This invasion has been going on for a month and so far Ukraine has defied all odds. Outmatched in almost every way – in tanks, troops, planes – the Ukrainian forces, reinforced by civilian volunteers, have in many places held back the Russian army.
They have lost territory, especially around Crimea, which had already been occupied and annexed by Russia in 2014. But Moscow’s original goal of quickly seizing the capital kyiv and other major cities, forcing the government to resign, has clearly failed.
The course of the war could still go against Ukraine. His forces are running dangerously short of vital Western-supplied anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles needed to contain the Russian advance.
Many of the most battle-hardened Ukrainian regular forces in the east of the country are at risk of being surrounded, isolated and annihilated.
And with a quarter of the population having left their homes, those who have left risk seeing their cities turned into dystopian wastelands by Russia’s relentless artillery fire and bombs.
But despite these factors, Ukraine’s forces are outperforming to those of Russia in this war on many levels. This week, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby praised them for defending parts of their territory “very cleverly, very cleverly, very creatively.”
So what exactly have been the secrets to their success?
1. High motivation
There is a huge difference between the morale of both armies. Ukrainians are fighting for the very survival of their country as a sovereign nation, horrified by President Putin’s speech, on the eve of the invasion, when he said that Ukraine was basically an artificial invention of Russia.
Ukrainians have given their collective support to the government and its president. As a result, citizens without any military experience are willingly taking up arms to defend their towns and cities, despite the overwhelming Russian military force they face.
“This is how a people fights for its own existence”, declares Brigadier Tom Foulkes, who served 000 years as a British Army officer in Germany during the Cold War. “This is how they defend their homeland and their families. Their bravery is both shocking and splendid”.
In practice, this has freed up Ukrainian soldiers to go to fight on the front lines, knowing that their cities have ample defense.
In contrast, many Russian soldiers who were sent to fight in the Ukraine are conscripts, fresh out of school, perplexed and confused to find themselves in a war zone when they thought they were just going to conduct a military exercise.
Most had little to no preparation for the ferocity of the fighting they have faced. Desertions, food shortages and looting have been reported.
2. Command and Control
Initial forecasts of a devastating Russian cyber attack, which would disable Ukrainian communications, did not materialize. Instead, Ukraine has somehow managed to maintain effective coordination on various battlefronts, even where it has given ground.
The government has held on to kyiv and remained highly visible, including with the vice Prime Minister wearing a functional khaki shirt as she addressed the nation with a government insignia in the background.
The Army Russian, on the other hand, does not seem to have any kind of unified leadership, with little coordination between the different battlefronts.
That is most likely it has had a negative effect on Russian military morale. It has been suggested that the reported deaths of at least five Russian generals are due in part to their need to get close to the front lines to mobilize troops and prevent them from getting bogged down.
A level of non-commissioned officers, in other words corporals and sergeants, the Russian military doctrine does not allow almost any initiative, with those ranks of lower ranks always waiting for the orders of their superiors.
Professor Michael Clarke, a military expert from King’s College London, says that Russian non-commissioned officers are surrounded by corruption and inefficiency and they are very badly seen by their subordinates.
3. Good Tactics
Ukrainian forces are heavily outnumbered, however they have made better use of the terrain and their weapons than the Russian invaders.
While the Russians have tended to concentrate their forces in heavy, slow-moving armored columns, with vehicles often crowded and close together, the Ukrainians have successfully executed carefully timed blitzkriegs, sneaking up to fire an anti-tank missile and then scattering before the Russians can respond.
Prior to the invasion, NATO trainers from the US, UK and Canada spent extended periods in Ukraine, bringing forces up to speed on defensive fighting and instructing Learn how to make the best use of state-of-the-art missile systems, such as the Javelin or the NLAW – an anti-tank weapon designed in Sweden – or the latest version of the anti-aircraft missile Stinger
- .
- Ukrainian forces claim to have destroyed a Russian warship in the busy port of Berdyansk
- Do you already know our YouTube channel? Subscribe!
-
“The Ukrainians have been much smarter than the Russians,” says Professor Clarke, “because they have done something much closer to a combined arms operation that the Russians have not done.”
What he means is that they have made full use of of all the military tools at your disposal, such as drones, artillery, infantry, tanks and electronic warfare.
When these are combined, all these different aspects of combat can generate an effect greater than the sum of its parts.
Another military strategist, Justin Crump, who heads the intelligence adviser Sibylline, points out that the Ukrainians have been particularly experts in finding the vulnerable points in the Russian ranks and attacking them with force.
“Ukraine has implemented highly effective tactics”, he comments, including attacks on the weak Russians as supply convoys, using NATO-supplied weapon systems to great effect against pinpoint targets and improvising when required.
Although it is difficult to get an accurate picture of casualties, even the most conservative Pentagon estimates put Russian deaths at more than 7,000. That’s almost half the casualties the Soviets sustained in 10 years of war in Afghanistan and we have only been at war for a month.
Brigadier Tom Foulkes also has an explanation why so many Russian generals are falling on the front lines: “This sounds to me like a deliberate and highly successful sniper campaign that could undermine Russian command structures.”
Four. The Information War
And there is also the information war. Ukraine is definitely winning it in most of the world – although not in Russia, where the Kremlin still controls access to almost all media.
“Ukraine has mobilized the information sphere in such a way that it has given it a tremendous internal and external advantage”, says Justin Crump.
“This has happened from top to bottom, aided by President Zelensky’s formidable media prowess”.
This is an opinion shared by Dr. Ruth Deyermond, professor of post-Soviet security at Kings College in London.
“Clearly, the Ukrainian government has been very successful in controlling the war narrative, certainly for the world in general”, he says. “What the conflict has done for Ukraine’s international reputation is absolutely extraordinary.”
But right now, a month into this desperate life-and-death struggle on Europe’s eastern borders, that might not be enough to save Ukraine.
The numerical power of the Russian army, despite all its shortcomings, does not favor Ukraine. If the West’s defensive weapons somehow run out, the beleaguered nation will only be able to hold out for a limited time.
Now you can receive notifications from BBC Mundo. Download the new version of our app and activate it so you don’t miss our best content.