By Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera*
02 Dec 2024, 11:58 AM EST
Trump says that in order to address the fentanyl crisis in his country—which represents a huge social problem, as well as the death of tens of thousands of Americans each year—Mexican cartels should be designated international terrorist organizations. . He promises that he will make it. But that’s not all. The future American president does not rule out a direct military incursion into Mexican territory to confront the “bad men” of our country. In other words, Donald Trump has warned/threatened Mexico several times, saying that if the Mexican government fails in its fight against what they call “cartels”—or drug trafficking networks are not effectively dismantled—then the U.S. military will be forced to to militarily invade the neighboring country to the south.
The literal declaration of a “war against Mexican cartels” seems far-fetched, but to this day we don’t know what Trump’s warning really means. We do not know for sure if the United States would be able to send its army to Mexico to put an end to something they call cartels, or rather if this is just a tool of pressure, threat and ‘strong hand’ negotiation of the movement. America First to direct its southern neighbor to where it suits them. However, and regardless of whether or not Trump dares to send his men from the Department of Defense (DOD) to fight against our bad men, it seems that the United States has been operating an adequate and effective strategy. (for them) amid the weaknesses of our federal government and some key state governments of Morenoist extraction.
I speak in particular of the cases of Sinaloa and Sonora. Indeed, now the Department of Justice of the neighboring country has luxury protected witnesses (after the arrests of El Mayo and Los Chapitos) and an anti-cartel narrative has been built that is nourished by propaganda in the media, social networks, television series and the world of entertainment in general, as well as with actions of “criminal paramilitarism.” This, combined with corruption and impunity at all levels, hinders the effective operation of the Mexican government against organized crime. On the other hand, the action of some key local and state governments further deepens the security problem in Mexico and leaves the country at a crossroads and in the clutches of Trump.
The situation in Sinaloa is particularly delicate. The constant confrontations between groups of hitmen, burning of businesses, ambushes, multiple homicides, disappearances and even the cancellation of commercial flights due to violence in the state capital, give the impression of a situation of total lack of control on the part of state and federal authorities. . In this context, Governor Rubén Rocha Moya is strongly questioned and navigates the misgovernment of the entity. He also faces serious, as yet unconfirmed, allegations of links to organized crime and other murky issues related to the events that led to the current situation (the arrest of El Mayo and a Chapito).
For their part, important regions in the state of Sonora seem ungovernable. “Ciudad Obregón, Guaymas, Empalme, Altar, Caborca, Sonoyta and the Santana area have become zones of war and terror, where the hostages are the citizens of Sonora, including one or another mayor, migrant or occasional visitor—Mexican or even foreigner, as I published in The Universal. Recently, US Army veteran Sisson Jason Thomas, 44, a victim of organized crime, was injured; Until recently he was in a delicate state of health. In this border entity, whoever completely failed as Secretary of Citizen “Security and Protection”—and gave the final blow to the civilian police reform project, thus justifying a dangerous process of militarization—that is, Governor Alfonso Durazo, looks negligently at the loss of territory in certain regions at the hands of organized crime. All of this, in the midst of opacity in specific infrastructure works (such as a “ghost train”) and making promises of renewable energy projects that may never come true.
In the midst of the tragedy, the federal government also fails us, of course, as well as the local media and civil society. What is happening in Culiacán, for example? In the midst of horror and extreme violence, it is worrying that the federal and state governments are so omissive, negligent and incapable of resolving a pressing situation regarding insecurity. It is also sad that the most important Sinaloan businessmen have not done something forceful and do not wish to speak clearly. Where is the organized and privileged civil society of Sinaloa? They also have a responsibility to their state and to its people. When will they recognize it?
The same thing happens in Sonora. The most important business community and the local media seem to be absent, since the complaint does not go so far as to point out those responsible, who are perhaps at the highest levels of the state government. The government’s inattention in some regions where criminals reign and where some of its inhabitants—truly desperate and unconscious—begin to long for the presence of Trump’s men is disconcerting. Thus, in the midst of tragedy, the way is prepared for the advance of the commander in chief of the armed movement of America First. In Sinaloa and Sonora, the soon-to-be president who champions a “new era” for the United States, can find two great excuses for his war (or threat thereof) in what he could consider his “backyard.”
The Dr. Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera
is a professor at the Schar School of Politics and Government at George Mason University.
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