The United States is made up of 50 states. But when it comes to presidential elections, some states matter more than others.
While many “safe states” tend to reliably vote one way or the other, “swing states” can be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate. This “heads or tails” potential makes them attractive to candidates, since these votes could swing the election one way or the other.
The importance of swing states is due to the Electoral College. Unlike most American elections, the president and vice president are not elected directly by voters through the popular vote.
This complex and controversial process has recently meant that the winner of the popular vote may not win the Electoral College and, therefore, the presidency. This occurred in 2000, when George W. Bush defeated Al Gore, and in 2016, when Donald Trump was elected against Hillary Clinton.
Over the years, the list of swing states has changed due to factors such as population, demographics, or movements on broader cultural issues. Still, for American voters the economy tops the list of important issues.
Positions on abortion rights will play an important role in voter turnout across the country. In addition to these issues, each swing state has its own set of key issues.
Arizona
For Arizona voters, the most pressing issue is likely tied to geography. The state shares a long border with Mexico and has become a hotspot for illegal immigration.
As vice president, Kamala Harris was tasked with easing the border crisis by addressing “root causes” with America’s neighbors. Many believe he failed in this task, and Trump takes every opportunity to point this out.
At the same time, this influx of people is making Arizona one of the fastest-growing states in the country. The population is now almost a third Hispanic, and outreach to Latino voters will be key.
The current president, Joe Biden, won the state in 2020.
Electoral votes: 11
Georgia
When Biden won the 2020 election in Georgia, it was the first time a Democrat had won the state since 1992. But, with a margin of 0.2 percentage points, it was an incredibly close race.
About 33 percent of the state’s voters are black, one of the highest proportions in the country, a fact that may be useful for Harris.
It is also the state where a grand jury indicted Trump and others for illegally trying to overturn the last presidential election. That case has stalled and will not go to trial before the current election.
Biden won the state in 2020.
Electoral votes: 16
Michigan
It’s almost impossible to think of Michigan without the automobile industry.. The state is home to Ford, General Motors and Chrysler, now part of Stellantis. These manufacturing jobs are important for the region. Recently, an invasion of competitive Chinese electric vehicles was stopped dead by the massive tariffs introduced by Biden.
Harris will have to convince the state’s large number of Arab voters. His support for Democrats has been in jeopardy because of the party’s support for Israel in its war against Hamas in Gaza.
Biden won the state in 2020.
Electoral votes: 15
Snowfall
Immigration is a key issue for Nevada, due to its location near the southern border. The population is now almost one-third Hispanic and one of the most urban in the country.
The state relies heavily on tourism, and its economy has grown more than any other swing state since Biden took office. At the same time, it has the highest unemployment rate of any state in the country.
Biden won the state in 2020.
Electoral votes: 6
North Carolina
North Carolina is the latest to join the list of swing states. Before Biden dropped out of the race in July, Trump had a big lead here. Harris has been able to reduce it to almost a tie. However, Democratic presidential candidates have only won the state once in the last 11 elections.
The state has undergone major demographic changes, going from 75 percent white in 1990 to about 60 percent white today. In the last 30 years, the total population has increased significantly.
Trump won the state in 2020.
Electoral votes: 16
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is suffering more from the rising cost of living than most other states.
At the same time, the fracking has made it the second largest producer of natural gas in the country, after Texas. Trump has long promoted this controversial energy exploitation procedure. Harris previously called for a ban but is now keeping options open, albeit with stricter regulations.
Biden won the state in 2020.
Electoral votes: 19
Wisconsin
In Wisconsin, white people make up a larger percentage of the electorate than in any other swing state.
In the last two presidential elections, the state had one of the highest voter turnout rates in the country. They were able to elect the winning presidential candidate in both 2016 and 2020, by a margin of less than 25,000 votes each time, showing how important each vote can be in a swing state.
Biden won the state in 2020.
Electoral votes: 10
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