Nearly a year after Russia began its war against Ukraine, there are signs that China may be rethinking the concept of “unlimited friendship” that was memorably revealed days before the invasion.
Shocked by Putin’s failures in Ukraine and facing problems of his own, Beijing is now trying to limit the negative impact of Russia’s actions and repair its relationship with the West.
Just 20 days before Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, in early February of last year, President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
In this historic meeting, the leaders They spoke of “unlimited friendship” and “no areas prohibited in terms of cooperation.”
The Financial Times newspaper reported then that its sources had confirmed that the two leaders discussed Ukraine at that meetingand President Putin “did not rule out taking any action” if Russia came under attack.
But apparently, the Russian president he did not mention any plans to attack his neighbor.
Beijing’s precarious balance
Although we cannot be sure that Xi Jinping knew nothing of Russia’s war plans, the fact that China abstained from voting to condemn Moscow’s actions in March, instead voting against such condemnation, shows that Beijing did not want to close any doors.
Early in the war, some in China were enthusiastic about Russia’s military actions.
And many shared a translated video of the president’s speech. Putin announcing the start of the “special military operation”, the term Moscow uses to refer to the war in Ukraine.
but officially Beijing has maintained strategic ambiguity.
On the one hand, Chinese leaders blamed Washington for the start of the conflict, saying it was the consequence of NATO’s expansion in Europe.
For the other, China has been in no rush to provide significant assistance to Moscow.
Another major newspaper, the Washington Post, claims that Russia has repeatedly asked China for support, both financial and technological.
The Post reported that while Xi was not opposed to finding ways of “mutually beneficial cooperation with Moscow,” in reality all the negotiations were “tense”.
According to the Washington Post source, China “understands Russia’s situation, but it cannot ignore its own situation.”
limiting the damage
The only time the leaders of the two countries have met since the start of the war was in mid-September, at an international forum in the Uzbek city of Samarkand.
This occurred at the same time as Ukraine carried out a counteroffensivewhich allowed him to recapture large parts of territory that Russia had annexed only weeks before.
After the meeting, President Putin said that he highly appreciated lto “balanced position of Chinese friends” on the war.
President Xi Jinping expressed China’s readiness “together with Russia, to assume the role of great powers and play a leading role to bring stability and positive energy to the world.”
Behind the mutual pats on the back for the cameras, however, lay a complicated reality.
The war in Ukraine created a series of problems for China that could not be easily solved or sugarcoated.
The cost-of-living crisis caused in part by Russia’s energy war in Europe has meant that European consumers have had far less cash to spend on Chinese goods.
without investments
China’s refusal to openly condemn Russian aggression in Ukraine strained its relations with the West.
And the United States and the EU continue to be the main trading partners from China.
there hasn’t been new Chinese investment in Russia in the first six months of 2022.
Analysts suggest this is because Beijing is playing it safe and trying to avoid being hit by secondary sanctions from the United States.
Leonid Kovacic, a Russian expert on China, agrees that the statement of “friendship without limits” has not been reflected in actual steps.
“It would not be in China’s interests to complicate relations with the entire West at once.”
Given that China’s relations with the United States are likely to remain tense in the long term, the expert says, “it is important that Beijing does not worsen relations at least with the European Union.”
It is possible that China initially underestimated how sensitive the issue of war would be for the EU and how involved Europe would be in helping Ukraine, financially and militarily.
“That is why China is now trying to smooth things over, at least at the rhetorical level,” Kovacic adds.
The war in Ukraine has also influenced China’s handling of Taiwan which considers it a breakaway province.
- The important role of the “silicon shield” that protects Taiwan from China
Tensions in the region have risen steadily in recent months.
In December China held one of its largest air and sea exercises around Taiwan.
At the start of the war, many analysts were concerned that China would decide to take active action against Taiwan.
But now some analysts believe that China, seeing the unified reaction of the West (and in particular from the EU) to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it will not dare to do so.
Changing of the guard… and politics?
On January 9, newly appointed Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang spoke with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov.
The official version of what was discussed in the conversation, which took place “at the request of Moscow”, states that “China-Russia relations are based in non-alliance, non-confrontation and non-aggression to third parties”.
A statement that is far from the concept of “unlimited friendship” last February and even the words about “two great powers” from the September summit.
Qin’s appointment was followed by the removal of Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian, who has been in his post for the past three years.
Zhao was nicknamed the “Wolf Warrior” for his sharp tongue and combative style, defending China’s policies and criticizing his rivals, drawing comparisons to Maria Zakharova of the Russian Foreign Ministry, known for her skepticism towards the West and its harsh rhetoric.
Some analysts say Zhao’s dismissal from a high-profile post at the Foreign Ministry is a mere facade.
While others say that it is a major tactical adjustment that China has made to ease friction with other countries.
Improving relationships is key since China is trying to restore business confidence by abandoning his controversial “zero covid” policy and toning down rhetoric about “common prosperity” and social equality.
Moscow disappointment
Pro-government political analysts say off the record that Chinese authorities are disappointed in Moscow and his geopolitical miscalculation.
One sign of this was Xi Jinping’s indirect criticism of Vladimir Putin in November last year, when in a joint statement with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, He described as unacceptable “the use or threat of the use of nuclear weapons”.
The Financial Times quoted a Chinese official, who spoke on condition of anonymity: “Putin is crazy. The decision to invade Ukraine was made by a very small group of people. China should not follow Russia.”
Although it is unlikely that China sharply shifts its public rhetoric to an anti-Russian stancehe will almost certainly exercise caution and pragmatism, mitigating the consequences of Russia failing to achieve its goals in Ukraine and causing major international upheaval in the process.
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