Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, the Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, and Iran.
The list of fronts on which Israel is fighting is long.
In the last week alone, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) They launched a ground invasion in Lebanon, while bombing various positions in Yemen and continuing their offensive in Gaza.
In response, Iran – an ally and main sponsor of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and other Shiite militias – attacked the cities of Jerusalem and Tel Aviv with missiles, to which the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu He promised revenge.
“Iran will pay a high price,” he warned.
Since October 7, 2023 – when Hamas launched an unprecedented attack on Israeli territory that left 1,200 dead – Netanyahu has insisted on his goal of create a “new order” in the Middle East and has promoted an offensive with devastating consequences: more than 41,000 people have died in Gaza, while in Lebanon the figure already exceeds 2,000, according to the authorities of that country.
All of the above has led to the fact that today we are faced with one of the “most dangerous moments” of recent history in the Middle East, according to BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner.
But one of the unknowns posed by this conflict is how feasible it is for Israel to maintain so many war fronts at the same time. Do you really have the military capacity to do it?
“The latest attacks have shown that the Israeli intelligence services and military forces are capable. But there are limitations and the more fronts you have open, the more difficult each operation will be,” he tells BBC Mundo Shaan Shaikh, missile defense expert and member of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The Israeli military force is known around the world for its high technology and sophistication. However, there are data that are important to take into account to analyze its true capacity.
According to information from the World Bank -based on the balance sheets of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)-, since 2019 Israel has allocated more than $20 billion a year in military spending.
This represents more than double the almost $7 billion dollars allocated to Iran in 2022 (according to the latest World Bank record) for the same purpose, which provides it with significant strength in any potential conflict (and allows it to opt for state-of-the-art war material).
Israel’s defense spending compared to its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a measure of its economic output, it is also twice that of Iran.
According to the most recent information from the World Bank, Israel allocates 4.5% of its GDP to Defensewhile Iran allocates 2.6%. Other countries, such as Lebanon or Syria, allocate 3.4% and 4.1%, respectively.
IISS figures also show that Israel has 340 combat-ready military aircraft, which, according to Eitan Shamirdirector of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies -attached to Bar Ilan University in Israel-, gives it a very important advantage in precision air strikes within the region.
“Israel can bomb almost any point in the Middle East thanks to its Air Force,” he tells BBC Mundo.
Among the aircraft that Israel has are the F-15 with long-distance attack range, the F-35 (high-tech “stealth” aircraft that can evade radars) and fast attack helicopters.
Additionally, the IDF has a wide range of armored vehicles, tanks, artillery, warships and drones.
“I believe that the IDF is one of the most modern and equipped military forces that existand has vast battle experience, especially after his fight against Hamas in Gaza,” says Eitan Shamir.
Their intelligence services are also relevant in this, the Mossadwho was responsible for the explosions of beepers and walkie-talkies in Lebanon in mid-September.
On the other hand, in the Israeli military system the keys are Iron Dome and David’s Sling, sophisticated air defense mechanisms with which it has been able to repel various missile attacks, such as the last one launched by Iran on October 1.
These systems are capable of intercepting and destroying rockets destined for an urban or strategic area.
ground force
According to experts consulted by BBC Mundo, all this positions Israel as a more powerful force when compared to militias such as Hamas, Hezbollah or the Houthis in Yemen.
“The Israelis are more capable than any of those forces individually.”says Shaan Shaikh of CSIS.
However, the expert adds that the problem “is when Israel has to fight Iran while also fighting its other enemies in the region.”
“That is very difficult. And one of the things that can fail them is precisely their famous Iron Dome because “It will be impossible for them to defend themselves against many missiles launched together at the same time.”
“This is because some sensors can only look in certain directions, so if you have a sensor that is looking north toward Lebanon, it may not be able to be used to look east toward Iran or south toward Yemen.” , he indicates.
Another difficulty that Israel could face by maintaining conflicts in different areas of the Middle East has to do with its ground force, explains Eitan Shamir.
According to the IISS, Israel has around 178,000 soldiers in servicein addition to some 460,000 reserve military (let’s not forget that in this country it is mandatory to do military service for those over 18 years of age, with some exceptions).
However, Iran has more than 600,000 troops in service and more than 300,000 in reserve. If we add to that the fighters of some militias (it is believed, for example, that Hezbollah has between 50,000 and 100,000 men, and Hamas between 20,000 and 30,000), Israel’s disadvantage becomes evident.
The large proportion of reservists in the Israeli army is also a problem, says Shamir.
“Almost 70% of its military personnel are reservists and not professional soldiers. So after a while you have to send them home because they are needed in their jobs to run the economy. This makes completing certain missions longer and more complex.he assures.
The support of the United States
Another key point when analyzing Israeli military capacity It is the support it receives from the United States.
He 69% of Israeli arms imports They come from the North American country, according to the latest report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri, for its acronym in English).
According to this organization, at the end of 2023, Washington delivered thousands of bombs to Israel.
Before the war, the United States supplied $3.3 billion dollars annually in military financing, in addition to additional $500 million in missile defense funding, according to the State Department.
In 2022, the US added another $1 billion in additional funds to replenish the stock of interceptor missiles for its Iron Dome.
“Israelis rely heavily on US support; planes, ammunition and different technological components come from there,” explains Eitan Shamir.
In this way, experts assure that their support is crucial to continue with their offensive on different fronts.
“In addition, there is the diplomatic umbrella: without the US veto there could be a problematic scenario in which the United Nations Security Council would say that Israel has to stop its offensive and, otherwise, impose international sanctions”adds Eitan Shamir.
For Shaan Shaikh, the country led by Joe Biden has given signs that it will continue to support them in their offensive in the Middle East.
“The Biden administration has repeatedly said it wants a ceasefire in Gaza, but what it has actually done to achieve that goal is quite minimal,” he notes.
“He has been unwilling to stop sending weapons and financial resources to the Israelis. So if this continues to escalate, “I think the United States will continue to support Israel to a large extent,” concludes.
There are other countries that are also important to Israel.
Germany, for example, is the second country that sells the most weapons to Israel, with 30%, according to Sipri data. Until November of last year, German arms exports to Israel totaled $326 million dollarsequivalent to 10 times the figures recorded in 2022.
While Italy occupies third place among nations supplying weapons to Israel, with 0.9% of the total, according to Sipri.
Other weapons suppliers are France, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Canada and Australia.
Beyond weapons…
But beyond the number of weapons, planes, tanks and soldiers that Israel has, experts say that other factors must also be taken into account to analyze whether this country will be able to maintain its offensive on different fronts.
“Israel is stronger than its enemies, we know it can hold its own for a long time. But there are aspects that not only have to do with the amount of firepower you can provide, but also how long you can endure a war. And that is much more complicated.”says Shamir.
“It depends on the costs you want to assume because the price that Israel has to pay is very high in economic, social and international reputation terms,” he adds.
For the director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, despite Israel’s “military superiority”, this country is at a disadvantage in the Middle East due to its size.
“It is a small country in a very large region, where there are many people,” he says.
“So, it doesn’t matter if you defeat your enemies in one, two or 10 battles because in the end you won’t be able to defeat them completely due to the size differences,” he adds.
Let us remember that Iran, for example, is a much larger country than Israel and its population (about 89 million) is almost ten times larger than that of Israel (almost 10 million).
Missile defense expert Shaan Shaikh says it is worrying that Israel is acting on multiple fronts and “pursuing maximalist objectives throughout its foreign policy.”
“It seems like this is unnecessary bloodshed.” “That could be avoided through diplomacy, through a ceasefire in Gaza, which would at least allow Hezbollah and Iran to back down and claim some kind of diplomatic victory,” he says.
In any case, looking to the future, both experts agree that none of the protagonists of this conflict want a “total war” in the region because “everyone knows that the destruction could be enormous.”
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