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According to the results of a survey conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), the majority of the economists surveyed stated that there is a 50% chance that this year the United States will enter a recession.
The report also mentioned that another 50% say the recession could hit early next year. The president of the NABE Business Conditions Survey, Carlos Herrera, pointed out that “the majority of panelists have more confidence in the economy over the next year, since they see that the probability of a recession decreases, ”he said.
In detail, 71% of the specialists surveyed indicated that the recession would be in the next 12 months, compared to the 44% surveyed in April.
In a statement, the president of NABE, Julia Coronado indicated that “the results of the NABE Survey of Business Conditions for July 2023 reflect an economics of increasing sales and profits, as the costs of materials and materials decrease. wage stabilization less challenging“he added.
Companies feel optimistic
Within the analysis, NABE economists pointed out that for the second half of this year, companies feel more optimistic about economic growth, although salaries remained the same during the first quarter, the companies surveyed mentioned that the competition between wages was a key factor for the increase in inflation.
However, the slow but constant deceleration of the inflation rate after the efforts of the Federal Reserve to bring it to 2% plus the resistance that the labor market has shown in recent months despite the rises in interest rates, continues to fuel economists’ hopes that the country can avoid a recession this year.
As Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Austan Goolsbee said earlier this month, “I feel like we’re on the golden path to avoid recession,” he said.
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