The revival of the war in Syria is the latest fallout from the turmoil that has gripped the Middle East since the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7 last year.
The attacks, and Israel’s response, altered the status quo in the region. The events that have occurred in Syria in recent days are further proof that The war ravaging the Middle East is escalating, not decreasing.
During a decade of war since 2011, Bashar al Assad’s government survived because it was willing to break up Syria to save the regime he had inherited from his father.
To do this, it relied on powerful allies, Russia, Iran and the Lebanese group Hezbollah. They intervened on their side against rebel groups ranging from the jihadist extremists of the Islamic State to militias supported by the United States and the wealthy monarchies of the Gulf.
Now Iran is reeling from the harsh blows Israel, with US support, has inflicted on its security. Its ally Hezbollah, which used to send its best men to fight for the Assad regime in Syria, has been crippled by Israel’s attacks. Russia has launched airstrikes in recent days against the rebel offensive in Syria, but its military power is almost entirely devoted to fighting the war in Ukraine.
The war in Syria is not over. It no longer occupies its usual place in the headlines, partly because of turbulence in the rest of the world, and partly because it is almost impossible for journalists to enter the country.
In some places the war was suspended, or frozen, but Syria is full of unfinished business.
The Assad regime has failed to regain the power it had before 2011the year of the Arab revolts.
Even so, until a few days ago, it controlled the main cities, their surroundings and the main roads that connect them.
But a coalition of rebel groups, led by Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)stormed into Idlib, one of the provinces bordering Turkey, and in just a few days (from November 27) swept away the Syrian troops in a series of “astonishing” events, in the words of a senior international diplomat.
Within two days of the offensive, the rebels were already publishing photos of fighters who had gained control of the ancient citadel of Aleppo, which between 2012 and 2015, when the city was divided between rebels and regime forces, had been an impenetrable base for government troops.
The atmosphere in Aleppo seems calm after the defeat of government troops. A photo on social media showed uniformed and armed rebel fighters lining up to buy fried chicken at a fast food outlet.
HTS has roots in Al Qaedaalthough he split from the group in 2016 and has sometimes fought against his most loyal members. However, the UN Security Council, the United States, the European Union, Turkey and the United Kingdom continue to consider HTS a terrorist group. (The Syrian regime describes all its opponents as terrorists).
HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jawlani has a long history as a jihadist leader in Iraq and Syria. In recent years, however, he has moved away from strict jihadist ideology to try to broaden his group’s appeal.
The makeover is also being used to attract support for the offensive, which HTS calls Operation to Repel Aggression. That name, and its official announcements, They avoid jihadist language and Islamist references.
The neutral language, according to BBC Monitoring jihadist media specialist Mina al-Lami, is designed to disentangle what is happening now from HTS’s jihadist past and present the offensive as a joint rebel initiative against the regime.
In general, Syrians reject extreme religious rhetoric. As jihadist groups came to dominate the rebellion after pro-democracy demonstrations were crushed within the first year of the war, many Syrians remained neutral or reluctantly sided with the regime because they feared the ideology. jihadist of the Islamic State.
The current HTS-led offensive arises from the fragmented political landscape of northern Syria. Much of the northeast is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led and US-backed group, which maintains about 900 troops in the area.
Türkiye is an important actor, controlling the border areas where it has deployed its own troops, as well as militias that it sponsors. Hidden cells of the remnants of the Islamic State sometimes stage deadly ambushes on roads through the Syrian desert.
According to reports from Syria, rebel forces have captured significant supplies of military equipment, including helicopters, and they are advancing towards Hama, the next major city on the road to Damascus.
Undoubtedly, the regime and its allies will strive to stabilize and counterattack, especially with air force. The rebels have no air force, although, in another sign that unmanned aerial vehicles are revolutionizing warfare, there are reports that they used a drone to kill a senior regime intelligence official.
The resumption of fighting in Syria is causing great international alarm. The UN envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen, issued a statement saying that “the latest developments raise serious risks for the civilian population and they have serious implications for regional and international security (…) None of the existing Syrian parties or groups of actors can resolve the Syrian conflict through military means.”
Pedersen added that there was “a collective failure to achieve a genuine political process” to implement UN Security Council resolution 2254, passed in 2015. It established a roadmap for peace, based on the principle that “The Syrian people will decide the future of Syria.”
The goal was a future shaped by free elections and a new Constitution. But that meant Assad and his family would relinquish power in a country they treated for years as their personal fiefdom. More than half a million dead testify to his determination not to allow that to happen.
It is too early to consider the Assad regime dead. It has a core of genuine support. Some Syrians see it as the least bad option, better than the jihadists who came to dominate the rebellion. But if other anti-Assad groups – and there are many – rise up, his regime will once again be in mortal danger.
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