An NIH-funded study warns that deaths related to cardiovascular diseases due to extreme heat will increase in the United States between 2036 and 2065, with a disparate impact that will especially affect older adults and African Americans.
According to this study, supported by the National Institutes of Health and published in Circulationextreme temperatures are expected to be responsible for a significant increase in deaths from cardiovascular diseases in the future.
Although extreme heat currently accounts for less than 1% of cardiovascular disease-related deaths, a drastic change is projected due to the expected increase in summer days with temperatures of at least 90 degrees Fahrenheit.
The heat index, which considers thermal sensation with humidity, measures extreme temperature and will be a crucial factor in this increase in deaths related to cardiovascular diseases.
Older adults, ages 65 and older, and the African American population will be especially affected due to factors such as underlying medical conditions and socioeconomic barriers, such as lack of access to air conditioning or living in areas prone to retaining heat, known as “heat islands.”
Dr. Sameed A. Khatana, study author and cardiologist at the University of Pennsylvania, warns that “the health burdens from extreme heat will continue to increase in the coming decades” and that this will exacerbate existing health disparities.
This becomes a health equity issue, as the disproportionate effects of extreme heat will disproportionately affect certain populations.
To make these predictions, the researchers evaluated county-level data from the 48 contiguous states during the years 2008-2019. During that period, more than 12 million deaths related to cardiovascular diseases were recorded.
Using environmental models, the heat index was identified as exceeding 90 degrees Fahrenheit about 54 times each summer, and was linked to an average of 1,651 annual cardiovascular deaths nationwide. Some regions, such as the south and southwest, experienced a more significant impact than others.
Increase in temperature is equal to increase in cardiological conditions
Model analysis for the period 2036-2065 projects a substantial increase in days with extreme temperatures, estimating between 71 and 80 days each summer with temperatures above 90 degrees Fahrenheit.
This would translate into a 2.6-fold increase in annual heat-related cardiovascular deaths for the general population, rising from 1,651 to 4,320. However, if greenhouse gas emissions increase significantly, this number could reach 5,491.
The projections are even more alarming for older adults and the African-American population. For people 65 and older, deaths could nearly triple, rising from 1,340 to 3,842 if greenhouse gas emissions remain stable, or to 4,894 if they don’t. Among black adults, deaths could more than triple, rising from 325 to 1,512 or 2,063.
The study took multiple factors into account when comparing current and future populations, including age, underlying health conditions and place of residence. People with underlying medical conditions, such as diabetes and heart disease, are especially vulnerable to heat extreme, as their body has difficulty regulating temperature and they face a higher risk of heart attacks and strokes.
Some cities are already implementing cooling approaches, such as planting trees to provide shade, creating air-conditioned cooling centers, and using heat-reflective materials on streets and roofs. However, more research is required to understand how these approaches may impact population health.
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