In just over a month, winter weather will descend on Ukraine.
It is a circumstance that -despite the recent victories of the Ukrainian army, such as the capture of Kherson this week- could hinder its armed forces in their attempt to further recapture Russian-occupied territory.
Russia could also try to keep the Ukrainian civilian population cold by attacking more power plants and fuel depots.
We analyze how winter can affect the conflict.
How cold is winter in Ukraine?
Between December and March, average temperatures in Ukraine fall between -4.8 ºC ( 35 ºF) and 2 ºC (35 ºF).
On average, it snows during 13 days in December, during 20 days in January and meanwhile 15 days in February.
In each of these months more than 1.5 meters of snow fall.
However, Winters are milder in the south of the country, along the Black Sea coast, than in the north.
How will the winter weather affect the war in Ukraine?
In Kyiv in the north, temperatures are already dropping to freezing point.
In January, the average temperature is from -3.8 C (17 F) and at night, temperatures drop to an average minimum of -6.1 C (20 F).
However, in the southern region of Kherson, the average January temperature is significantly higher high: -0.9 C.
The average minimum is -3.7 C.
This means that on the front lines in northeastern Ukraine, temperatures can drop enough for the ground to freeze.
However, on the front lines near the Kherson region, winter snow and rain can turn the ground to mud.
What will winter mean for combat troops?
Muddy ground and deep snow will make it difficult for troops and their vehicles to move quickly.
This would put the Ukrainian troops at a disadvantage, says Forbes Mackenzie, CEO of Mackenzie Intelligence Services, because it would prevent them from moving quickly.
“Ukrainians will want a cold, harsh winter with frozen ground so continue to maneuver quickly and outflank the Russian forces”, he says.
“However, the Russians will want to a winter not hot and humid that bogs down the Ukrainians”.
A major problem for both Ukraine as for Russia it will be how to keep their forces supplied.
“Troops need more food in winter and more fuel to stay warm,” says Ben Barry, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
“However, both sides are used to cold weather, and their equipment has been designed for cold weather , so the winter weather won’t completely stop your troops from engaging,” he says.
How will winter weather affect the fighting?
Many military experts think that during the winter, both the Russian and Ukrainian militaries will focus more on warfare attacks. artillery than in ground attacks.
“In winter, it is more difficult to deliver supplies and troops are more vulnerable to shortages,” says Marina Miron, a defense researcher at Kings College London.
“Both sides will use long-range artillery and drones to attack supply lines and supply depots, with the goal of depleting enemy resources“.
However, fog and snow storms could affect the ability of each side to detect artillery targets, unless they are using infrared imaging equipment.
Both the Ukrainian and Ukrainian armed forces of Russia rely heavily on drones and many of them are standard types equipped with basic cameras.
Will Russia attack Ukrainian civilians this winter?
Russia has already launched several attacks against civilian residential areas and facilities, such as power plants and waterworks.
Orysia Lutsevych, director of the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House think tank, says she is likely to continue this strategy through the winter .
“Civilians expect continuous attacks on infrastructure, mainly to deprive them of heat,” he says.
“Now people are refueling as wood and buying stoves and braziers. Places like hospitals are buying their own generators.”
Russia’s strategy is now in the hands of General Sergei Surovikin, newly appointed commander in head of forces fighting in Ukraine.
General Sergei Surovikin is President Putin’s new commander-in-chief for Russian troops in Ukraine.
He is known as the “General Armageddon” due to his heavy-handed tactics while commanding operations in Syria and elsewhere.
His goal is probably to cause a collapse in morale among the population from Ukraine, says Miron.
“Russia believes that if people freeze and despair, they can revolt against his government,” he says.
However, says Lutsevych, Ukraine is relatively well prepared for winter.
“Gas storage facilities are full and you have large supplies of fuel such as diesel,” he says.
“The People realize that Russia is not winning the war and that if they can get through the winter, they can have more successes against Russia in the spring.”
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