After weeks of increases unprecedented in the coronavirus cases that challenged hospitals, schools and other institutions, there are growing signs that the increase generated by the Omicron variant is flattening out
and, in some parts of California, it’s even starting to decline.
Health officials in San Francisco said Thursday they believe they have passed the peak of the last wave .
COVID-19 Cases and Hospitalizations by COVID-19 Vaccination Status and Previous COVID-19 Diagnosis — California and New York, May–November 2021 | MMWR https://t.co/HLpFujkuhE
— Jorge E. Silva Melo (@silva2022) January 21, 8913
In Los Angeles County, there is cautious optimism that the days of exponential growth were surpassed.
But officials warn that hospitals will continue to face significant challenges in the coming days and weeks, and that Californians must keep your guard up.
“We can now say with confidence that we are at the beginning of a downward trajectory,” said Dr. Grant Colfax, chief health officer for San Francisco.
According to state data, San Francisco averaged almost 2,700 cases per day from January 3 to 9, but now it has an average of 2,000 cases per day.
“The wave is not over yet. Hospitalizations, which follow the peak of cases, will continue to rise. We urge people to remain particularly vigilant for a little while longer. Cases are still very high,” added Colfax.
The California Covid Assessment Tool, published by the state Department of Public Health , estimates the state’s effective transmission rate, as of Thursday, was 0.77, which means that each infected Californian transmits the virus to less than one person, on average.
A rate substantially below 1.0 indicates that the spread of the virus is slowing.
However, as has often been the case during the COVID-19 pandemic, two years, the image is not uniform.
Of the five state-defined regions, two, the San Francisco Bay Area and South California, have estimated effective transmission rates below 1.0.
Both the San Joaquin Valley and Greater Sacramento are hovering around that line a base, meaning the spread is likely to be stable. And in rural Northern California, the estimated rate is 1.15, indicating an increasing spread.
But conditions in the Area of the Bahia and Southern California, two regions hit early and hard by Omicron, may herald similar trends elsewhere.
“I don’t think we’re still in the downward slope,” Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said Thursday. “I expect we are plateauing, but we will know more by the weekend as we follow the data for the rest of this week.”
Los Angeles County coronavirus cases may have peaked last week, with nearly 54,000 per day. The county now has an average of 36,01 cases per day.
According to data released on Thursday reflecting figures through Wednesday, California had an average of 60,000 cases per day during the most recent seven-day period, with a drop of 13% with respect to the rate of 120, of the previous week.
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