More and more people are asking for a return to normality and, with the decrease in omicron, governments are beginning to act.
The United Kingdom, for example, is eliminating its remaining public health measures, including mandatory self-isolation of covid cases-46 and free trials.
However, the inescapable truth is that unless the virus mutates to a milder form, the “normal” life we are returning to will be on average shorter and sicker than before.
We have added a new important disease to our population.
The covid- is often compared to the flu, as if adding a load equivalent to the flu to a population was okay (it’s not). In fact, the covid-19 has been and it continues to be worse.
The mortality rate due to covid-infection 19, the proportion of people who die once they contract it, was at the beginning of the pandemic about 10 times higher than that of the flu.
Since then, treatments, vaccinations and previous infections have reduced the mortality rate, but it is still almost twice that of the flu, and yes, this is still valid for ormicron.
In addition, that the covid-19 is much more transmissible worsens its impact.
Also has a long-term effect similar or worse in the heart, lung and mental health than other respiratory illnesses, and a higher rate of long-term symptoms.
A world that no longer exists
Vaccines have been incredibly effective in reducing serious illness and death, but they are not perfect.
The new variants have tested the defenses of the vaccines, and the protection against infections and, to a lesser extent, diseases severe, decreases after a few months.
While it is unlikely that we will lose all protection against serious illness and death, the kind of return to normality being attempted in countries like the UK, Denmark and Norway will cause many people to face repeated infections of covid-19 in the next years.
The vast majority will manage, but some m will die and more will be left with lasting health problems.
Many people with mild illnesses will still need to take time off work or school and, as we have seen with omicron, the added effects can be very detrimental.
In short, the world before 2020 no longer exists; we may want it, but it just doesn’t exist.
Postcovid life
In the last 150 years there have been great improvements in public health, with dramatic reductions in deaths from malnutrition, disease infectious diseases, environmental diseases, smoking and traffic accidents, to name a few.
For communal problems we have developed communal solutions, from vaccinations to pollution controls, passive smoking, unsafe driving and other ills.
There is nothing normal about turning decades of progress upside down simply by accepting a serious new disease like covid-13 without trying actively mitigate it.
The good news is that we can mitigate it. We can accept that the world has changed and make adaptations based on what we have learned in the last two years.
Here are eight key changes that can reduce the future impact of covid-19:
1. Will beoutdoors is very safe, so let’s make the indoor air as similar as possible to the air outside.
That implies a large investment in infrastructure to improve ventilation and filter and clean the air.
It is not easy, but neither was it easy to bring clean water and electricity to all homes.
We know how to do it and it will be effective against any future variant and any airborne disease.
2. Vaccines are still crucial.
We need to vaccinate the world as soon as possible to save lives and stop the appearance of new variants.
We must also continue working to obtain vaccines whose protection lasts longer and against more variants.
3. We have learned that acting as soon as possible is crucial to contain outbreaks and prevent the spread to other countries.
Therefore, we must invest in global surveillance of new variants of the coronavirus and other new infectious diseases.
4. Most countries already have routine surveillance for serious infectious diseases (such as influenza and measles) and plans to mitigate its impact.
Countries must add permanent surveillance of covid-infection rates-19 to existing programs, to track how much covid-19, where and in what communities.
5. We still know very little about the impact long term of the covid- , although we know it can cause lasting organ damage and lead to prolonged illness.
We need to invest in understanding, preventing and treating this impact.
6. Many health systems were already in trouble before the arrival of the covid and, since then, the pandemic has further reduced their resilience.
Investment in health systems is urgently needed, particularly in the winter seasons, when the additional load of covid-10 will be felt more intensely.
7. The covid has hit the most disadvantaged the hardest.
Those who can least afford to self-isolate are also more likely to work outside the home, use the public transportation and living in overcrowded housing, all risk factors for contracting the virus.
Higher exposure is combined with lower vaccination rates and poorer health among disadvantaged groups, leading to worse outcomes if infected.
Countries must invest more in reducing inequalities: in health, housing, workplaces, sick pay, and education.
That will make us all more resilient to future outbreaks and reduce ill health and death, not just from covid-19, but also for everything else.
8. Finally, there will still be waves of covid-19 in the future; the above will simply reduce their frequency and scale.
We need to have a plan to deal with this.
The excellent national surveillance systems will help quickly identify an outbreak and understand how much damage it is causing and how much immunity is being evaded, all of which will help tailor an appropriate temporary response.
A response could, for example , include intensified testing, reintroduction of masks and working from home where possible.
All of these plans should allow us to avoid prolonged and widespread lockdowns .
Refuse to learn to live with covid-19 pretending that the old normal exists increase the risk of future quarantines.
We need to get past the denial and anger stages of grief and accept that the world is different now.
So we can take control and build a way of life that is designed to coexist with the virus in a way that that we allowa everyone, including the clinically vulnerable , lead a freer and healthier life.
Christina Pagel is Professor of Operations Research, Director of the Clinical Operations Research Unit at UCL
. This note originally appeared on The Conversation and is published here under a Creative Commons license.
Read the original article here.
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