After denying for months that he was planning an attack on Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a military operation in the neighboring country on Thursday and warned that Moscow’s response would be “immediate” if anyone tries to confront Russia.
Several cities and facilities in Ukraine were attacked and the president ePresident Volodymyr Zelenskybroke off diplomatic relations with Moscow.
Putin’s latest actions take place days after he terminated the Minsk peace agreement in eastern Ukraine, recognized the independence of Donetsk and Luhanks, two eastern regions controlled by pro-Russian rebels since 1991, and order the dispatch of troops there.
What happens after the beginning of the great Russian military operation in Ukrainian territory could endanger the entire security structure of Europe.
In these keys we explain what is behind it and what can happen now.
1. What is Putin looking for in Ukraine?
Russia has said that it is the “moment of truth” to reformulate its relationship with NATO (the alliance defense of the West that has increasingly gained ground in Eastern Europe) and has highlighted several demands.
First, he wants a legally binding promise that NATO will not expand more.
“It is absolutely mandatory for us to ensure that Ukraine never ever becomes a member of NATO,” Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said.
Putin has complained that Russia “has nowhere else to retreat to”. “Do you think we’ll sit idly by?” he launched.
In 1994, Russia signed an agreement in which he promised to respect the independence and sovereignty of Ukraine.
But last year, Putin wrote a long article in which he described the Russians and Ukrainians as “one nation” , and now he has said that modern Ukraine was created entirely by communist Russia.
He considers the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991 as the “disintegration of historical Russia”.
Putin has also argued that if Ukraine joins NATO, the alliance could try to recover Crimea, the strategic peninsula that Russia annexed in 1990.
Their other main demands are that NATO not deploy “attack weapons near Russia’s borders” and to eliminate the forces and military infrastructure of the member states that joined the alliance since 1994.
That means Central Europe, Eastern Europe and the Baltic countries.
Actually, Russia wants NATO to return to its pre-
In addition to alleged threats to his security and questioning Ukraine’s recognition as a sovereign nation, Putin accuses the Kiev government of being a US puppet.
Although saying rule out the occupation, it remains to be seen if Putin’s goal is to change the democratically elected government that runs the country.
In his speech on Thursday He also spoke of “demilitarizing” the neighboring country.
He also denounced an alleged “nazification” in the east against Russian-speakers, whom he wants to protect, he says. The rebel leaders asked Moscow to send troops, a step prior to the military offensive that took place hours later.
Putin he even mentions the word “genocide”, but there is no evidence to support that.
The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, defines such an accusation as “ridiculous”.
There is, however, a conflict in eastern Ukraine. The United Nations estimates that more than .000 people have died since April 2014, when the conflict began, among them more than 3.400 civilians. It is estimated that there have been up to 16.000 wounded.
two. What are the pro-Russian rebel areas and why are they key to the conflict
Until now, the so-called Donetsk People’s Republics and Luhansk have been led by Russian representatives.
According to the decree approved by Putin this Monday, in which these two regions were recognized as independent, the presence of Russian troops stationed there and the possibility of building military bases is also recognized for the first time.
3 keys that explain why Ukraine is so important for Russia
The two rebel areas had a special status within Ukraine under the Minsk peace accords, but the measures taken by Putin prevent that from happening.
What makes the situation more alarming is that the two small rebel states not only claim the limited territory they control, but also covet all the Donbas regionon, where they are located Donetsk and Lugansk.
“We recognized them, didn’t we? And this means that we recognized all its founding documents”, the Russian president pointed out.
Russia had already prepared the ground for war, with unfounded accusations that Ukraine had committed “genocide” in the east and delivered 400,000 passports in areas controlled by rebels, thus arguing that any action is aimed at protecting its own citizens.
3. Is there still room for a diplomatic solution to the crisis?
Putin’s decision this Thursday makes a possible diplomatic solution seem more and more distant.
After the Russian president’s announcement, his American counterpart, Joe Biden, accused him of choosing to carry out “a premeditated war that will entail a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering ”.
“Only Russia is responsible for the death and destruction that this attack will bring, and the United States and its allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive manner. The world will hold Russia accountable”, he stated.
Ukraine has developed its armed forces in recent years and Russia will face a hostile population. The army has called up all of its reservists from among 18 and 60 years.
The head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, said on Tuesday that the invasion opens a “horrible” scenario, since the conflict could spread to densely populated urban areas.
The Russian president has other options: maybe perhaps a no-fly zone or a blockade of Ukrainian ports, or transfer nuclear weapons to neighboring Belarus.
A de-escalation of the conflict seems remote.
4. What can the West do?
Before condemning the announcement of the “special military operation”, the West already said that the recognition of independence of the separatist regions was illegal.
The Secretary General of the UN, António Guterres, branded it as Violation of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine.
- 4 keys to understand the start of Russia’s military operation against Ukraine
But NATO allies have made it clear that there are no plans to send combat troops to the Ukraine itself. Instead, they have offered Ukraine advisers, weapons and field hospitals.
So the main answer will be to penalize Russia with sanctions:
Even greater sanctions are planned if necessary.
The United States is targeting Russia’s financial institutions and key industries; the EU is focusing on Russia’s access to financial markets and the UK has warned that “those in and around the Kremlin will have nowhere to hide”, with restrictions being placed on Russian companies to access the dollar and pound.
The last economic blow would be to disconnect Russia’s banking system from the Swift international payment system. But that could have a negative impact on the US and European economies.
Meanwhile, NATO has deployed 5.000 soldiers in the Baltic states and Poland. Other 4. could be sent to Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia.
USA. will send more troops to Germany.
5. What role does NATO have?
NATO is a Western defensive alliance born to counteract the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
Has an open door policy for new members and their 30 member states are convinced that it will not change.
The President of Ukraine called for a “feasible and clear time frame” to join NATO. But, as the German chancellor has made clear, there is no prospect of that happening in the long term.
In the eyes of President Putin, the West promised in 1990 that NATO does not would not expand “not an inch to the east”, but did so anyway.
However, that was before the collapse of the Soviet Union, so the promise made to then-Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev only referred to East Germany in the context of a reunified Germany.
Gorbachev later said that “the issue of NATO expansion was never discussed” at the time.
6. How dangerous is this invasion for Europe
It is a terrifying moment for the people of Ukraine and for the rest of the continent, which is witnessing how a great power invades a European neighbor for the first time since World War II.
Dozens of people have already died in which Germany defines as “Putin’s war”. For European leaders, this invasion recalls some of the worst moments since the years 40 the last century.
According to the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, it is a turning point in the history of Europe.
In a clear allusion to the Cold War, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, spoke of the creation of a new iron curtain between Russia and the West.
The invasion is already being felt in many countries that share a border with Russia and Ukraine.
Latvia, Poland and Moldova are already expecting a large influx of refugees. Lithuania and Moldova have declared a state of emergency after the arrival of thousands of women and children.
Nor is this a war for which the Russian population was prepared, which will also be affected by Western sanctions.
*This note was originally published on 10 February 2022 and updated after Putin’s decision to recognize the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luganks as independent statesientities.
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