The ruling Frente de Todos (FDT) arrives at the mid-term parliamentary elections this Sunday in Argentina with a not very auspicious precedent: the categorical defeat it suffered in the primaries two months ago.
The so-called Compulsory Simultaneous Open Primary Elections -or PASO-, which were held on 12 of September In the past, they are mandatory in this country, and in practice they work as a great “opinion poll”, which left very badly a to the coalition of President Alberto Fernández.
The FDT, which groups together different aspects of Peronism -the force that has dominated Argentine politics since the return of democracy in the years 80 – suffered a sharp and unexpected defeat at the hands of Juntos por el Cambios (JxC) , the center-right coalition to which there was after laced from power just two years before.
That alliance headed by former president Mauricio Macri -who does not compete in these elections and took a back seat during the campaign- obtained the 41% from the votes in the primaries, 9% more than the FDT.
Thus, he reversed his defeat of the presidential election of 2019, which lost by a difference of 8 points.
On the other hand, the ruling party, which came then to power with the 48% of the votes, in the STEP took the 32% .
If those figures were repeated this Sunday -the most likely scenario anticipated by the analysts with whom BBC Mundo spoke- not only would it reflect a strong drain on the government’s political wealth.
It would also leave the ruling party without the control of Congress.
“Today the FDT has a majority and its own quorum in the Senate, chaired by Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner,” he explains the political scientist Facundo Nejamkis, director of the consulting firm Opina Argentina.
“In the Chamber of Deputies it is the first minority, with allies that allow you to build a quorum. ”
That relationship of forces could change drastically later of these elections, in which a third of the seats in the the Upper House and almost half of the Lower House.
If the results of the PASO were repeated, JxC would take away its parliamentary supremacy from Peronism, becoming the first minority in Deputies and leaving it without its own quorum in the Senate.
This, says Nejamkis, would force the ruling party to have to build alliances in order to govern.
“ The conditions of governance would be much more fragile ,” he points out.
In search of votes
The government bet to avoid this scenario.
After the defeat in September, which surprised everyone by its magnitude (the ruling party lost almost 16 points compared to 2019), Fernández acknowledged that there was an “unsatisfied demand” in the population.
“Obviously there are errors that we have committed “, he said when the results were known. “We will learn from them,” he said.
Most of the measures implemented by the government to reverse this electoral setback focused on improving the pockets of Argentines.
Surveys show that the main concern of people is the economy, which was already two years old recession and inflation exceeding 50% when the pandemic arrived and the strong restrictions ordered by Fernández, which together caused an economic contraction of the 10%.
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After the defeat in the primaries, the government increased the minimum wage, social assistance and credits, and reduced taxes on wages for people with middle and upper middle incomes.
It also increased state intervention for try to contain inflation, freezing the price of 1. 400 mass consumer products and drugs until January 2022.
The government’s objective, observers point out, is not only to recover the votes lost in the PASO, but to try to attract the large number of voters who did not participate in those elections and could do so this Sunday.
The political analyst Juan Germano, director of Isonomía Consultores, told the BBC World that in the primaries voted close to 10% less than the “historical average” of participation, which round the 112%.
To that is added another 9% of the electorate that in the primaries voted for parties that failed to exceed the floor of 1.5% of the votes necessary to compete in the legislative elections.
It is that fifth of the electorate which opens questions about what will happen this Sunday and leaves open the possibility quality of a surprise result, which moves away from September.
The internal crisis
Germano points out that even a slight improvement in the FDT with respect to the primaries would have “a strong symbolic value”.
One of the main hopes of the ruling party is to improve its performance in the province of Buenos Aires, where it votes close to 40% of electorate national.
Despite being considered the main Peronist stronghold -In the presidential elections the ruling party prevailed there with the 58% of the votes- in the primaries he obtained only the 35%, almost 5 points less than Juntos por el Cambio.
“If the government manages to improve, even a little, would be a symbol that the post-STEP strategy – monetary issuance, freezing rates, freezing prices – had a certain income “, says the political scientist.
However, he clarifies,” if even with all that it did not work, the bankruptcy may be greater “.
The” break “referred to is the one that was in evidence within the ruling coalition after the defeat in the primaries.
The adverse result caused a very public dispute between the president and the vice president , who exchanged criticism through social networks, leading Argentines to speculate on a possible breakdown of the government coalition.
The political crisis ended after a few days with a change from gabi net , something that Cristina Kirchner had openly demanded, generally considered the majority partner in the presidential duo.
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And it is that, Although the president is Alberto Fernández, it was the vice president who chose him to compete together in 2019 , a decision that caused a lot of surprise at the time, due to the animosity between both since he resigned as her chief of staff in 2008.
According to Germano, Kirchner’s decision to give a step to the side and form a Peronist alliance with Fernández and another former chief of Cabinet with whom he ended up confronted, Sergio Massa, was “ very effective from the electoral point of view, but very ineffective to govern “.
” The government does not have a direction , many of the internal discussions were too public, and that takes away your credibility, “he says. .
“At a time when you required tranquility and have a north, because you came from a bad economic experience and you A pandemic came on top, with all the uncertainty that this generated, the government did not manage to give that tranquility, “he says.
What many are now wondering is whether the rivalries -or” internal “- they were magnified after the September defeat, they could subtract votes from the ruling party.
And if a new adverse result could further deepen the differences, weakening Fernández and further complicating the governance in the second half of his term.
The resurgence of macrismo
Like the government, Together for Change is also excited about attracting new voters this Sunday, to maintain or even increase the electoral advantage that it obtained two months ago. an inflationary and debt crisis, and with a peso that lost more than 500% of its value against the dollar.
However, Nejamkis points out that part of the success that macrismo had in the primaries was due to the fact that it achieved detach from the former president.
“Together they managed to displace the most controversial figure of that government experience, which is Mauricio Macri, and renew the cast of its electoral figures ”, he tells BBC Mundo.
“That allowed him to remove the effect of the cost of the malaise that the Macri government generated in a large part of the population.”
Germano agrees that the renewal of JxC was cl ave to explain his surprise resurgence in the PASO, but he considers that that vote reflected more “ a punishment for the government than a prize” for the macrismo .
However, a comfortable victory for the main opposition coalition would not only give it greater power in Congress for the next two years.
It would also strengthen the aspirations of Macri’s dolphin, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta , current mayor of the city of Buenos Aires, who is emerging as the main opposition presidential candidate in the elections of 2023.
Outside of the so-called “crack” -macrism / Kirchnerism-, these legislative elections could also mark the political consolidation of other minority forces that have gained ground among Argentines who are dissatisfied with traditional political parties.
Among these stand out the “libertarians” , led by the economists Javier Milei and José Luis Espert , who have managed to attract above all the young vote with their ultra-liberal and anti-system proposals, and who will also seek to use a favorable result this Sunday as a springboard for their presidential aspirations.
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