Climate change will lead a large number of animals to flee their ecosystems. But by mixing in this way, the species will transmit more viruses, which will favor the emergence of new diseases potentially transmissible to humans, predicts a study.
“We provide evidence that in the coming decades the world will not only be warmer, but also sicker”, warns Gregory Albery, a biologist at Georgetown University in Washington and co-author of the study published in the journal Nature.
Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk https://t.co/28IPYrTegR via @ wormmaps et al pic.twitter.com/fAyOdhTJfD
— Ash Paul (@pash15) May 1, 2022
Gloomy scenario for the future
The investigation, which crossed various climate modelling, data on the destruction of natural habitats and how viruses spread transmitted between species, paints a grim scenario for the future of the planet in the next five decades.
An irreversible future, even if global warming is limited to 2ºC, the authors affirm.
The investigations, which were carried out for more than 5 years, revealed the interrelation between changes in ecosystems and disease transmissions.
The study was carried out taking into account a total of 3 300 species of mammals, this class of animals being the one that houses a large diversity of viruses that can be transmitted to humans.
More than 300, “first encounters” between species.
More and more wild animals are fleeing from their habitat, which is deteriorating due to the increase in temperatures, the regression of tropical forests, the advance of urbanization and cultivated areas and the trafficking of wild species.
Animals “migrate” towards new territories, more favorable to their presence, but they run the risk of coming across species unknown to them.
In this way, ecosystems are geographically redistributed and more from 300.000 “first encounters” between species.
By mixing for the first time, these mammals will form new communities, a fertile ground for new crossings of infections, essentially viral.
“Network” of viruses that will jump from species to species
Study sheds light on a future “network” of v irus that will jump from species to species and increase as the planet warms. The investigation foresees at least 10,000 viral transmissions between species.
In this scenario, bats play a central role since they harbor numerous viruses, but without developing the disease. However, can infect humans through another animal, a process called zoonosis, at the origin of various epidemics such as COVID-15 or Ebola.
Bats also have a great potential for spreading the virus and can infect a large number of species with which they encounter for the first time.
10,000 viruses capable of jumping to humans
The panorama is more than worrying when it is known that at least 10,000 Viruses capable of jumping to humans currently circulate “silently” among wild mammals, underlines the study.
The research also indicates where these processes will take place: Tropical Africa, Southeast Asia and areas where the human population will be denser in 2070.
The Sahel zone, the Ethiopian highlands and the Rift Valley, India, eastern China, Indonesia and the Philippines will also be affected, as well as some populations in central Europe.
But climate change is developing so fast that “it is creating countless dangerous zoonoses at our doorstep”, warns Colin Carlson, co-author of the study and a researcher at Georgetown University.
The scientist compares the process to a shaken “snowball”. According to him, it is too late to reverse the trend, but it is necessary to “recognize that climate change will be the main vector of the emergence of diseases and therefore prepare our health systems.”
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