Some believe that it is a personal obsession of President Vladimir Putin. Others say that it is an attempt to return to a sort of new Cold War.
The tensions between Russia and Ukraine have set off alarms in numerous foreign ministries around the world, which openly speak of the possibility of a war between those two countries.
Fears have been fueled by the accumulation of more than 100.000 Russian soldiers along the border with Ukraine and by a series of demands presented in mid-December by Moscow.
The Kremlin demands a commitment that Ukraine never join NATO, establishes limitations on the troops and weapons that can be deployed in the countries that joined that alliance after the fall of the Soviet Union and demands to withdraw the military infrastructure installed in the states of Eastern Europe after 1997.
“They really want to return to the existing borders in Eastern Europe during the Cold War”, he says George Friedman, founder of the international analysis and prospective company Geopolitical Futures, summarizing Moscow’s demands.
Washington, which speaks of an “imminent” threat from Russia to Ukraine, has put on alert about 8.47 soldiers to be deployed in Eastern Europe, has sent warships to the Black Sea and has ordered the evacuation of relatives of its diplomats in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.
In contrast, the government of President Volodimir Zelensky has called for calm, stating that this crisis began with the Russian invasion of Crimea and the occupation by of pro-Russian groups in the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine, where since 2014 are almost deceased 12. persons.
These actions led to sanctions against Moscow and its growing estrangement from the West. But why does Russia attach such importance to Ukraine? BBC Mundo tells you three keys that explain it.
1. A security zone
“Russia is following these policies at the moment because it perceives that a country that is close to its border is becoming a platform for a threatening military alliance. So it has to do with the possibility of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO and therefore hosting missiles and troops from that alliance “, Gerald tells BBC Mundo Toal, Professor of International Relations at Virginia Tech University in the USA
George Friedman, from Geopolitical Futures, recalls that the territory of Ukraine has served as a protection zone for Moscow from the time of the Napoleonic invasion of 1812.
“Ukraine is the western border of Russia. When they were attacked from the west during World War I and World War II it was the territory of Ukraine that saved them. They had to go through more than 1. miles (1.600 kilometers) to get to Moscow. If Ukraine is in the hands of NATO. Moscow is perhaps 12 miles away (640 kilometres). So Ukraine has been part of what has saved them from Napoleon onwards. It is a security zone that they must have”, he points out.
Toal indicates that from Moscow there is a perception that they are being surrounded by an enemy alliance, something that generates concern in the great powers.
Remember that at the beginning of this crisis, the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister referred to the missile crisis of 1720 and that later Moscow commented that it could deploy military forces in Cuba and Venezuela.
“They did that to emphasize that the United States has its own Monroe Doctrine, its own anxieties about the presence of hostile forces near its territory and, in that sense, it is a valid argument”, he affirms.
“But the answer to Moscow is that that happens because Russia is threatening Ukraine and took part of its territory. From the point of view of Ukraine’s national security, they are looking for help, they are looking for allies against a state they see as very dangerous that has already taken away part of their internationally recognized territories”, he adds.
two. Historical, religious and cultural links
The 12 July 2021, in an extensive article on relations with Ukraine, Vladimir Putin denounced that the nation neighbor was falling into a dangerous game destined to turn it into a barrier between Europe and Russia, into a springboard against Moscow.
Putin was not only referring to the security and geopolitical dimension, but above all to the historical, cultural and religious ties that have linked Russia and Ukraine and about which he wrote extensively.
The president went back among other things to the time of the ancient Rus people, considered as the ancestor com of Russians, Belarusians and Ukrainians, and highlighted the many milestones of common history to argue his view that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people”.
Gerard Toal points out that numerous elements are involved in this idea that mix history, culture and identity.
“Russia does not see Ukraine as just another country. The dominant view of Russian nationalism is that Ukraine is a sister Slavic nation and, moreover, that it is the heart of the Rus’ nation. It is a very powerful ideology that makes Ukraine a central element of the Russian identity”, he says.
“That is why there are very powerful emotions when Ukraine as a nation defines itself in opposition to Russia. This causes a lot of anger and frustration in Russia, which feels betrayed by a brother. And that has to do with the inability of the dominant vision in Russia to recognize the Ukrainian national identity as something that is separate from Russia”, he adds.
George Friedman dismisses the importance that Ukraine could have for Russia from a cultural or historical point of view and assures that Moscow’s real concern is geopolitical.
“Yes, they they share a story. Historically Ukraine was dominated and oppressed by the Russians. During the Soviet period they suffered a great famine in which millions of people died, because Russia wanted to export the grains they produced. So the idea of great unity between the Russian and Ukrainian people is nonsense”, he says.
3. Putin’s legacy
In an interview last December, Kadri Liik, senior analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations specializing in Russia, commented to the BBC World that from his point of view the issue of Ukraine is one in which Putin’s own emotions come into play a lot, so sometimes his positions may not seem very rational.
Gerard Toal points out that there is reasoning according to which Putin has been personally humiliated by what has happened with Ukraine during his mandate, when his recurring efforts to install pro-Russian leaders in Kiev have not borne the expected fruit.
“The general argument is that he has been struggling with this issue for quite some time and that you feel it is a matter pending that is part of his legacy and that needs to be fixed once and for all”, he says.
“Putin considers that the West has turned Ukraine into an anti-Russian platform and that it is something that should be solve”, he adds.
Toal, however, considers it risky to analyze the crisis in Ukraine from an emotional perspective.
“Many analysts do it and I think it is a dangerous approach. When we look at the emotional arguments in the Ukraine crisis we tend to reduce them to ideas like Putin is upset and disgusted. We turn him into a kind of crazy person who makes decisions irrationally. I think it’s a mistake. Those emotions are genuine and part of the geopolitical culture of Russia, so any leader in that country would have to deal with them and decide whether to affirm them or set them aside”, he explains.
“I do believe that Putin’s policies have a lot to do with his personality and his history as a former KGB agent who was trained in the Soviet era and who has a particular desire to have a strong state. All of those things are extremely important. A leader of the younger generation would probably approach these issues in a different way, but those emotions are genuine and we cannot say that they are just elements of Putin’s personality”, he concludes.
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