The conflict in Ukraine is about to enter its second year.
We asked various military analysts how they think events on the ground will play out in 2023.
Could the war conclude next year? And in that case how? On the battlefield or at the negotiating table?
Or will the battles continue until 2024?
“Russia’s spring offensive will be key”
Michael Clarke, Associate Director, Institute for Strategic Studies, Exeter, UK
Those who seek to invade another country anywhere on the great Eurasian steppes are eventually doomed to spend the winter there.
Napoleon, Hitler and Stalin had to keep their armies on the move in the face of a steppe winter, and now, with his invasion receding on the ground, Vladimir Putin is entrenching his forces for the winter in anticipation of a new Russian offensive in the spring.
Both sides need a break, but Ukrainians are better equipped and motivated to continue, and we can expect them to keep up the pressure, at least in Donbas.
Around Kreminna and Svatove they are very close to a breakthrough that would push Russian forces back some 64km to the next natural defensive line, close to where their invasion actually began in February.
Kyiv will be loath to stop when the immediate prize is so big. However, the Ukrainian offensive could be halted in the southwest, after the recapture of Kherson.
Crossing to the east side of the Dnipro River to put pressure on Russia’s vulnerable road and rail links to Crimea might be too demanding.
But you can never rule out the possibility that Kyiv launch new surprise offensive.
For 2023, the key determining factor will be the fate of Russia’s spring offensive.
Putin admitted that around 50,000 of the newly mobilized troops are already on the front lines; the other 250,000 of the newly mobilized are training for next year.
There is no room for anything but more war until the fate of those new Russian forces is resolved on the battlefield.
A brief and unstable ceasefire is the only alternative prospect. Putin has made it clear that he will not stop. And Ukraine has made it clear that it is still fighting for its life.
“Ukraine will get back its land“
Andrei Piontkovsky, Washington DC-based scientist and analyst
Ukraine will win, fully restoring its territorial integrity by spring 2023 at the latest.
Two factors point to this conclusion.
One is the motivation, determination and courage of the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian nation as a whole, which is unprecedented in the history of modern warfare.
The other is the fact that, after years of appeasing a Russian dictator, The West has finally grown up to realize the magnitude of the challenge history you are facing.
This is best illustrated by a recent statement by the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Jens Stoltenberg.
“The price we pay is in money. While the price Ukrainians pay is in blood. If authoritarian regimes see that force is rewarded, we will all pay a much higher price. And the world will be more dangerous for everyone.”
The exact moment of the inevitable Ukrainian victory it will be determined by the speed at which NATO can deliver a revolutionary new package of military assault weapons (tanks, planes, long-range missiles).
I expect Melitopol to become the key battle point in the coming months (maybe weeks). Having seized Melitopol, the Ukrainians will easily move into the Azov Sea, effectively cutting off the supply and lines of communication with the Crimea.
Russian capitulation will be formally agreed in technical talks after devastating Ukrainian advances on the battlefield.
The victorious powers (Ukraine, UK, USA) will shape a new international security architecture.
“There is no end in sight”
Barbara Zanchetta, Department of War Studies, King’s College, London
Vladimir Putin expected Ukraine’s passive acceptance of its more powerful neighbor’s actions, without significant involvement from other countries.
This serious miscalculation It has led to a protracted conflict, with seemingly no end in sight.
The winter will be difficult, as Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure will attempt to break the morale and resilience of an already shattered population.
But Ukrainian resilience has proven remarkable. They will stand firm. The war will go on and on.
Negotiation prospects are bleak. For a possible peace agreement, the central demands of at least one side must change.
There is no evidence that this has happened, or that it will happen anytime soon.
How will the end come then?
The costs of the war, both material and human, could break the level of commitment of the Russian political elite. The key will be inside Russia.
Past wars in which miscalculation was a crucial element, such as Vietnam for the US or Afghanistan for the Soviet Union, only ended this way.
Internal political conditions changed in the country that had miscalculated, making exit -whether “honorable” or not- the only viable option.
However, this It can only happen if the West stands firm in its support for Ukraine, in the face of growing internal pressures linked to the costs of the war.
Unfortunately, this will remain a protracted political, economic and military battle of determination. And by the end of 2023, most likely is still in progress.
“No other result except Russian defeat”
Ben Hodges, former commanding general of the US Army in Europe
It is too early to plan a victory parade in Kyiv, but now all the momentum is in the Ukraine and I have no doubt that they will win this war, probably in 2023.
Things will move more slowly over the winter, but there is no doubt that the Ukrainian forces will be in better shape than the Russian ones due to all the winter equipment coming from the UK, Canada and Germany.
By January, Ukraine could be in a position to start the final phase of the campaign which is the liberation of Crimea.
History has shown us that war is a test of will and a test of logistics.
When I see the determination of the Ukrainian people and soldiers and the rapid improvement of Ukraine’s logistical situation, I see no other possible outcome than a Russian defeat.
The Russian withdrawal from Kherson has led me in part to this conclusion. First of all, as a psychological boost for the Ukrainian people; second, as a deep shame for the Kremlin; and third, by giving Ukrainian forces a key operational advantage: all approaches to Crimea are now within range of Ukrainian weapons systems.
I believe that Ukraine’s control and sovereignty over Crimea will be fully restored by the end of 2023, although there may be some kind of agreement that allows Russia to reduce part of its naval presence in Sevastopol… maybe even until the end of the treaty (approximately 2025) that existed before Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea.
Reconstruction efforts of Ukrainian infrastructure will take place along the Azov Sea coast, including the important ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk, and the reopening of the North Crimean Canal that diverts water from the Dnipro to Crimea will be another project. important that you receive attention.
“Expect more of the same”
David Gendelman, Israel-based military expert
Instead of “how is it going to end”, I will tell you what each side would like to achieve in the next phase.
Only about half of the 300,000 mobilized Russian troops are already in the combat zone. The remainder, together with the forces released for action after the withdrawal from Kherson, give the Russians the opportunity to launch an offensive.
The occupation of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions will continue, but a Russian breakthrough, such as a push from the south to Pavlograd to encircle Ukrainian forces in Donbas, is less likely.
most likely a continuation of current tactics: a slow crushing of the Ukrainian forces in narrow directions and a slow advance, as in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas, with possible identical tactics in the Svatove-Kreminna area.
Continuing to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure and further attacks on the Ukrainian rear will complete this strategy of war of attrition.
Significant Ukrainian forces were also released after a Russian withdrawal from Kherson. For them, the most strategically valuable direction is south, towards Melitopol or Berdyansk, with the aim of cutting off the corridor from the Russian mainland to Crimea.
That it would be a great ukrainian victoryand that is exactly why the Russians are fortifying Melitopol.
Another option for Ukraine is Svatove – success there would endanger the entire northern flank of the entire Russian front.
The big question is how many Ukrainian forces are free and available for the offensive right now, and what does General Zaluzhnyi’s schedule say about how many new brigades and reserve corps being assembled, including manpower, armored vehicles and heavy weapons, will be ready in one, two or three months.
After the mud freezes, we will get the answer to this question. And this answer will bring us a little closer to knowing “how it will end.”
The analysts were chosen for their military experience and combination of perspectives.
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