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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned about the risks that would slow down the development of the global economy and reduced its growth expectation to 3.6%, according to its latest report.
The global economy is going through a scenario of uncertainty due to new outbreaks of covid-19 that has led countries like China to implement new closures and also to the consequences of Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine.
The new forecast is overwhelming when compared to the 6.1% that the IMF had projected in 2021 and represents almost one percentage point less from the 4.4% of last January.
“This crisis is unfolding even when the global economy has not yet has fully recovered from the pandemic”, said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist of the FM I, in a blog post in the context of the publication of the report World Economic Outlook.
The scenario of uncertainty has generated disagreements between politicians and representatives of central banks in the United States and Europe , according to a report by The New York Times.
The conflict stems from the fact that central banks have sought to control inflation, the worst in 40 years in the United States, but with the challenge of not slowing growth and the risk of leading the economies into a recession.
But the global scenario does not seem to show signs of certainty. In Ukraine, the war that began in February has no end in sight and the consequences of the sanctions will be more and more evident.
The reduction in the supply of worldwide, the scarcity of basic products such as corn and wheat, as well as other commodities, will put more pressure on the inflation indicators of various countries.
Meanwhile, lInternational supply chains face a new challenge after China’s strict measures to control new outbreaks of covid-19.
Growth could slow further, while inflation could exceed our projections if, for example, sanctions are extended to Russian energy exports”, considered Olivier Gourinchas.
But the control of inflation at the international level seems distant, since even if the supply chain problems are resolved, economists believe that high prices will remain for the rest of 2021.
According to the IMF , in developed economies inflation will have an average of 5.7% , while emerging economies have the worst part with 8.7% on average.