The election of Donald Trump as president of the United States in this Tuesday’s elections seems to defy the most basic rules of political gravity.
At 78 years old, Trump not only overcame his 2020 election loss to Joe Biden but also several legal cases he faces, one of which this year made him the first former US president to be criminally convicted.
The Republican leader who was accused of trying to annul the elections that four years ago ended with a violent attack by his followers on the Capitol and whose political positions still cause concern inside and outside the country, is preparing to return triumphantly to the White House.
So how has he done it?
“(Trump) is very astute. He never gives up or misses anything,” explains Joshua Sandman, emeritus professor of political science at the University of New Haven and expert on the US presidency, in an interview with BBC Mundo.
What follows is a summary of the telephone conversation with this academic who has investigated Trump’s political rise since its inception:
Why did Donald Trump obtain such a clear electoral victory?
Harris’ campaign was not good enough, it was aimed at criticizing Trump’s negative personality traits.
Everyone knows that, but the economy and immigration were primary issues.
Democrats did not respond quickly enough to the issue of immigration with Biden in office, nor to inflation, rising interest rates or housing prices.
People thought they were better off under the Trump administration than under the Biden administration.
I believe that people are rational in their thinking. Everyone knew Trump’s personality difficulties in being president as he was so negative and critical. But they took more into account the feeling that the economy was better under him and immigration problems were better addressed in the Trump administration.
Trump not only won the Electoral College majority, but he is on track to win the popular vote, unlike when he was elected in 2016. What would be his main merit for this?
I think he tries to identify with the working class, with the blue-collar workers, with the lower-income suburban white-collar workers.
The process of globalization has taken a terrible toll on the US manufacturing economy. He has interpreted it very well and that has made him more popular.
It is interesting that many Latinos voted for him in states like Pennsylvania or New Jersey, a state where he did not win but achieved a much closer vote than when Biden triumphed four years ago.
His tough speech fit well with the macho image he tries to project and a lot of people like that. The male working class without university education does not see it as something negative, but positive.
So would you say that these results demonstrate that Trump’s leadership style has become successful in US politics?
It can be if the situation is serious enough.
The despair of the working class over the loss of jobs in the industrial economy causes much anxiety, even for those who still have jobs.
Such a candidate would not do well if there was a good economy, if there were many well-paid jobs in the industrial sector, if people had confidence and security, if there was no inflation. But Trump plays on the fears, anxiety and desperation of the working class.
If those conditions are not met, a candidate like him would not be successful.
Trump was also facing different criminal cases, and this year he became the first former US president to be convicted in such a trial. It’s something that could have ruined the careers of other politicians…
Yeah.
How did Trump manage to overcome it?
He claimed there was political motivation on the part of Democrats to discredit him. He said that none of that was true, that he had not done anything wrong, nothing that others did not do, but that since he is Trump they went after him politically to accuse him. That was his message, and the people who support him believed him.
So it became somewhat inconsequential. Those who don’t like him used it as another argument against him. But those who do not dislike him, who are despairing about his marginal position in the economy, did not believe these accusations.
Would you say that Trump appears to have achieved the most resilient political leadership with the most loyal followers in recent US history?
Yes, he has made a huge and notable comeback because the issues he emphasized, like the economy and immigration, concern a lot of people.
It is not good for the nation to see immigrants entering without control. Now, Trump is very smart. Last year, Democrats and Republicans in the Senate came together and passed a bipartisan immigration bill. Trump addressed House leaders and told them: “There is no way you can do this, we won’t have an issue to hit the Democrats if they pass a bill to address immigration.” And House Republicans blocked the bill.
He is very clever. He never gives up or misses anything.
60% of the young population in the US between 18 and 25 years old does not go to university. These people are a core of their support because they feel that the possibility of making a living in an industrial economy has been taken away from them, and they resent more skilled workers. Those who work with their hands are the majority, and they despair at what would happen to them if most of the industry disappeared.
Biden’s chip law (to create jobs with semiconductor manufacturing) and others took a long time to move forward.
That’s the story.
Are these results also due to the electoral political apparatus that Trump has built within the Republican Party?
Yes, he took over the Republican Party, which was economically conservative. He is not an economic conservative. So he has captured the party and brought in a new electorate: the blue-collar working class.
He built the Republican Party around that. Also about values, culture, identity, family, faith, freedom and the flag, “America first”: these themes resonate to some extent with our population.
You’ve mentioned the issue of immigration, but how important was it to Trump’s victory?
Immigrants passing from the southern border to the country’s cities were difficult to house. The cities were not prepared for that.
Southern governors were smart to send busloads of immigrants to small middle-class towns, in Ohio, Massachusetts, Illinois… They became an economic burden on the sanctuary cities. And this caused a lot of resentment.
But I think the most important issue was the economy. Inflation went down, but prices did not go down. In a way it’s a good thing, because if they went down there would be a recession.
So Trump’s greatest success was insisting on the economy and immigration, putting “U.S. first” and that there were no wars when he was president.
And Harris’ biggest failure was to emphasize Trump’s personality and his threat to democracy, instead of trying to say: “I learned from what we did right and wrong, and what we did wrong, like not addressing immigration early enough.” or inflationary pressures will not be repeated in my government.” That’s what I should have said. But he didn’t do it. It was a mistake.
Could nominating a woman against Trump after he defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 also be considered a mistake by the Democratic Party?
I don’t think so. The American people are ready to elect a woman.
After his victory, Trump claimed a “powerful and unprecedented mandate” to govern. How much power will he really have, considering that checks and balances remain a principle of American democracy?
Well, if the Democrats lose their majority in the House of Representatives it would be very difficult for them to do anything to block Trump or the Republicans in Congress.
Checks and balances are effective only when there is a balance of power between parties, when there are people willing to take a position regardless of which party they belong to.
If the Supreme Court is conservative, the House is conservative, the Senate is conservative, and the Executive is conservative, there are very few checks and balances.
So I don’t think there are too many checks and balances. You can only hope and pray that the people around you are better than you think they are.
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