When Donald Trump left the White House in January 2021, many analysts thought his political career was over.
During his government, the Republican leader had an average popularity of 41%, the lowest any US president has had since the end of World War II, according to the Gallup polling company.
But upon leaving the presidency, his popularity was even worse: 34%, the lowest recorded during his entire mandate.
And Trump’s refusal to recognize his defeat in 2020 and the assault on the Capitol carried out by his followers on January 6, 2021 further reduced his support.
If we add to this the criminal trials opened against him after the end of his government, it is understandable why many were no longer betting on the political future of the real estate magnate.
Despite everything, four years after having failed in his re-election attempt, Trump has managed to turn the situation around by decisively defeating Kamala Harris to once again become the head of the US Executive.
In the legal field, this has been possible thanks to a ruling in July 2024 by the Supreme Court with a conservative majority, which granted him partial immunity for his actions in the presidency and which managed to postpone those trials – even leading to deferring the sentence for a case for which he had already been convicted – until after the presidential elections.
The former president was convicted at the end of May on 34 counts of falsifying accounting records related to payments to silence Stormy Daniels about the alleged relationship that the porn actress claims she had with him.
Additionally, he faces trial for his alleged attempts to change the 2020 election results in the state of Georgia; as well as for conspiring to annul those elections throughout the country, by different means, including the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
At the same time, there have been five factors that have helped him emerge politically and have allowed him to reach the White House again.
What has helped you?
1. The economy
Partly as a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic, inflation in the United States skyrocketed during the first half of Joe Biden’s administration, reaching 9.1% in June 2022, the highest recorded in 40 years.
In response, the Federal Reserve began an aggressive policy of increasing interest rates that helped reduce inflation, which by September 2024 had already fallen to 2.4%, very close to the official objective of 2%.
This increase in interest rates, however, translated into an increase in the cost of credit and mortgages.
These two factors –high inflation and expensive credit – put pressure on and caused discontent among American consumers who had been accustomed to living with low inflation and low interest rates for many years.
In light of these increases, the Trump administration’s pre-pandemic economy – with inflation that remained around the 2% target – has been viewed more favorably by many voters compared to what happened during the administration. of Biden.
A Gallup poll published at the beginning of October indicates that 90% of those surveyed indicated that the economy was “extremely important” or “very important” when deciding their vote. And 54% of voters believed Trump could handle it better than Kamala Harris.
The economy had not been such a weighty electoral issue since 2008.
However, it is worth clarifying that it is affected by the partisan gap because while 66% of Republican voters consider it “extremely important,” only 36% of Democratic voters share this view.
2. A loyal fan base
One of the most characteristic elements of Trump as an electoral phenomenon lies in the fact that he has a very loyal group of followers who identify with his MAGA (Make American Great Again) proposal.
But, in addition, in the elections on November 5, he managed to attract voters from other demographic groups than those voters who gave him victory in 2016.
In 2024, according to polls, Trump had managed to increase his support among young black and Latino men.
A UC Davies University study conducted in 2022 and published in January 2024 estimated that MAGAs represent around 33.6% of all Republicans and 15% of the US adult population.
According to this study, these people tend to be mostly white (81%) and without university education (77.8%). A majority of them (71.6%) believe that in the United States there is discrimination against whites that is equal to or worse than that against blacks and other minorities; and that (51%) in the US the native white population is being replaced by immigrants.
Also They think that the situation in the US is currently going in the wrong direction (98.7%) and that American democracy only favors the rich and powerful (68.6%).
Many of these come from areas of the US where the economic situation has worsened in the last four decades as a consequence of globalization and the deindustrialization process, which have reduced the chances of economic progress for people without university education by eliminating thousands of jobs in the manufacturing sector.
Since he launched his first presidential candidacy in 2015, Trump has given a voice to these voters and with his anti-establishment speech he has legitimized their discontent, which has served to consolidate the bond with his followers.
Trump has also managed to cement his support among conservative Christians, who saw how during his administration he fulfilled objectives that they had long awaited, such as the appointment of new justices to the Supreme Court who would revoke the right to abortion.
3. Migration and border
Trump’s candidacy also benefited from the issue of migration and the situation on the border with Mexico, considered “extremely important” or “very important” by 7 out of 10 voters, according to Gallup.
Contributing to this perception is the large increase in the number of attempts to enter the United States through the southern border, which in the first three years of the Biden administration reached 6.3 million, according to data from the Department of Homeland Security.
In that period, 2.4 million people were admitted to the US, most of whom are in the process of expulsion in immigration courts before which they can request asylum.
To this we must add the images of “caravans” with thousands of people walking through Mexico and Central America towards the US, as well as the visible presence of these migrants in many of the country’s main cities.
These elements fed Trump’s speech according to which the Democratic government had an open borders policy that allowed the free entry of “millions” of migrants without any type of control, including many criminals.
This situation formed an ideal scenario for a candidate like Trump who not only had an anti-immigration speech, but who had already demonstrated in his government that it was an issue that concerned him and for which he was willing to take measures such as continuing the construction of the wall on the border with Mexico or the adoption of proposals to make the processing of asylum and refuge requests more difficult.
During the campaign, Trump promised to seal the borders and carry out the “largest deportation” in US history.
She also attacked Harris for the role she played not only as vice president, but for the fact that Biden had named her responsible for finding solutions to the underlying problems that were driving migration to the US from Central American countries.
4. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza
Although it constitutes a shift in US foreign policy since the end of World War II, in reality, Trump’s “America First” proposal is not new, but rather feeds on a long-standing isolationist current. in that country that was already palpable since the time of the country’s first president, George Washington, who in his farewell speech advised that the US avoid “tangled alliances” with other countries.
When he was elected president in 2016, much of the American public was exhausted after the eight years of the war in Iraq (which later gave way to the fight against the self-proclaimed Islamic State) and the seemingly endless war in Afghanistan that had lasted longer. 15 years old. Both conflicts started, by the way, by Republican George W. Bush.
Trump arrived at the White House with a promise not to start new wars, something he formally fulfilled, although some critics accuse him of having had a warlike and confrontational foreign policy.
This allowed him during the campaign present himself again as the “anti-war” candidate and take advantage of the growing discontent – especially among Republican voters – who believe that the US is investing a lot of money and effort in supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.
Trump promised that if he returns to the White House he will end this war within 24 hours, which has generated concern in Ukraine and its allies, as they fear that the Republican will try to force Kyiv to make concessions to appease Russia.
Also during the campaign, Trump assured that he would end the war in Gaza, although he has not said how.
And voters seem to have believed him.
5. The changing Democratic candidacy
Trump’s electoral campaign was also helped by the ups and downs of the Democratic Party during this campaign.
President Joe Biden attempted to seek re-election and initially led the polls. However, starting in March 2024, his popularity fell as doubts grew within and outside his party about the suitability of his candidacy, especially due to concerns about his advanced age and doubts about his supposed cognitive decline. .
The situation came to a head during the debate that both candidates held at the end of June, during which Biden struggled to present his arguments and at times seemed to lose his train of thought..
A few days later, Biden announced his withdrawal from the race and his support for the candidacy of his Vice President Kamala Harris.
In a few weeks, Harris assumed the Democratic leadership and managed to recover the ground lost by Biden in the polls, but only until settling into a situation of technical tie with Trump that remained until the elections.
Less known to voters than Trump, Harris had difficulty in the campaign disassociating herself from Biden’s policies and their apparent consequences in terms of inflation and the crisis at the border.
Harris tried to present her candidacy as the option of generational “change” and joy, but her candidacy did not seem to convince voters dissatisfied with the American political system.
The Democratic candidate was also harmed by her refusal to grant interviews to the press during her first weeks of the campaign, which fueled the idea that she did not have a clear government plan.
Furthermore, throughout the campaign, Harris looked like a clear favorite to win the female vote, but she lost a lot of ground in the male vote, especially among young black and Hispanic people who turned notably towards Trump, thus contributing to her Return to the White House.
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