The sudden attack launched by Hamas against Israel – the first of its kind – came at a time when the possibility of Saudi Arabia normalizing its relations with Israel is on the table.
The Saudi kingdom has always emphasized that this step, and its recognition of Israel, depend on the implementation of the two-state solution and a just response to the Palestinian refugee problem.
But the recent acceleration of this normalization, and Riyadh’s desire to establish close security cooperation with Washington and gain its support for its nascent peaceful nuclear program, It raised fears among Palestinians, especially in Hamas, that their cause would be ignored in new security arrangements and alliances in the region.
Anyone who follows what is happening in the Middle East must wonder how the Hamas attack on Israel and the Israeli bombings in Gaza could affect the plan to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and the government in Tel Aviv.
“Normalization cannot resolve this conflict”
In 2020, Israel normalized its relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, and strengthened its ties with Morocco and Sudan.
Negotiations have also been held between Israel and Saudi Arabia, under American mediation, with the aim of normalizing relations between the two countries.
Reaching a “historic peace agreement” with Saudi Arabia, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described it, would be of great importance for his country, given the weight political and economic of the kingdom, as well as his symbolic importance in the Arab and Islamic world.
For US President Joe Biden, who is seeking to run again for a second presidential term, the agreement would constitute a victory diplomacy for his 2024 electoral campaign.
Last September the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, He said that the normalization of relations with Israel was “increasingly” closer, although he recalled his country’s position that demands that any agreement include the addressing the problems of the Palestinians.
He added: “We hope that (talks with Israel) will lead to an outcome that makes life easier for the Palestinians and allows Israel to play a role in the Middle East.”
The normalization agreements are known to be strongly opposed by Palestinian factions, led by Hamas.
Ismail Haniya, head of the political bureau of Hamas, which governs the Gaza Strip, told media after Saturday’s attack on Israel: “All the normalization agreements that you have formed with that entity (Israel) cannot resolve this conflict. (Palestinian)”
The Lebanese group Hezbollah also issued similar statements, describing the Hamas attack as an attempt to remind that “the Palestinian problem is a living issue that will not die until victory and liberation.”
Observers interpreted the statements by Hamas and Hezbollah as a message to Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United States: security in the region will not be achieved if the Palestinians are left out of the equation.
Ahmed Abu Douh, an associate fellow at the British Royal Institute of International Relations (Chatham House) and a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, says that one of the main objectives of the Hamas attack “is to thwart the Israeli government’s attempts to separate the regional peace, represented by the normalization agreements, and the resolution of the Palestinian question.”
Hamas “broke down the door to the negotiating room”
Following the Hamas operation last Saturday, the Saudi Foreign Ministry issued a statement calling for “an immediate cessation of escalation between the two sides, the protection of civilians and self-restraint.”
He also recalled his “repeated warnings about the dangers of an explosion of the situation as a result of the continued occupation and the deprivation of the Palestinian people of their rights“.
A Saudi political analyst indicated in media statements that the position expressed by Saudi Arabia may be aimed at refuting doubts that the kingdom will prioritize normalization at the expense of support for Palestinian rights.
Saudi media quoted a US official as saying that recent developments will not derail normalization talks, although he admitted that at process has a long way to go.
Many observers believe it is difficult to imagine the talks moving forward at the same pace as they have so far, or even continuing, amid the events currently taking place in the Palestinian territories and Israel.
Ahmed Abu Douh believes that “the battle between Hamas and Israel will deep effects in normalization negotiations. Hamas simply decided to break down the door to the negotiating room… I think the process, at the very least, was postponed or archived.”
And he added: “If Saudi Arabia’s demands for Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians were on the margins of previous discussions, as Netanyahu always claims, today they have become a central part of any future negotiations, whether all parties like it or not.”
What will a future normalization look like?
It is true that the pace of normalization negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which are being carried out under American auspices, has accelerated recently, but that does not mean that they are not complex or that do not require difficult decisions and concessions from the three parties.
In addition to Saudi Arabia’s stated desire to “make life easier for the Palestinians,” the kingdom wants the United States to help it develop its nascent peaceful nuclear programas reported by the Reuters news agency citing regional sources, who say that Riyadh wants to conclude a joint defense agreement with Washington that guarantees its protection if it is attacked, two demands that are not welcomed by everyone on American soil or in Israel.
It seems that recent events complications will increase of the normalization plans and will extend their duration. The US government’s priority now is expected to be supporting its ally, Israel, after the attacks.
Ahmed Abu Douh believes that the path to normalization will depend “on the size of the Israeli response and the temporal and spatial scope of the fighting, especially if they expand to include the West Bank or continue for months.”
And he adds that, in this case, Riyadh will have to “wait until Biden’s second term or the arrival of a new president to the White House to restart negotiations.”
Before Saturday, some thought the pillars of what is being described as the “New Middle East” were close to completion. But the panorama now looks different.
“The ongoing fighting has demonstrated something that the Biden administration refuses to accept, which is that peace in the Middle East will not be achieved through normalization agreements with distant countries that have not fought Israel before, no matter how important they are. if a just and comprehensive peace is not achieved, and the roots of the Palestinian struggle are not directly and seriously addressed,” concludes Ahmed Abu Douh.
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