Expectation was maximum in Latin America before the historic elections in the United States. Donald Trump returns to the White House and, with him, some ghosts of the past for Latin Americans. The main one, migration, has been a fundamental issue in the electoral campaign and has brought him important political benefits.
His announced plans for “mass deportation,” as he himself said during the campaign, is an internal matter, but also an issue that defines the hemispheric relationship.
“If Mexico does not commit to being the border wall that Trump could not build in his first term, there is a clear threat of carrying out economic policies that would greatly affect it.. And this can be extended to other countries, such as Panama and Colombia, to stop the border flow through the Darién,” Carolina Jiménez, president of the Washington Office on Latin American Affairs (WOLA), tells DW. Specifically, the renegotiation of the T-MEC, in 2026, may be one of Trump’s weapons to pressure Mexico on the immigration issue.
The relationship with Venezuela, between rhetoric and practice
Trump’s first term will be remembered for the rise of Juan Guaidó with the support of the Trump administration. This time, the Republican comes with the lesson learned. “Trying to set up a counter-government has already proven to be inefficient,” Günther Maihold, a professor at the Free University of Berlin, tells DW.
“Although Trump maintains anti-socialist rhetoric, in practice, I think we are going to see more support from the Trump Government for the Maduro regime than some Venezuelans believe,” says Carolina Jiménez.
The expert recalls that Trump is characterized by “transactional leadership” and that some former advisors from the Republican’s first administration have revealed the secret admiration that Trump professes for Maduro, whom he considers a strong man for resisting international pressure.
Furthermore, Trump knows that energy issues are very important: “There is a lobby very strong oil tanker that is no stranger to Trump. These types of lobbies are interested in business profits, not in the rule of law and democracy,” Jiménez emphasizes.
Colombia: drug policy and peace processes
The fentanyl crisis affects many communities in the US, where cocaine continues to enter. It is an issue that affects your relationship with Colombia.
In recent years, the country has made an effort to promote policies focused on considering drugs as a public health problem, avoiding extreme measures to combat them, such as fumigation of the fields where the coca leaf grows, criminal punitivism against users and the militarization of the fight against cartels. These policies “are not effective, and they also have an impact on human rights. The most likely thing is that the Trump administration will reinforce all those measures that we consider failed, but that have a negative part, especially in very marginalized populations,” highlights Carolina Jiménez.
“Gustavo Petro’s policies go against US interests in terms of the fight against drugs and the pending agreements with the guerrillas in their different variants,” points out, for his part, Günther Maihold. The German expert believes that the “tenuous, almost invisible” US impulse to advance in the negotiations is going to be lost.
In any case, the crisis in Cuba, the other element in the negotiating equation, may stop the island’s role as a mediator. “The same violent actors in Colombia are going to think that there is not much room to move forward, especially when an actor like Cuba suffers from an economically difficult situation,” underlines Günther Maihold.
Brazil, China and Lula’s difficult position
“For Lula there will be a quite unpleasant situation, because many countries will expect him to maintain a position that almost brakes the US and Trump, not only in the Latin American region, but but also through the BRICS.”
Günther Maihold alludes to Trump’s possible economic retaliation against Latin American countries for their proximity to China. “Lula will have to define whether to give priority to Brazilian interests or to the expectations that other countries have in Brazil’s international role,” says Maihold.
Brazil’s own relationship with China is complicated: “Fortunately, it made the decision not to be part of the Belt and Road Initiative that the Chinese were wanting to sign with Brazil, but this is something that affects other countries. “Colombia was taking steps towards that direction,” says Maihold.
Trump’s ‘fans’ in Latin America
Trump’s second term finds great admirers in the region, such as Milei in Argentina and Bukele in El Salvador. Are they going to be empowered by the Republican’s victory? “They are leaderships that try to emulate Trump. ‘Mileism’, ‘Bukelism’, ‘Bolsonarism’ and ‘Trumpism’ are political movements that are aligned. It will be necessary to see if this is transformed into concrete political initiatives, but surely ‘Trumpism’ will not want to waste it,” warns Carolina Jiménez.
In Milei’s case, expectations multiply with Trump’s victory. “He thinks that now the doors can be opened to Argentina’s glorious past, that the markets open up, that there is practically a policy of automatic understanding with the United States, but the big surprise that may arise is that there will not be an economy open to Argentine products when Trump wants to control imports. On the other hand, their hopes that many foreign investments will come to Argentina have not had much echo so far, and it is likely that they will not, because there are other conditions that should be generated in the Argentine economy for this,” Maihold emphasizes.
However, economics is not everything. The presence of Democrats in the White House is linked to claims for violations of the rule of law, human rights violations or lack of democracy. “It was pointed out very clearly to the governments that these were important dimensions. Before the summit of democracies that Biden held at the very beginning of his mandate, there were many debates about which countries were going to be invited because they were considered democracies. In this sense, there was at least the clear vision that democracies would be more favored,” the expert points out.
“This with Trump is lost. We are faced with his transactional attitude, which will rather be oriented towards what he considers an advantage for the US. His victory is good news for the autocrats in Latin America,” he warns.
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