From the number of undocumented immigrants that could be benefited with a ‘green card’ after being protected with the ‘parole ‘ plan, the fiscal impact of the social aid to receive and the confusion that the bill approved in the House would be for more than 10 years than establishes the Reconciliation rule, are some of the challenges faced by senators to negotiate the immigration proposal.
With the analysis of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on the protection plan for undocumented or ‘parole’ those aspects emerged that could represent a challenge for the negotiation in the Senate with the parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough , acknowledged a source from the group of activists directly involved in the legislative process.
From the outset, the source – who cannot reveal his name so as not to hinder the negotiations – reveals that it should be clarified to the parliamentarian that the plan is 10 years, that is, the maximum 2031.
“Under the rules of Reconciliation and what the parliamentarian has explained We believe that we have a good opportunity, because it is in the Reconciliation rule of 10 years, It is not something permanent, it is temporary , it can be renewed for the total of 10 years ”, explained the source.
He added that legislators and experts who advise on the integration of the project were surprised by some data from the CBO, such as the number of immigrants who could obtain the ‘green card’ after being protected with the ‘parole’.
The budget office estimates that there would be up to three million people, but the source points out that the plan includes a projection from the Center for American Progress (CAP) that estimates about two million people.
“Yes, it is a problem that we have with CBO, because the CAP estimate was two million, because it takes into account when the children comply 21 years, but the CBO takes into account children (in general), not age ”, indicates the source.
It adds that if the parliamentarian MacDonough analyzes these data, she contemplates that more immigrants would obtain the path to citizenship and, therefore, social benefits.
“The CBO estimates that more immigrants will be legal … that may be a problem,” he acknowledged.
During the meetings with the budget office, adjustments have already been made to some data, so that the parliamentarian has the clearest information, added the source.
The rule of 10 years
The source insisted on the importance of following the Reconciliation rules, which mark maximum investments 10 years, therefore the immigration plan is limited.
Added that the estimate of just over $ 100, 000 millions of dollars would be applied during that period, although there is some flexibility, but for not very high amounts and unspecified.
“ We have flexibility with the number of 10 years, but it cannot be very big ”, he indicated. “Other considerations are taken, such as that those immigrants are going to get married, have children “.
The CBO report shows that the ‘parole’ plan could continue indefinitely, although that would depend on Congress, since it is not an executive order of the President’s Government Joe Biden , but confusion may be a problem with the MP.
“Yes, it will be a problem for her, but I think it can be fixed right now,” he said. “Although the process is for 10 years, the CBO thinks it will continue and they want take that into account ”.
Indicates that the projection of the budget office is the fiscal impact when more people obtain citizenship , an amount that was very high when the first plan was presented.
“We have had the opportunity to speak with CBO and give them more information, but when these numbers came out we did not know what they were based on,” acknowledged the source.
More than 7 million immigrants?
At the express question of this journalist, the source acknowledged that there was a disparity in the numbers that the CBO exposed about that 6.5 million immigrants would benefit , when civil organizations and legislators consider between 7.1 and 7.8 million.
“The CBO sometimes takes data that we do not think are very accurate, too I want to point out that I don’t know if the 7 million would apply for the ‘parole’ ”, clarified the source.
He noted that when the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) was planned there were an estimated 1.2 million beneficiaries, but only a few 100, 000 .
“There are always fewer who apply, perhaps because they do not know, they do not have resources, they do not have enough education about who applies for the program,” he acknowledged.
In addition to the majority leader Chuck Schumer (New York), those directly involved in the negotiations are Senator Dick Durbin (Illinois), Chairman of the Judiciary Committee; Bob Menendez (New Jersey), Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee; Alex Padilla (California); Chairman of the Immigration Subcommittee, as well as Catherine Cortez Masto (Nevada).
There is still no date for the meeting with the parliamentarian, but There have been informal discussions about the plan, congressional sources said.
New rules?
Other experts have indicated that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) should create new rules for the protection program for undocumented persons , but the source affirms that it does not It is a complicated matter, as the existing ‘parole’ guidelines will be taken into account.
“The requirements of that ‘parole’ program are the same as those under ‘parole ‘in other cases, like what they have to asylum, ”he said. “What it does is create a new opening of ‘parole’ for the undocumented.”
Regarding the operation, the source announced that the Office of Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) would receive additional funds to operate, but the process is in operation.
“ It wouldn’t be a new staff, that’s what USCIS does , there are thousands of Afghan nationals who have parole right now. The agency already exists to do that ”, he stated. “We have additional funds so you can approve up to 7 million in six months or a year.”