away that protection for those who do not have a permanent residence.
As the number of immigrants crossing the southern border has skyrocketed in the last couple of years, it is possible that there are many more undocumented immigrants than estimates indicate.
Whatever their status, Passel says, “what we know is that they contribute to the increase in the size of the economy.”
Gabriela entered the United States more than two decades ago in the trunk of a smuggler’s car..
Now a domestic worker in Maryland, the Bolivian is one of the millions of undocumented immigrants living in the country.
She is not worried about what might happen with the deportations.
“Actually, I’m not scared at all,” he tells the BBC. “That’s something criminals have to worry about. “I pay taxes and work.”
Others, however, worry that their family will be divided.
Brenda, a dreamer (as people protected by the DACA program who arrived in the United States irregularly as minors are told) thinks that her husband and mother could be deported.
Their two children were born in the United States and are American citizens.
“The idea of being separated is scary”he explains to the BBC.
These are some of the contributions made by this group of people who are currently at the center of a political battle that deeply divides the country.
Labor market
According to the Pew Research Center Undocumented immigrants represent about 5% of the workforce in the United States.
Most of them are employed in agricultural work, construction, domestic service, restaurants and hotels.
Nan Wu, research director at the American Immigration Council (AIC), an organization that advocates for immigrant rights, says there are industries like construction and agriculture that have labor shortages.
A mass deportation would complicate things for employers. “It would make it even more difficult for them to find enough workers,” Wu tells BBC Mundo.
It would likely increase production costs, cause delays in construction projects and lead to disruptions in services, he argues.
“It would make food and housing even less affordable in many parts of the country” and would cause an increase in inflation.
Potentially the most affected are agricultural workers. Estimates indicate that between 40% and 50% of them are undocumented.
Regarding remuneration, several studies maintain that undocumented immigrants are not really competition for the “documented” workforce, to the extent that they do more risky, poorly paid jobs that many are not willing to do.
“It is not a zero-sum game,” wrote Chloe East, a non-resident fellow at the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution think tank.
The evidence shows that the belief that when an undocumented person takes a job, an American loses it, is not true..
payment of taxes
How much do undocumented immigrants pay in taxes?
According to the Institute for Fiscal and Economic Policy (ITEP), undocumented immigrants paid almost US$97.7 billion in taxes in 2022.
They did it, and they do it, every time they buy a product or service, when they rent or acquire property and when they pay taxes on personal and business income..
A part of these resources, points out the ITEP, It was intended to finance public services that they cannot access by law.such as social security, unemployment insurance, or most health programs for people in a precarious economic situation.
The American Immigration Council, on the other hand, estimates that in 2022 the tax payment made by undocumented immigrants was close to US$76 billion.
Beyond the different estimates on the tax contribution, what is clear is that there is a significant contribution of resources.
“A mass deportation would deprive federal, state and local governments of billions of dollars in tax revenue,” says Nan Wu.
However, supporters of deportations argue that these people They are a net fiscal burden because they receive more resources in government services than they pay in taxes.
Consumption, inflation and economic growth
A study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) suggests that if the deportation plans announced by Trump come to fruition (under the assumption that they affect 1.3 million people), the consequences for growth economic would be negative.
They estimate that by 2028, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would decrease by 1.2% and jobs would decrease.
On the other hand, they argue, the undocumented are also consumers.
“Deporting them means less demand for food, shelter, utilities, and other household needs,” write Anjali Bhatt, Megan Hogan, Marcus Noland, and Warwick J. McKibbin.
From his perspective, “Mass deportations would raise prices, cost jobs, and harm the U.S. economy.”.
The current political debate has focused on the arrival of undocumented immigrants in the last couple of years.
Little information is available about this period, given that the available studies work with data until 2022.
However, what is officially known is that Last year there were a record 2.5 million immigrants crossing the southern borderaccording to the Department of Homeland Security.
These people request asylum and, while they wait for several years for a response to their request, they are allowed to live and work in the United States as undocumented immigrants, contributing to the economy.
But “A bigger economy does not necessarily equal a better economy.”says an article in Wall Street Journal.
Economists have warned that “recent immigrants are expected to have lower wages and be less productive than their predecessors,” the publication notes.
Although in the long term, he adds, they could have a positive effect by being younger than the average American population.
Because they have longer working lives, they tend to contribute more in taxes than they receive in benefits..
When Donald Trump arrives at the White House in less than two months, he is expected to deliver the details of his deportation plan which, as he has promised, will begin on the first day he assumes the presidency.
Meanwhile, the announcement that he is going to declare a national emergency and that he will use the army to deport undocumented immigrants resonates in the ears of those who may be affected.
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