If the presidential elections in the United States were held this Friday, according to the polls, the victory would correspond to…it is not known.
And, according to the most recent opinion studies, the Republican candidate, donald trumpand the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harrisare in a technical tie.
Only exactly one month before the elections, according to the average of national polls prepared by ABC News/538, support for Harris is around 49%, while Trump obtains 46%. However, This difference of just 3 percentage points is within the margin of error of the surveysso it is not possible to draw conclusions from these data.
“The campaign for the presidential election is tied at the national level. Surveys are very good at giving us an idea of the general picture, but they are not precise enough to distinguish one or two points in an entire country,” he explains to BBC Mundo. Whit AyresRepublican pollster and president of the North Star polling company.
It should be noted that these surveys refer to the voting intention of citizens, but in the United States the president is not chosen through direct voting, so the so-called popular vote does not always serve to anticipate the result that will be obtained. the elections.
In fact, in 2016 the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton obtained almost three million more votes than Donald Trump, but lost the elections.
This is explained because in the United States the president is chosen through a second-degree election mechanism, thanks to which more important than winning in the total vote count is to win in a sufficient number of states to allow obtaining the majority of votes in the call electoral college.
Adding states and votes
What does this consist of?
Basically, each US state is assigned a certain number of votes, which are calculated according to the size of its population. Thus, for example, California – the most populated state – has 54 votes, while states like North Dakota or Vermont – which are among the least populated – only have 3 votes each.
The overwhelming majority of states and the District of Columbia give all their votes to the candidate who receives the most votes there. The only exceptions are Maine and Nebraska, where votes are distributed proportionally.
In total, There are 538 votes to be distributed, so for a candidate to be elected president he or she must obtain 270 votes..
“In 43 of the states we know well in advance how they are going to vote because they are consistently Republican or Democratic states,” says Ayres.
This voting pattern, which according to surveys is expected to be maintained for these 2024 elections, indicates that the Democrats have 21 states that add up to about 230 electoral college votes, while the Republicans have 23 states that add up to 215 votes.
Thus, the race for the White House would end up being decided in seven states, known as pendulums because they tend to change their support from one party to the other. In 2024 there are seven swing states that together represent 93 electoral college votes: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
“The election will be decided by who wins the majority of the 93 electoral votes in those seven key states”says Ayres.
And how is the presidential race going in those states a month before the vote? Let’s see.
A very close race
According to the average of state polls prepared by the poll analysis website 538, which is part of the American news network ABC News, the competition between the former Republican president and the Democratic vice president is also very close in these seven states, with differences that range between 1 and 2 percentage points.
Trump appears ahead in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, while Harris leads in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan.
But those differences are too small to be significant.
“The race between Trump and Harris is essentially tied in those seven battleground states and it is very difficult to say at this point which candidate will win the majority of those 93 electoral votes,” Ayres notes.
Between the “sun belt” and the “rust belt”
Four of the states in dispute are located in the so-called sun belt: Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia. The other three are part of the so-called “rust belt”: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Arizona
This southwestern state represents 11 electoral college votes. Here Trump leads Harris by two percentage points.
In 2020, Biden won Arizona by about 10,000 votes, but it has been a red state for the past few decades. In fact, since 1912, never has a Republican candidate reached the White House without winning this state.
Arizona is home to a significant percentage of Hispanic voters and shares a border of hundreds of kilometers with Mexico, making it one of the places where the immigration issue has been predominant and has generated unrest among citizens, although the numbers of migrant crossings have fallen in recent months.
The immigration issue is one of Trump’s great weapons against Harris given that during the government of Joe Biden and Harris the number of people arriving at the border has grown.
There has also been strong controversy over the issue of abortion, due to the failed attempt by the Republican-controlled state legislature to establish an almost total abortion ban.
The defense of abortion rights is an issue that motivates Democratic voters to go to the polls, which is why it favors Harris.
Snowfall
An advantage of 34,000 votes allowed Joe Biden to take Nevada’s 6 electoral college votes in 2020.
Before Biden’s withdrawal from re-election, Trump had a wide lead in the polls, but things have changed with Harris, who now has a lead of one percentage point.
With a significant portion of Hispanic voters, the recovery of the post-covid economy has been slower in this state that currently has the highest unemployment rate in the US: 5.1%.
North Carolina
Donald Trump won this state by 74,000 votes in 2020 and currently leads Harris in the polls by one percentage point.
Liz Mair, Republican political advisor and president of the consulting company Mair Strategies, points out that one element that could affect the vote in this state is the response offered to the destructive impact that Hurricane Helene recently had there.
“We don’t know how many lives we have lost. Depending on how close the electoral competition is in that state, that could matter,” the expert tells BBC Mundo.
Georgia
In 2020, Joe Biden won Georgia’s 16 electoral college votes by a lead of 13,000 votes. Trump’s alleged attempts to try to reverse that result – something he rejects – led to a criminal trial against him that is still underway.
Biden’s victory was possible thanks to the support he obtained from African-American voters, who represent a third of Georgia’s population.
However, the disenchantment of these voters – and of Hispanics – led to a drop in support for Democrats in Georgia, something that Harris is trying to change. For now, however, he is one percentage point behind Trump.
Michigan
The state known as the Great Lakes represents 15 electoral college votes and during the last two presidential elections it was key to both Trump’s victory in 2016 and Biden’s in 2020.
Over the past 11 months, however, Democrats have faced pushback in that state because of the Biden administration’s support for Israel during the war in Gaza. This negative reaction is explained by the fact that Michigan is the state with the highest proportion of Arab population in the US.
Despite this, Harris leads Trump in the polls there by two percentage points. The state’s top three elected offices are held by Democratic women, perhaps a good omen for Harris.
Wisconsin
This state represents 10 electoral college votes and, like Michigan, gave majority support to both Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. In both cases by a narrow margin of about 20,000 votes.
Historical ties to unions and the fact that the population is less religious means that Democrats in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania enjoy greater support among white voters without college education, a group of voters who tend to vote clearly in favor of Trump.
According to polls, Harris has a two percentage point lead over Trump in Wisconsin.
Pennsylvania
With 19 votes in the electoral college, experts consider Pennsylvania the most important swing state for both candidates. Here Harris leads Trump by one point.
Whit Ayres highlights that Harris did not take advantage of the opportunity to nominate the popular Democratic governor of this state as her vice presidential candidate, Josh Shapiro.
“That would have given her campaign an advantage in Pennsylvania, but for some reason she chose a candidate who does not belong to any of the swing states,” the expert told BBC Mundo.
The economy – and, especially, inflation – is considered one of the key issues in Pennsylvania, which is the US state where grocery prices have increased the most in the US, according to the Datasembly consulting firm.
How to achieve the decisive advantage
But in such a close election, what can candidates and their campaigns do to gain a decisive advantage that takes them to the White House?
Liz Mair assures that with one month left until election day, the persuasion period has already ended, so the candidates should focus their efforts on mobilizing the voters who support them.
“At this point, when we already have people voting [por correo o con voto anticipado]I think there is really very little that candidates can do. The most obvious thing that can impact the outcome is operations to increase voter turnout,” says Mair.
The expert recommends that they try to replicate and modernize what the campaign did Barack Obama in 2012.
“It’s one of the smartest things I’ve seen done in a campaign. Have lists of your potential voters so you can approach them on voting day and make sure they participate. That’s one of the few things candidates can control to some extent. Basically, it is a participation operation,” says Mair.
For his part, Ayres points out that at this point the vast majority of voters have made a decision and that, since the elections are so close in swing states, it is likely that the final result will be determined by a small group of voters there who have not yet decided if they will vote or for whom.
The expert points out that there are four major campaign themes that have weight in the seven pendulum states.
“Abortion, democracy, economy and migration are critical issues, although they have greater weight in one place than another. In Arizona, for example, immigration is very relevant, but all of these issues are important in all swing states,” Ayres points out.
He explains that at this point in the presidential race, it is usual for campaign teams to stick to the script they have drawn up around the issues they have on their agenda.
While the Republican agenda focuses on the economy and migration, Democrats focus on abortion rights and the defense of democracy. Of course, in the end, everyone must address all issues.
In the case of Harris, for example, Ayres points out that she is trying to change the perception that voters have that Republicans know how to manage the country’s economy better than Democrats.
“Harris is emphasizing the economy and his proposal to help the middle class, to try to close the gap of confidence in the management of the economy that now favors Trump. That’s just what she should do,” Ayres says.
Liza Mair points out that since Harris entered the presidential race, she has had to close that and other gaps that existed because Biden had lost support among different groups of voters, including Hispanics.
The expert believes that Harris could try to mobilize the Latino vote more through her proposal to boost the home construction sector.
“If she wanted to try to get an additional 2% or 3% among the Hispanic vote, it would be smart for her to come out and talk about those policies, since many Latinos work in that sector or in related industries. And if many new homes are built, the opportunities they will have to improve their socioeconomic situation will be greater,” he indicates.
In the case of Trump, Mair points out that one of the weak points he has is the support of women who, paradoxically, would be losing both among those who support abortion and among those who oppose it.
“I don’t think he will be able to attract many women apart from those who already support him,” she says.
The expert warns that beyond the rejection by women who support abortion rights, Trump is also losing support among conservative women who do not like his attempt to present himself as a “protector.”
“Women who are looking for someone to protect them and who think about those types of gender roles are already voting for him. But I think women who aren’t voting for him are more likely to find that incredibly condescending and stupid, and that’s a sizable chunk of more conservative women who probably would have voted Republican under any other candidate,” she says.
“In general, Trump has a problem with female voters. “I think that’s why he’s trying to put pressure on younger male voters, who are less likely to participate, but when they do, they tend to favor him,” he adds.
The expert considers that it is to be expected that Trump will redouble his commitment to these male voters, as well as his anti-immigrant speech.
“He has to focus on getting people out to vote who are incredibly hostile to everything they perceive as foreign, primarily immigrants, and any type of foreign trade. If he can do it, he could win and with greater support than people expect,” he says.
“Right now, this is a game of engagement, not persuasion. And, for Trump, it has probably always been a participation game,” he points out.
Thus, in this final stretch of a seemingly close presidential race, the outcome appears to depend on the candidates’ ability to ensure that those who already support them vote and, at the same time, to persuade the last handful of undecided people.
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