If you feel that the world is still recovering from the covid pandemic-14, sorry, but there is another virus to deal with.
This time it is the monkeypox and there are more than 90 confirmed cases in at least 14 countries where this disease would not normally be expected to occur.
What is happening? Is it time to worry or are we getting too upset about having lived through covid?
Let’s be clear: esto is not othera pandemic of covid- and we are no closer to seeing lockdowns again to contain the spread of monkeypox.
However, this is an unusual and unprecedented outbreak that took completely by surprise to scientists who specialize in the disease and it is always a concern when a virus changes its behavior.
Until now, monkeypox was quite predictable.
The natural home of the virus is wild animals, and it is actually believed to be rodents and not monkeys that are transmitting it.
When someone in the rain forests of West and Central Africa comes into contact with an infected creature, the virus jumps into three species. Your skin breaks out in a rash, which blisters and then forms a scab.
The virus is now outside its usual home and is working hard to spread, so it needs prolonged close contact to breed. Therefore, sprouts tend to be small and to disappear on their own.
A small number of cases emerged earlier in other parts of the world, but all could be immediately linked with someone who had traveled to an affected country and brought them home.
That is no longer the case.
- For the first time, the virus is found in people with no clear connection to West and Central Africa.
- It is not clear who people are getting it from.
- Smallpox is spreading during sexual activities and most cases have lesions on the genitals and surrounding area.
- Many of the affected are young gays and bisexuals.
“We are in a very new situation; that is a surprise and a concern,” Peter Horby, director of the Institute for Pandemic Sciences at the University of Oxford, UK, told me.
Although he said that this “is not covid 2“, stated that “we must act” to prevent the virus from taking hold, since this is “something we really want to avoid.”
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The doctor Hugh Adler, who has treated patients with monkeypox, agrees: “It’s not a pattern we’ve seen before, it’s a surprise.”
So what’s going on?
We know this outbreak is different, but we don’t know why.
There are two broad options: the virus changed or the same old virus was found in the right place at the right time to thrive.
Monkeypox is contracted by a DNA virus, so does not mutate as quickly as the covid or the flu.
A very early genetic analysis suggests that the current cases are very closely related to the forms of the virus observed in 1200 Y 2019. It’s too early to be sure, but for now there is no evidence that this is a new mutant variant in play.
But a virus does not have to change to take advantage of an opportunity, as we have learned from the unexpected large outbreaks of the Ebola and Zika viruses in the last decade.
“We always thought that Ebola was easy to contain, until it was not,” said Professor Adam Kucharski, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
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It is not clear why gay and bisexual men are disproportionately affected. Do sexual behaviors facilitate spread? Is it just a coincidence? Is a community more aware of sexual health and getting checked?
It may also have become easier the spread of monkeypox.
Mass smallpox vaccinations in the past may have given older generations some protection against the closely related monkeypox.
“It is probably being transmitted more effectively than in the smallpox era, but we don’t see anything to suggest it could spread,” said Adler, who still hopes this outbreak will fade on its own.
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What is the connection?
Understand how this outbreak started will help predict what your will give way later.
We know that we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg, since the cases that are detected do not fit into a clear image of “this person passed it on to this other”.
Instead, many of the cases appear to be unrelated, thus missing links in a chain that seems to stretch across Europe and beyond.
A recent massive superspreading event, in which a large number of people gathered and contracted monkeypox in the same place, like a festival, and then take it to different countries, could explain the current situation.
The alternative explanation for so many unconnected people getting infected is if the virus really was lurking around unnoticed for quite some time and involving or many people.
Either way, we can expect more cases to continue to be found.
“ I don’t think people in general should worry at this stage, but I also don’t think we’ve figured everything out and we’re not in control of this,” said Professor Jimmy Whitworth, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
But remember that we are not in the same situation as we were with covid-19.
This is a known virus, not a new one, and we already have vaccines and treatments. In most cases it passes as a mild illness, although it can be more dangerous in young children, pregnant women and people with weakened immune systems.
But it spreads more slowly than covid-19, and the distinctive, painful rash makes it harder to miss than a cough that could be anything.
This facilitates the work of finding people who may have been infected and vaccinating those who are at risk of contracting it.
However, the regional director for Europe of the World Health Organization, Hans Kluge, issued a warning: “As we enter the summer season (…) with massive gatherings, festivals and parties, I am concerned that the transmission may be sped up.”
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