Photo: ANGELA WEISS,MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images
If the presidential election were at this time, President Joe Biden would have serious trouble beating former President Donald Trumpin case he was the Republican candidate, according to the average of national polls.
The Democratic president leads with an advantage of 0.5 percentage points about the Republican candidate, according to data from RealClearPolitics.
That advantage is really minimal, much less than the errors in the polls, which mark between three and five percentage points.
In that sense, either of the two applicants could achieve victoryaccording to projections, although with a slight advantage of President Biden, since some polls place him up to three percentage points above him.
For example, the Morning Consult poll on August 18 indicates that Biden would have 43% of the vote against 41% for former President Trump.
Even Fox News gives President Biden an advantage of two percentage points over Trump, but both this exercise and the previous one mark a minimal advantage, less than the error rate of the polls.
Surveys highlight negative opinions for both characterssince President Biden faces a negative rating, as marked by The Economis-YouGov poll, where 42% have a “very unfavorable” opinion.
The joint position on a “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” view for Biden ties in with the very unfavorable view.
Trump accumulates a “very unfavorable” opinion greater than that of Biden, with 46% of the opinions in the same survey.
And the Latino vote?
The Economis-YouGov report indicates that the president Biden registers a 32% “very unfavorable” opinion among Latino votersbut former President Trump obtains 53% in that same position.
“Support for Joe Biden among Latinos has been falling in recent months and I think that Latinos do not have a very positive point of view about Democrats, but it is more positive compared to Republicans,” explained Mark Hugo López, director of Race and Ethnicity of the Pew Research Center, in the podcast “El Diario Sin Límites” of this publishing house.
He noted that neither of the two parties “do not have a strong connection with the Latino population”something that was very clear with Barack Obama or George Bush, so the behavior of the Latino vote will be interesting in 2024.
“In the case of the election, we are going to have a lot of interest from this group, because in recent years and in the last elections, the support for the Republicans [ha llamado la atención], there is a lot of interest among US policy analysts,” López acknowledged. “[Se busca] know if the Latino vote is a ‘swing vote’ [voto indefinido] or if the Latino vote is a vote for the Democrats”.
The Pew expert emphasized the diversity of the Latino vote and the importance of stopping seeing these voters as a monolith.
“I think that the diversity of this group is a bit part of the history of the Latino vote, we are not a group with the same point of view,” he said.
Trump leads among Republicans
Despite the four judicial processes he faces, the former president Trump maintains a wide lead against his Republican opponentssuch as Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy and former Vice Presidents Mike Pence and Nikki Haley.
According to Morning Consult, 58% of Republicans support Trump, far from the 14% that DeSantis gets, Ramaswamy’s 10%, Pence’s 6% and Haley’s 3%.
If former President Trump did not compete in 2024 and DeSantis was the Republican standard-bearer, President Biden could win with a greater advantage, he would already obtain 43% of the votes against 37%, according to the same poll.
Trump faces 91 criminal charges in four separate lawsuits, two for his attempts to rig the 2020 presidential election, one for mishandling classified documents and another for paying $130,000 to porn star Stormy Daniels.
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