Mexico is perhaps the country most affected in the world by what is happening in the United States.
The reasons are of all kinds: the 3,000 kilometer border they sharebecause it is its largest trading partner, because millions of families have members in both countries.
But if it is the most affected for structural reasons, it is also for cyclical reasons.
Donald Trump was elected this Tuesday as the new president of the United States in part thanks to its aggressive agenda towards Mexicowhich includes high tariffs on imports from that country and the deportation of undocumented Mexicans who are in US territory.
The president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaumwanted to calm things down in his press conference on Wednesday: “There is no reason for concern (…) Mexico will always be an independent and sovereign country. There will be a good relationship. We do not compete with each other, we complement each other (…) There is a lot of unity and a lot of strength in the Mexican economy.”
However, the alarm signals are on.
“For Sheinbaum it is going to be an enormous challenge,” says Juan Gabriel Tokatlián, doctor in international relations. “If this policy of evicting migrants is carried out and if there is extreme protectionism concentrated in the United States, it will be a very complicated situation for Mexico.”
These are the four areas on which the complex relationship between Mexico and the United States will revolve over the next 4 years.
1. Economy
On Wednesday, the Mexican peso registered its worst mark in two years, of almost 21 pesos per dollar, due to Trump’s victory.
Although devaluation is a normal trend in emerging countries after the elections in the world’s leading economy and was initially a less drastic fall than expected, foreign investors believe that the trade restrictions promised by Trump may affect the performance of the Mexican economy. .
For several reasons.
The remittances that Mexicans in the United States send each month to their families are one of the pillars of this country’s consumer economy.: They are, according to official figures, between the second and third largest income after tourism and oil sales.
That source of income could be affected by Trump’s deportations and tariffs.
During the campaign, the Republican also said that he plans to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico if the country does not stop the illegal trafficking of migrants.
He also assured that he will sanction the transshipment of Chinese products through Mexico and impose a 500% tariff on cars produced by Chinese companies in Mexico.
According to the Capital Economics think tank, a 10% tariff on products imported from Mexico would mean a 1.5% reduction in Mexican GDP.
During the first Trump administration, between 2017 and 2021, the trade war with China benefited Mexicosince companies that produced there moved their factories closer to the US, locating them in the Latin American country.
Thanks to this, last year Mexico became the largest importer to the United States in the world, among other reasons because it enjoys a Free Trade Agreement that facilitates the import of products from one country to another.
NAFTA, also signed with Canada, will have to be ratified in 2026 by the three countries.
Although in 2020 Trump agreed to sign it, it is most likely that he will now use it as a negotiating mechanism against two of his great obsessions: the trade battle with China and migration.
“The question is what type of protectionism Trump wants: if it is concentrated in the United States, without considering Canada and Mexico, or if he does it with them but avoiding triangulation with China,” explains Tokatlián.
2. Migration
The other major axis of the bilateral relationship is going to be migration.
Trump promised to deport a million undocumented migrants a year and said he will resume construction of the border wall between the two countries.
Both promises are difficult to fulfill, experts say, because they are costly and could affect the U.S. economy, which partly depends on migrant labor.
However, with only part of the promised “mass deportation” being carried out, there are reasons for concern in Mexico.
It is estimated that 5 million Mexicans are in the United States in an irregular situation.
“Mexico is going to insist on dialogue and report on what it is already doing,” says Yanerit Morgan, a Mexican diplomat and academic.
To avoid tariffs, The government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador agreed to detain migrants and managed to reduce the flow of people entering the United States.
“Sheinbaum is going to continue with that policy, but he is going to have to greatly strengthen the consulting network in the United States, not only because of the deportations, but because of the treatment of Mexicans there,” says Morgan.
The new Mexican president has insisted that transnational migration must be addressed through social solutions in the countries of origin, an initiative that in principle does not appear in the Trumpist manual.
3. Drug trafficking
Added to the equation is the complex issue of illegal drug trafficking.
More than 80,000 people died in the United States last year from fentanyl, a powerful opioid produced and trafficked from Mexico.
Trump promised to bomb fentanyl laboratories in Mexicoblock Mexican ports that transport their precursors and designate Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations.
None of these initiatives have been commented on by Sheinbaum, but at least in principle they sound like measures that in Mexico would strike a chord with interference.
In July, the bilateral relationship entered into crisis due to the arrest in the United States of Mexican drug lord Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada. The operation was not notified to the Mexican government and that generated displeasure in the National Palace.
Although the two governments will have new leaders when Trump is sworn in in January, the issue will inevitably be addressed with this background and under the historical Mexican concern, although marked in this government, to protect its sovereignty.
4. Politics
All of the above will depend on the relationship established by the heads of state, who, in principle, are very fateful: he, conservative and capitalist, won in part thanks to his rejection of what he calls “radical feminism”; She, a leftist and critic of neoliberalism, has a deep concern for the feminist cause.
In the two and a half years that AMLO and Trump coincided, a cordial, pragmatic relationship was established, prone to negotiation, which left many surprised by their ideological differences.
AMLO went on to write a book titled “Hey, Trump” in which he explained the importance of migrants to the United States and proposed non-police measures to address migration.
Experts expect Sheinbaum to maintain the pragmatism of his predecessor. Before the elections she said that she is going to work with whoever wins.
“Sheinbaum has enough character to have an interesting, important, horizontal dialogue with him. She came with strong popular support and that is something Trump cannot deny,” says Morgan.
The bilateral relationship has gone through all kinds of difficult situations. In 2016 it was believed that Trump would be a problem for Mexico and the result was almost the opposite. Now a different Trump arrives, perhaps more ambitious, and the first female president governs in Mexico, a progressive and environmentalist, who enjoys notable popular support. In any case, another challenging situation is coming.
click here to read more stories from BBC News Mundo.
Subscribe here to our new newsletter to receive a selection of our best content of the week every Friday.
You can also follow us on YouTube, instagram, TikTok, x, Facebook and in our new whatsapp channelwhere you will find breaking news and our best content.
And remember that you can receive notifications in our app. Download the latest version and activate them.