“To preserve life and avoid encirclement, I have withdrawn our units from Avdíivka.”
When he was appointed this month, the new head of Ukraine’s armed forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, said he would “rather withdraw than sacrifice lives,” and that is what he ultimately did with this city in the country’s east.
Even though the Russians suffered huge losses, four months of relentless attacks have left the Ukrainian troops deployed there outnumbered, outgunned and running out of ammunition.
It is Moscow’s biggest victory since Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive last year.
Avdiivka was briefly occupied by Russia in 2014 before being retaken by Ukraine.
What does the fall of Avdíivka mean for the conflict in general?
A war that transforms
Now that this war has become one of attrition, the difference between the size of Ukraine and Russia is becoming more evident.
Russia’s population of 144 million is more than four times larger than that of Ukraine.
Despite losing thousands of soldiers in the process, Moscow has made its size count by replenishing them almost immediately.
Ukrainian forces have also suffered losses, although not to the same extent.
As with other Ukrainian settlements on the front line, Russia has taken over an almost completely destroyed city.
The 3rd Ukrainian Assault Brigade, deployed there, said it was being attacked by infantry from all directions.
Russia has concentrated its best-trained fighters in the area and is believed to launch up to 60 bombs per day on Ukrainian positions.
The last time the Russians took a Ukrainian city, Bakhmut, General Syrskyi was criticized for holding on to it for too long. He was accused of seeking a symbolic victory at the cost of unnecessary casualties.
That experience seems to have generated a change.
The medium term
This Russian advance has not occurred overnight. Since last October, Moscow has launched wave after wave of attacks on Avdiivka.
From their high positions and reinforced defenses in the industrial city, the Ukrainians were able to hold them off with targeted attacks, leaving the landscape of Donbas scarred and littered with Russian bodies and destroyed armored vehicles.
It now appears that Russian troops have penetrated defenses that had been reinforced over the 10 years since Moscow’s campaign of aggression began.
To Kyiv’s frustration, Ukraine has been unable to breach Russian fortifications elsewhere, which were built in a matter of months.
“Russia cannot achieve strategic objectives, only tactical objectives,” says Major Rodion Kudryashov, Ukrainian deputy commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade.
He claims that his troops are outnumbered by up to seven to one. On the phone he told me: “It’s like fighting two armies“.
He is confident that the Russians will not push further toward cities like Pokrovsk and Kostantinovka, but that is far from guaranteed.
What it will do for them is relieve pressure on the city of Donetsk, which is 15 kilometers further east and which Russia has occupied since 2014.
Long-term
Ukraine has already been forced to retreat in this way on other occasions, especially in the summer of 2022.
Large, well-equipped Russian units surrounded cities such as Lisichansk and Severodonetsk. The Ukrainians could do little to stop them.
However, a subsequent influx of Western weapons and militarily inspired thinking brought about a change of course later that year, when Ukrainian troops liberated areas in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions.
But now, this is a different war.
Global politics is having a more significant impact on the battlefield.
Intermittent Western aid has directly contributed to this probable Ukrainian retreat at Avdiivka.
The United States is in the lead in supplying weapons to Ukraine, due to the scale and speed with which it can provide them. With a $95 billion package, including aid for Ukraine, yet to be approved in Washington, other allies are scrambling to fill the void.
It means that Ukrainians have to ration ammunition and manage low morale. And Avdiivka may not be the only withdrawal kyiv is considering.
Russian President Vladimir Putin still wants all of Ukraine, and it’s still possible he could take it.
That prospect could restore Western unity to try to prevent it or fuel skepticism that Ukraine was never able to win this war, despite the extraordinary defense it has deployed in Avdiivka and elsewhere.
click here to read more stories from BBC News World.
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