When a missile hit the Ukrainian city of Dnieper in the early hours of November 21, at first not much was known, not even what type of projectile it was.
Pavel Aksenov, a military expert for the BBC Russian news service, analyzed the evidence surrounding this missile and what message Russian President Vladimir Putin was trying to send to Ukraine and the West by using it.
Putin declared that the attack on the city of Dnieper in eastern Ukraine was carried out using “a new intermediate-range conventional missile” codenamed Oreshnik.
Although Ukraine denies this and claims that it was possibly a Kedr missile, there is not much chance that it is that type of weapon.
Launching a ballistic missile at such a distance can’t go unnoticedespecially in a region that is closely watched by many intelligence agencies.
The missile is clearly visible during flight, particularly the burning flame coming from the rocket motor, which can be captured by satellites and reconnaissance aircraft.
The exhaust of missiles, which are often observed during tests or exercises, allow you to learn a lot and get to know the characteristics of different rockets.
Analysts can deduce even more by studying the launch data of a new missile.
Although the western intelligence agencies have not published their findings, it is likely that they have a fairly precise idea of the type of missile.
For their part, experts and commentators in the media and social networks have developed their own theories based on other clues.
The most repeated version is that Russia adapted the experimental Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for intermediate-range attacks.
What do we know about the Oreshnik?
In his statement, Putin assured that the missile was equipped with a “non-nuclear hypersonic payload” and that its warheads “attacked targets at a speed of Mach 10, that is, from 2.5 to 3 km/s“.
The absence of a nuclear warhead was evident, although its hypersonic speed has been questioned.
In its report on ballistic nuclear missiles, the non-governmental organization Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation offers a lower figure: 3,200 km/h, almost 900 m/s.
It is very difficult to intercept warheads traveling at such speeds.
This missile had a detachable warhead, and it is this that caused the most confusion among experts.
A video recorded at the moment of impact in Dnieper shows six clusters of objects falling to the groundof which each contains approximately six bright spots. It is considered a fairly high figure for a missile of this type.
However, no explosions were observed on the ground, indicating that the bright spots could be kinetic submunitions.
These can vary in size and are essentially metal projectiles that attempt to destroy the target using the kinetic energy released during impact which, due to the high velocity, can be significant.
Several sources indicate that the missile was launched from the Kapustin Yar test range in the Astrakhan region of Russia.
In that case, the range of the missile in this launch would be between 800 and 850 kilometers.
Vladimir Putin referred to the Oreshnik as an intermediate-range missile. The range of this type of missile usually ranges between 1,000 and 5,500 kilometers, although these are only official figures and the missile can be fired at shorter distances.
Where was the missile manufactured?
Most likely, the Oreshnik that Putin mentioned was developed in the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology (MIT).
In Russia there are two entities that develop ballistic missiles of this class: the Makeyev Rocket Center and MIT.
The first focuses on liquid-fuel missiles, which are heavy, launched from silos and have a very long range. For example, the official range of the Sarmat missile is up to 18,000 kilometers.
The Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology specializes in creating smaller missiles with solid fuel engines that are launched from mobile launchers.
These missiles are lighter, have smaller warheads and fly shorter distances. For example, the Yars missile has a range of 12,000 km.
A missile like the one that hit Dnieper is most likely the work of MIT.
This center had previously created similar missiles, such as the RSD-10 Pioneer, which was in service from the 1970s until the entry into force of the Treaty on Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) in 1988.
At that time, all USSR and US intermediate and shorter range missiles and launchers were destroyed and both sides agreed not to produce, test or deploy such projectiles in the future.
When was the missile created?
The INF Treaty expired in 2019, so the development of this type of missile – at least in terms of its practical application – would have begun after that date.
At that time, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia intended to create a medium-range land-based missile system by 2020. Although this did not happen, the project continued.
One of the latest developments from MIT is the RS-26 Rubezhan intercontinental ballistic missile. According to unofficial information, its range is between 2,000 and 6,000 km, so it barely exceeds the range limits of the INF.
MIT developed it even before the treaty was prescribed. According to the state agency TASS, Colonel General Sergei Karakaev, commander of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces, revealed some characteristics of the missile in 2013.
“If we talk about the Yars mobile land missile (referring to the RS-26 Rubezh) the launch vehicle weighs more than 120 tons. In this modernized missile, we will reach 80 tons, making it lighter,” Karakaev declared.
In other words, Russia was initially developing a lighter missile based on the Yars which exceeded the INF limits by just 500 km.
As a result, experts agree that the Oreshnik mentioned by Putin is probably a missile system with a range of 800 km or a later development of that system, designed for an even shorter range.
The importance of the INF Treaty
The INF Treaty was intended reduce tensions in Europe.
The idea of nuclear deterrence works for intercontinental ballistic missiles, whose launches can be detected by warning systems, which would give enough time to respond with a counterattack.
The same applies to strategic bombers.
But this doesn’t work if a missile’s flight time is measured in mere minutes.
Short- and medium-range missiles were one of the most important factors preventing an effective strategic nuclear deterrent.
Capable of carrying nuclear warheads, they were almost impossible to intercept or destroy and, therefore, there was no opportunity for a counterattack as there was not enough time.
Furthermore, the mobile launchers for these missiles were very difficult to detect and destroy with a first attack.
The presence of short and medium range missiles near the borders could generate a military conflict as it is an almost impossible threat to defend, which could cause a preemptive nuclear strike.
The warnings
The attack on Dnieper marked the first combat use of a missile of this type. Putin announced that Russia would warn against the use of this class of projectiles.
“Thirty minutes before the launch of the Oreshnik missile, Russia sent the United States an automatic notification through the nuclear risk reduction center,” said President Putin’s spokesman, Dimitri Peskov.
The day before the missile launch, the United States closed its embassy in Kyiv due to “specific information about a possible major airstrike”.
The embassies of Spain, Italy and Greece also closed, while those of France and Germany remained open, but warned their citizens to remain alert.
In Ukrainian Telegram channels, the possibility of Russia using the Rubezh missile against Ukraine was being considered even before its launch. In particular, it was specified that the rocket had been deployed at the Kapustin Yar test site.
In any case, the possibility of using a new weapon had already been previously announced by the chairman of the State Duma, Viacheslav Volodin.
“The use of new weapons systems that the Russian Federation has not used so far on Ukrainian territory cannot be ruled out,” he reported on November 18.
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