The Middle East region is once again on the brink of an open and devastating war between two protagonists who have been at odds for most of the last 45 years. We are in one of the most dangerous moments for the entire region.
Iran, which became an Islamic Republic after the fall of the Shah in 1979, long ago vowed to destroy the State of Israel, which it calls the “Zionist regime.”
Israel accuses the Iranian Revolutionary Guard of spreading violence throughout the region through its allies, a view shared by the governments of several Arab countries.
And Israel is preparing to retaliate against Iran for Tuesday’s missile attack.
Iran said the action was taken in response to two assassinations by Israel, that of the leader of the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, in Beirut last Friday, and that of the Palestinian Hamas, Ismail Haniya, in Tehran in the month of July.
What will happen now?
Both Israel and its close ally the United States have promised to punish Iran for launching 180 missiles into Israeli territory.
According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, “Iran will pay a high price.”
The requests for containment to Israel that its allies launched the last time tension between both powers escalated, last April, have not occurred this time.
And, given Israel’s determination to confront all its enemies at once, in Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen and Syria, Netanyahu’s government does not seem up to the task.
Israeli military strategists are likely already debating whether and how to hit back at Iran.
Where Israel could hit
With the help of American satellites and the Israeli foreign intelligence service, the Mossad, Israeli agents on the ground in Iran have a wide range of potential targets to choose from. They can be divided into three categories:
- Military – An obvious first target would be the bases from which Iran launched its ballistic missiles against Israel, its launch platforms, command and control centers, fuel depots and storage silos. The Israelis could go further and attack Revolutionary Guard bases as well as air defenses and other missile batteries. They could even try to kill people directly involved in Tuesday’s attack.
- Economical – This would include the most vulnerable assets of the Iranian state, such as its petrochemical plants, its generators and perhaps also its maritime transport infrastructure. This option would be extraordinarily unpopular in Iran, as it would end up harming ordinary people much more than an attack aimed at military targets.
- Nuclear – This would be the great bet for Israel. It is a known fact, confirmed by the International Atomic Energy Agency, that Iran is enriching uranium far beyond the 20% required for civilian use of nuclear energy. The Israeli, like other governments, suspect that Tehran is trying to reach the “critical point” from which it would be very close to being able to manufacture a nuclear bomb. Possible targets for such an attack would be Parchin, the center of Iran’s military nuclear program, the experimental reactors in Tehran, Bonab and Ramsar, and large facilities such as Bushehr, Natanz, Isfahan and Ferdows.
How Iran could counterattack
Much of the Israeli calculations will revolve around guess what the Iranian response could be and try to mitigate it.
Iran’s position is that with the missiles launched on Tuesday, scores have been settled with Israel, but it has warned that if it retaliates, Iran will also do so in turn.
Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said after Tuesday’s bombing: “This is just a glimpse of our capabilities.”
The Revolutionary Guard underscored the message: “If the Zionist regime responds to Iran’s operations, it will face devastating attacks.”
Iran cannot defeat Israel militarily. Its air force is obsolete and decrepit, and its air defenses are cracked and hampered by years of Western sanctions.
But still It has a huge number of ballistic missiles and drones loaded with explosivesas well as many allied militias throughout the Middle East.
Its next barrage of missiles could well target residential areas of Israel rather than military bases.
The attack by an Iranian-backed armed group on Saudi Arabian oil facilities in 2019 showed how vulnerable its neighbors are to Iranian attacks.
The naval forces of the Revolutionary Guard, operating in the Persian Gulf, have small attack flotillas that could overcome the defenses of a ship of the United States Fifth Fleet if they were launched as a swarm.
If given the orders, they could mine the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting the flow of up to 20% of the world’s oil exports, which would have a major impact on the global economy.
And then there are all the bases that the United States has spread throughout the Arab side of the Gulf, from Kuwait to Oman.
Iran has warned that if attacked it will not only turn against Israel, but will target any country it considers to have supported that attack.
These are just some of the scenarios that defense officials in Tel Aviv and Washington must now be contemplating.
click here to read more stories from BBC News World.
You can also follow us on YouTube, instagram, TikTok, x, Facebook and on our new channel WhatsAppwhere you will find breaking news and our best content.
And remember that you can receive notifications in our app. Download the latest version and activate them.
- What is known about Iran’s recent missile attack against Israel
- Where is Lebanon’s army as Israel and Hezbollah clash?
- How the military capabilities of Iran and Israel compare