MEXICO.- In the political discourse on the south side of the Rio Grande, the cooperation program between Mexico and the United States to combat insecurity Bicentennial Understanding “killed” the Mérida Initiative considering that it fueled more violence by prioritizing the frontal fight against organized crime.
In the analysis of civil organizations and security experts, the new agreement on which advances were presented in recent days is almost intangible because it lacks evaluation mechanisms, there is no action plan, it is not known what resources it will have, nor when it can begin to be implemented.
In addition, it has not yet been approved by either of the two congresses.
“It seems like a catalog of good intentions”, warned Francisco Rivas, director of the National Citizen Observatory.
Among these positive intentions, Roberto Zepeda, an academic from the North American Research Center of the National Autonomous University of Mexico, highlighted the inclusion of the topic of health and that “protect our people” be raised as the first point.
“This implies a paradigm shift, because what is sought is to promote a more focused security on people”.
On October 8, the governments of Mexico and the United States agreed on the Bicentennial Understanding as a new framework for collaboration in security matters and promised that in the following months they would design the plan for implementation during the second half of the six-year term of Andrés Manuel López Obrador and the rest of the Joe Biden’s mandate.
The announcement was taken with hope after various episodes of tension such as the threats of former US President Donald Trump to stop migration; the arrest of Salvador Cienfuegos, former Secretary of National Defense by US authorities in October 2020 and the reform that limited the activities of foreign agents in Mexican territory.
By January 35, both countries presented three goals, eleven areas of coordination, 26 joint objectives and 102 actions of cooperation.
For example, supervision and coordination in ports was promised land entry points along the border; increase oversight and coordination at air as well as sea ports of entry; increase the supervision and coordination of electronic commerce (eCommerce).
Increase the Exchange of Bilateral Information on Firearms Trafficking; dismantle the production of narcotic drugs and reduce the capacity for sale and distribution, as well as strengthen the law to combat trafficking in synthetic drugs and precursors.
The list of priorities is similar to other frameworks and prior agreements in the bilateral relationship.
For the analyst Stephan Brewer, from the civil organization WOLA, which monitors human rights in the Americas, the most important thing about this new agreement “is not the symbolic or diplomatic weight of the meeting, but the potential impact of the new agreement on security and health conditions at this critical moment.” .
In Mexico, he highlights, the last three years have seen record levels of homicidal violence, with more than 36,000 deaths, coupled with a crisis of more than 95,000 missing and unaccounted for persons, most of them during the last seven years.
In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate that more than 10, 000 died of an overdose between May 2020 and April 2021; Mexico also faces problematic drug use and drug overdoses.
Challenges
Both for WOLA and for the Mexican analysts one of the feet for which the Bicentennial Understanding is the lack of measurement mechanisms.
In 2018, when the president still did not announce its security policies, the organization México Evalúa put in numerical terms what a reduction in violence would mean, which in that year would close with 35, 000 intentional homicides.
“How many municipalities would we have to attend to reach the objective? If all the municipalities are ordered by the number of homicides they contribute to the total for 2018, we would have to have a reduction of 30 % of homicides in 60 municipalities for in three years to reach a decrease of 15.4% and just to get closer to the 25% would be necessary”, researcher David Ramírez-de-Garay specified at the time
The proposal was not officially supported at the federal, state or municipal level and murders have continued to rise to date.
WOLA underlined through analyst Brewer the importance that in all areas of the Bicentennial Understanding, clear indicators are established to measure results, recalling that the US Government Accountability Office identified deficiencies in monitoring the impact of the Merida Initiative with reference to its goals, objectives and risks.
According to Brewer, a source from the Mexican Foreign Ministry stated that with the new agreement there would be no human rights verifications from the Capitol, they would not receive military equipment or direct support from the Pentagon and there would be no more the license to spy and act freely within Mexico for US federal agencies
“These last statements generated confusion, since the US regulations that seek to prevent the United States from providing assistance to security forces implicated in human rights violations, known as the Leahy Law, cannot be repealed through a bilateral agreement between two executive powers,” he said.
Comparing the texts announcing the Bicentennial Understanding with the four pillars of the Mérida Initiative, analysts appreciate various areas of continuity, although with adjustments and evolutions and limited specific areas of common agreement and priority between the two governments.
“Notwithstanding the foregoing, it would be a mistake for all parties not to take advantage of this moment to promote and demand that the new agreement translates into real progress for the population”, details WOLA in its analysis.
Therefore, it urged to achieve a model of public health in drug matters, fully overcoming the failed paradigm of a “ war on drugs, the decriminalization of drug use and the creation of regulated markets as well as transforming the environment of impunity in Mexico that currently fosters violence in its various forms.
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