Strategists for the campaigns of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have a dot marked in red on their maps of the United States.
This is Erie, a county in the state of Pennsylvania considered the most reliable thermometer for measuring the country’s political temperature.
Pennsylvania is one of the swing states in which neither Democrats nor Republicans can take victory for granted and within it, Erie County has become a key district.
According to estimates by FiveThirtyEight, a portal that analyzes and averages published polls, both candidates have more than a 90% chance of being the next president if they win in Pennsylvania.
And as Joe Morris, of the Department of Political Science at Mercyhurst University, told the BBC, “Pennsylvania is always going in the direction that Erie is going.”
In an election that appears as tight as that of 2024, with polls showing a virtual tie between both candidates With just over two weeks left before the vote, Erie and Pennsylvania emerge as even more crucial places.
According to Morris, “in Erie we haven’t forgotten that Hillary Clinton didn’t stop by in 2016.”
Then, the Democratic candidate was surprisingly defeated by Trump after leaving Erie County off her campaign route.
Kamala Harris and Trump himself learned their lesson and have both held rallies in Erie and several stops in Pennsylvania in recent weeks.
Why Erie (and Pennsylvania) matter in the race to the White House
With its 19 votes, Pennsylvania is one of the swing states with the greatest weight in the Electoral College, the body that elects presidents by delegation in the American system.
History shows that in 8 of the last 10 presidential elections, the winner of Pennsylvania ended up being the president.
And within Pennsylvania, Erie County has voted for the winner in every election since 2008.
The county is considered a faithful sample of the social reality of Pennsylvania and that is why analysts and advisors to the candidates believe that its results can be extrapolated to those of the rest of the state, and even the United States in general.
The antecedents seem to prove them right. According to a US News tally, of the 25 elections for office held in Pennsylvania since 2008, Erie voters chose the winner in 23 of them.
But the most relevant thing in a scenario as equal as the current one is that The preferences of Erie citizens often fluctuate from one election to another and indicate the general trend in the country.
In 2020, for example, Joe Biden won Erie and Pennsylvania, confirming his victory over Donald Trump in the presidential election.
Four years earlier, Trump was the winner in Erie and finally won the presidency against most odds.
The slim advantage obtained by the last two winners in Erie (1% in the case of Biden and 1.5% in that of Trump) reflects the polarization that has been installed in American politics and how decisive a few thousand votes can be.
As Thomas Gift, director of the Center for American Politics at University College London, told BBC Mundo, “the demographic reality is a mirror of the reality of the country, which together with the many votes that (Pennsylvania) has in the Electoral College explains why its results usually anticipate those of the presidential election.”
What Erie County is like
With its 270,000 inhabitants, Erie displays the typical social and demographic makeup of Pennsylvania.
“We have an urban core and suburban areas, and south of I-90 is a rural area,” says Sam Talarico, president of the Erie Democratic Party, who these days is engaged in a frenetic campaign for every vote of his members. neighbors.
With nearly 83% of its population white, 8% African-American and 5% Latino, Erie has experienced a difficult transformation in recent years in which industry has given way to services as the main local economic activity. .
Where there used to be factories, there are now more and more educational and medical centers. As in the rest of Pennsylvania, the energy sector is also one of the main drivers.
The unemployment data also places Erie as a mirror of the reality of the state and the country. Its 4.3% unemployment rate is only two tenths above the national rate.
But although there are few people out of work, things have not been easy in recent years for many county residents.
Kevin Nelson, director of Home House, a food bank that provides free food to a thousand Erie families, told the BBC that “supermarket prices, rents, gasoline, electricity, everything has gone up, and that hits the pocketbook.”
Although inflation has moderated in recent months, increasing the cost of living will be one of the priorities of Erie voters on November 5.
According to Gift, “Prices, crime and illegal immigration are major concerns that Erie residents share with the rest of the United States, but there are others that are specific to Erie and Pennsylvania, such as ‘fracking.’”
Fracking, or hydraulic fracturing, is a technique used to extract oil and natural gas from underground. Those who oppose it highlight that it presents serious environmental risks, such as contamination of groundwater.
In Erie alone there are 11 companies dedicated to energy, a sector that employs more than 270,000 Pennsylvanians.
Gift, who is from Pennsylvania, points out that “Harris could come out badly on this issue, because, although she has now changed her mind, in the past she advocated for a veto” of this oil and gas extraction technique.
Although the Democratic candidate now says she is against the veto, Trump repeats during the campaign that Harris wants to ban “fracking,” knowing how sensitive the issue is for Pennsylvania voters.
But there are other issues in which it is the Republican who seems in an uncomfortable position.
For example, Pennsylvania is home to a large community of Polish origin that today they are Americans and will vote in the elections.
According to Gift, “Trump might have a problem because these voters don’t like Putin or what he’s doing in Ukraine”.
Be that as it may, equality seems maximum just days before the vote.
Fivethirtyeight’s latest report gives Trump a tiny 0.2% lead in voting intentions in Pennsylvania.
Gift doesn’t dare bet on who will win Erie and Pennsylvania, but, like many others, he does dare to bet on whoever does will be the next president of the United States.
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