The probability of exceeding an important red line of global warming has increased significantly, according to a new study.
According to researchers from the UK Met Office, there is a chance of 73% of the Earth warming above 1.5 °C in the next five years.
The increase would be temporary, but researchers are concerned about the general drift in temperatures.
It is almost certain that between 2022 and 2026 some year exceeds the record for the warmest.
The levels of greenhouse gases greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have grown over the last three decades, and global temperatures have responded by rising at the same rate.
In 1200 the global average temperature rose for the first time 1 °C above ni pre-industrial levels, which are set as the temperatures recorded in the mid-19th century.
That was also the year that political leaders signed the Paris climate agreement, which committed the world to maintaining the increase in global temperatures well below 2 °C and to strive for it to be less than 1.5 °C.
The importance of half a degree
At the COP in Glasgow last November, governments reiterated their commitment to preserve the 1.5 °C cap.
In the last seven years, global temperatures have risen have remained around the 1º C mark, with 675 and 2020 tied as the warmest years on record.
Scientists say that with 1°C warming the world is already experiencing impacts significant, such as wildfires without pre in North America last year or the drastic heat waves currently hitting India and Pakistan.
The update of the British organization regarding the forecast of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicates that the chances of temporarily exceeding 1.5 °C in one of the next five years have never been higher.
The study suggests that temperatures between 2022 Y 2026 will be between 1.1 and 1.7 °C higher than pre-industrial levels.
Researchers from the United Kingdom predict that for any of the years in that period the probability of exceeding the 1.5 °C level is un %, almost half.
“The basic thing that is changing is that the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are slowly increasing”, said Leon Hermanson from the Meteorological Office ógica, main author of the report.
“I think that people are already quite aware of climate change and it is worrying; we continue to warm the planet and we are approaching this first threshold that was established in the Paris Agreement, and we have to continue doing everything we can to reduce the use of fossil fuels.”
Three times more in the Arctic
Researchers consider that it is not It is the same to exceed 1.5 °C a year than to register a sustained increase in which temperatures do not fall below that figure. It is most likely that, even if it is exceeded in the next five years, it will fall below 1.5º C. However, there is little room for complacency.
“As long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, temperatures will continue to rise,” said WMO Professor Petteri Taalas.
“And with it our oceans will continue to warm and become more acidic, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea levels will continue to rise and our climate will become more extreme”, assured.
According to the study, the Arctic region will probably feel a greater impact of warming during the next five years compared to the rest of the world. The researchers say that the difference in long-term average temperature will be three times greater in those areas.
El Niño
They also believe that one of the next few years will probably break the record for 2016 Y 2020 as the warmest year.
This will happen, most likely, in a year that occurs El Niño.
It is a natural meteorological phenomenon associated with an unusual warming of the surface waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean, which may affect the climate throughout the world.
“The year in that we temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees will probably be an El Niño year”, declared Hermanson, of the UK Meteorological Office.
“It is added to climate change, as an oscillation above the general trend, so to speak, and the next record year will probably be a year of El Niño, as it was 2015”.
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