In an unexpected evolution of events, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, halted the advance of his troops towards Moscow on Saturday and ordered them to return to their bases to “avoid bloodshed.”
Russian state media reported that Prigozhin will leave for Belarus and charges against his fighters will be dropped.
The crisis began when the leader of the Wagner Group called for an uprising against the Russian army. President Vladimir Putin denounced the call for rebellion as a “betrayal” and called the troop movement a “a stab in the back” in a television speech.
Prigozhin, one of Russia’s top military figures and a longtime ally of Putin, said his goal was not “a military coup” but “a march for justice.”
Here we tell you how the events that led to one of the biggest challenges against Putin since he assumed the country’s presidency more than two decades ago were unleashed.
The start of the rebellion
Yevgeny Prigozhin posted a video on Friday saying the Kremlin’s justification for invading Ukraine was based on lies invented by the high command of the army.
In a frantic series of audio messages, he warned that thousands of fighters were heading to Moscow.
“Those who destroyed our guys, who destroyed the lives of many tens of thousands of Russian soldiers, will be punished. I ask that no one offer resistance.”
Prigozhin said that his actions were not a military coup. The Russian national security service, FSB, warned that it had opened a criminal case against him for calling an armed riot.
His statements arecalls at the start of an armed civil conflict on Russian territory,” the service noted.
“We urge the… fighters not to make irreparable mistakes, to stop any forceful action against the Russian people,” they added.
In the early hours of Saturday (local time), the rebel leader announced that his forces had crossed the border from Ukraine into southern Russia and said they were ready to “go all the way” against top military commanders.
Meanwhile, the state news agency, TASS, reported that security was being tightened in Moscow, focusing on the most important government sites and infrastructure in the capital.
“Before it is too late… must submit to the will and order of the president of the people of the Russian Federation. Stop the columns and return them to their permanent bases,” Army General Sergei Surovikin said in a video.
The leader of the Wagner Group had been openly accusing high command officials including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russia’s Top General Valery Gerasimov of incompetence and denying his organization ammunition and support for months.
The straw that seemed to have broken the camel’s back is the accusation that the Russian military launched a deadly missile attack against Wagner’s troops in the rear of the war in Ukraine.
The advance of the mercenaries and Putin’s reaction
The rebels advanced taking control of the Russian city of rostov-on-donin the south of the country, an important enclave because it houses the headquarters of the Russian command involved in repelling the Ukrainian counteroffensives.
While this was happening, the Russian Defense Ministry issued a statement calling on the mercenaries to abandon their leader.
Were “tricked and dragged into a criminal adventure“, the document stated.
Continuing the offensive, members of the Wagner Group took control of the military installations in the city of Voronezh, located about 500 kilometers south of Moscow.
As the mercenary troops advanced towards the capital, Vladimir Putin made a televised speech vowing to crush what he called “an armed riot“.
The president accused the leader of the group of treason, of embarking on an armed rebellion and of giving his country “a stab in the back.”
Subsequently, Russian military helicopters opened fire on a mercenary convoy more than halfway to Moscow in a lightning advance after taking Rostov overnight.
The decisive hours
Later, Sergei Naryshkin, head of Russia’s foreign intelligence service, said it was clear that Prigozhin’s attempt to destabilize andl country and start a civil war failedaccording to the state agency TASS.
For his part, the President of Turkey, Tayyip Erdogan, communicated with Putin and called on him to act with “common sense”, according to information provided by the Turkish presidency.
And the Belarusian government issued a statement reaffirming its alliance with Russia.
Meanwhile, the White House reported that the president of the United States, Joe Biden, communicated with the leaders of France, Germany and the United Kingdom, confirming his support for Ukraine.
As tension and uncertainty reached its peak, the TASS news agency reported that the government offered Wagner’s fighters an amnesty if they laid down their arms.
It was then that the office of the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, announced that it had negotiated a deal with Prigozhin.
In a radical turn of events, Wagner’s leader said that heyes gave the order to his fighters to stop the advance towards Moscow and return to their bases to “avoid bloodshed.”
A few hours later, Russian state media reported that Prigozhin would leave for Belarus and charges against his mercenaries following the rebellion will be dropped.
The breakdown of relationships
Prigozhin’s close ties to the Kremlin and Putin himself go back years.
In fact, the Wagner Group is believed to have defended Russian interests in Syria and Libya, as well as Sudan or the Central African Republic.
However, in recent months, Prigozhin repeatedly accused the Russian Defense Minister and the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of deliberately de-supplying Wagner’s units fighting in Ukraine.
Recent events have made it clear that the break in relations quickly reached a point of no return.
What will happen to the Wagner Group?
The transfer of Yevgeny Prigozhin to Belarus and the absorption of Wagner’s fighters into the Russian military could spell the end of the notorious mercenary team, according to Andrew D’Anieri of the US-based think tank Atlantic Council.
D’Anieri believes says that it’s hard to know exactly what will happengiven the chaotic and unclear nature of the information coming out of Russia.
But he also believes that Wagner’s withdrawal does not mean that all private military companies in Russia have been “out”.
“Although they are technically illegal in Russia, we have seen a proliferation of them in the last 12 months or so.”
D’Anieri notes that it has become clear over the past day “how small is the decision-making circle in Moscow” and how fragile is Vladimir Putin’s authority.
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