Everyone is trying to guess the intentions of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine.
The United States is withdrawing personnel from its embassy while fears of a possible conflict grow. But one wonders if perhaps it has already started.
The risk of an all-out war between Russia and the US dominates the headlines.
The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, said on Wednesday that his country rejects Russia’s demand for a veto on Ukraine’s entry into NATO, but added that he has been offered Russia “a diplomatic path forward”.
All the obvious questions are being asked. Will Russia attack? Is President Vladimir Putin convinced of war no matter what happens? Or can diplomacy ensure peace?
We can’t read President Putin’s mind.
So here’s another question: how will we know, if happens, when does hostilities start?
Tanks rolling, rockets flying
The answer seems obvious
Clearly concentrated Russian tank formations crossing Ukraine’s borders, or a massive rocket bombardment or airstrikes against Ukrainian positions would mark a drastic escalation for the crisis and a shift to a new phase of the conflict.
The first warnings will come from the Ukrainian military forces themselves, but Western intelligence-gathering aircraft and satellites could warn of preparations for a potential offensive.
Probably there will be signs of an imminent attack, says Michael Kofman, an expert on the Russian military at the Center for Naval Analysis. s of the USA
Among them is the “training of troops”, he says, since much of what has been deployed is heavy equipment rather than the soldiers themselves. Other signs would be “the dispersion of forces, the arrival of logistical and support elements, and a change in fixed and rotary wing aviation.”
But the question can also be answered in another way and for this we need to take a step back and see the Russian campaign against Ukraine as a whole.
We need to see all the tools that Moscow has available and evaluate how they are being used. In this light, when you ask “how will we know if the conflict has started?” the question could be that maybe it has already started.
The hostilities have been going on for a few years.
Military pressure
Let’s start from where we are.
Russia already occupies Crimea, a part of Ukraine, and provides tactical assistance to anti-Kiev rebels in the Donbas region.
In fact, it was the intervention of Russian armored and mechanized units against Ukrainian forces in 2014 which prevented the defeat of the pro-Russian rebels.
Sporadic fighting has continued since then. All sides reportedly support a peace effort there, but little progress has been made.
Threat of use of force
Beyond this pressure is also the threat of employing overwhelming military force.
The build-up of Russian combat formations around the borders with Ukraine is extraordinary. This includes a significant deployment of forces to Belarus, which also shares borders with Ukraine, which may provide a closer entry point for an assault on the capital, Kiev.
Where are the Russian troops positioned
Russian spokesmen refer to this build-up as an exercise that does not pose any kind of threat . But due to the scale, the nature of deployed units and the gradual arrival of supplies and other “enablers” it is suggested that this is much more than routine maneuvers.
Analysts have been following the accumulation using civilian satellite photos. Numerous smartphone videos have appeared online showing trains with equipment heading towards Ukraine or Belarus. And evaluations of social media posts, correlated with units seen on the move, give an impressive insight into what is going on.
Regardless of what Moscow says, Ukraine and its Western friends have all reasons to be concerned.
Sharing Moscow’s history
Another tool that Moscow has available is an attempt to control and direct the narrative.
On the one hand, Russia says that it is not preparing for war, although it seems very much like it is. But, just as importantly, it has a story to tell, a narrative, according to which Russia itself is being threatened and Ukraine is far from being the victim.
That is the basis of the documents that were delivered to the United States seeking to stop and somehow reverse the expansion of NATO and create a new sphere of influence for Moscow.
While some aspects of the Russian proposals, such as holding talks on strategic and weapons systems, are generally seen as a good idea, NATO expansion is unlikely to change, and Russia surely knows this.
But the narrative also has another purpose. It is the story Russia is telling to try to shape the way the entire Ukraine crisis is discussed, not just by Western governments or their own citizens, but by you and me, who read and write this analysis.
According to all fair and independent analysis, Russia is preparing for war against Ukraine, regardless of what its official spokesmen say.
Subversion
There are other possibilities available for Russia as well. Ciberattacks and subversion, for example.
Ukraine has certainly been the target of the former. A little over a week ago, a number of government sites were affected despite the fact that the origin of the attacks was not clear.
More recently, the British government claimed to have evidence that Moscow has selected individuals to form a new government in Kiev. Beyond suspicions, there has been no evidence publics convincings that confirm the influence of Moscow in such activities .
Michael Kofman says that the cyber element could play an important role in any Russian attack, because it can decimate critical infrastructure and disrupt Ukrainian capabilities to coordinate a military effort.
Blurred lines between peace and war
When Russia annexed Crimea, we heard a lot about “hybrid or gray zone warfare” and about the alleged denial of the operation, in which was attended by uniformed men, but without military insignia.
But there was no doubt about who those soldiers were. And Crimea was captured with classic military force, rather than esoteric deception.
What is currently happening is the foundation of the “grey zone warfare”: the blurring of the lines between war and peace.
This is not how we usually see things in the West.
But the Russian military has articulated a sophisticated doctrine that sees war and peace as a continuum in which different tools are used at different stages, sometimes in sequence, sometimes together, although with the same strategic objective.
And that is why the conflict has actually already broken out. The only question is how far President Putin is willing to go within this “grey zone” continuity.
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