In the last year, the government of President Joe Biden has avoided confrontation with the administration of the Mexican president Andres Manuel Lopez Obradorleaving the differences behind the scenes and advancing in agreements, which allows Mexico to reach the summit of North American leaders in a better position.
According to experts, the main reason is that the López Obrador and Biden administrations have too many open fronts and the only way to keep the agenda moving forward is through dialogue.
“Some of these things that we see, in terms of working together and moving forward, maybe it’s a recognition that they have to work together, we’re not going to solve these problems if we don’t find a way to talk to each other and collaborate,” said Carin Zissis. , editor-in-chief of Americas Society/Council of the Americas (AS/COA) online.
Zissis expressed the above in a virtual conference on the summit, which also included Eric Farnsworth, vice president and head of the Washington, DC, office of AS/COA; Canadian diplomat Louise Blais, and Enrique Perret, managing director of the US-Mexico Foundation (USMF).
For Perret, the dialogue currently being held by López Obrador and Biden has to do with the importance of institutionsunlike what happened with former President Donald Trump.
“We saw the relaunch of the High Level Economic Dialogue and the change from the Mérida plan to the Bicentennial model and these types of meetings, trilateral meetings, which the business sector, I think, are now very well organized in the trilateral area,” Perret acknowledged. “Those agendas… in the long term, they give you a better perspective to understand again that each country or each country has its own priorities, but it gives you a different tone… but also for that, obviously, it depends on the goals and the final results” .
Farnsworth acknowledged that as the electoral process in the US progresses, there could be a change in everything, especially on the part of the Republicans, who now control the House of Representatives and have set their sights on the immigration and drug trafficking agenda with the increase in deaths from fentanyl.
“[El fentanilo] It is an issue that we have to understand and you will hear a lot more about it when Republicans can organize to the extent that they can use this as a political platform,” Farnsworth acknowledged. “We are heading into another cycle of presidential elections in the United States. And there is no easier target to complain about things about Mexico… It’s an ugly reality, but it’s true. So I think you’re going to hear some additional political rhetoric as we get closer to 2024.”
And Canada?
Canadian diplomat Louise Blais, who was Canada’s Ambassador to the United Nations, highlighted the complicated agenda between the three countries, where the president Justin Trudeau will seek to focus on economic issues.
“It will have a really strong business angle…our priority will probably be in the energy areas, for example,” he said. “We are looking at areas of digital harmonization, the energy transition, actually, Canada would like us to look at the energy piece as a continent.”
He highlighted that the Canadian delegation organizes a meeting with small and medium-sized companies (SMEs), within the framework of the summit that will take place on January 9 and 10 in Mexico City.
“This shows that the development of SMEs and women is a priority for us, when women are minorities and companies run by minorities are a priority,” she said. “We would like to see a bit more in terms of infrastructure resiliency. This is an opportunity, what we’re talking about nearshoring to really work together to improve our capacity, our integration from the route to the ports, etc., to reduce the cost of shipping goods and services that are already on the market. quite healthy.”
Security, immigration and economy
The experts recognized that the trilateral agenda will have an important focus on the economy, but at least between the US and Mexico, security and immigration issues will be paramount.
A document shared by the experts lists the areas and problems that the Mexican, American and Canadian delegations must address at different levels.
Economy.- As the diplomat Blais mentions, ‘nearshoring’ and the future of supply chains will be a priority. Focus could include progress on electric vehicles, after the US enacted the Reduce Inflation Act and the CHIPS and Science Act, which create tax incentives for electric vehicles, batteries and other products made in America from North.
Although progress is also expected in the trade disputes between the three countries within the framework of the Mexico-United States-Canada Treaty (T-MEC or USMCA), since less than two years there have been 17 trade disputes: nine are from State to State ; two investor-States; five labor, and one is environmental.
“The three most viewed cases involve (1) US-Canada disputes against Mexican energy policies, (2) Mexico’s ban on GM corn, and (3) US interpretation of rules of origin for automobiles”, it stands out.
Immigration.- President Biden’s recent announcement on immigration, accepting 30,000 immigrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela, also represents a new challenge for Mexico.
“Other recently announced measures empower the government [de EE.UU.] to speed up the expulsion of migrants who illegally cross the borders of the United States, Mexico and Panama”, the experts indicate. “Mexico also faces a growing migration challenge.”
There are different programs, including the Mexican government’s plan to expand its Border Worker Visitor Card program for Guatemalans, doubling its issuance to up to 20,000 visas, while Canada plans to provide $55.9 million to promote job creation in Latin America.
Security.- Fentanyl trafficking is the main concern between Mexico and the US, but the recent arrest of Ovidio Guzmán Lópezson of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, shows an encouraging path on this front, the experts recognized.
The High Level Security Dialogue has allowed Mexico and the US to reinforce their actions.
“Mexican fentanyl seizures quadrupled from 2019 to 2021, and the country expanded its ‘chemical watch list’ of precursors from 14 to 72,” it was reported. “Under the White House National Drug Control Strategy 2022, US and Mexican agencies have been working together… to improve port security.”