The UN warns that the promises of the nations are insufficient to combat global warming

October 26, 2021

Photo: PHILIPPE DESMAZES / Getty Images

By: EFE 26 October 2021

The commitments of the countries are insufficient to curb the emission of greenhouse gases responsible for global warming, which could increase up to 2.7 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era during this century – above the target of 1.5 degrees-, as the UN warned today.

The UN Environment Program (UNEP) today presented the twelfth edition of the “Emissions Gap Report”, corresponding to 2021.

According to the report, to achieve the goal of 1.5 degrees there should be an additional reduction in annual emissions into the atmosphere above current commitments.

Thus, UNEP, based in Nairobi, advocates a decline over the next eight years of at least 28 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (measure whose acronym in English is GtCO2e and which serves to quantify the mass of greenhouse gases based on

However, at the current rate, global emissions of all greenhouse gases are expected to reach close to from 60 GtCO2e only in 2021, even though COVID – 19 caused a crash of 5.4% of carbon dioxide emissions in 2020.

“ To have a chance to limit heating climate to 1.5 degrees, we have eight years to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by almost half (…). The clock is ticking out loud, “said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen in a statement.

This report compares actual reductions of the emissions that are needed to stop global warming, an objective set in the Paris Agreement, which seeks to limit the temperature increase to a level below 2 degrees and, ideally, to 1.5 during this century.

Limited sizes

According to UNEP, the changes proposed by the States in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC in English) -which include the emissions expected by each country and the measures of mitigation to apply- they are not enough.

“ The combined impact of new or updated NDCs is limited , ”the report notes, as it is estimated that for 2030 would mean an additional global emission reduction of just 2.9 GtCO2e compared to previous NDCs.

In this sense, the new NDCs added to other commitments assumed by countries represent only an additional 7.5% reduction in annual global greenhouse gas emissions forecast for 2030.

Those figures, underlines the document, fall short to comply with the Paris Agreement, as it would be necessary a reduction of at least a 30% of emissions to achieve the goal of not exceeding 2 degrees and a reduction of 55% in the case of 1.5 degrees.

All in all, UNEP estimates that the new policies announced by the countries reduce expected emissions in 2030 until 55 GtCO2e, that is, 4 GtCO2e less than estimated in last year’s emissions gap report.

More promises

Globally, 49 countries and the European Union (EU) as a block have set a goal of reaching a carbon neutral status (that their net CO2 emissions are zero).

To reach the goal of an increase in the Earth’s temperature that does not exceed 1.5 degrees, CO2 emissions should reach “zero” in 2050, and those of the rest of greenhouse gases, between 15 and 20 years later.

E These commitments could make “a big difference,” the report says, as those 49 countries account for more than half of national greenhouse gas emissions, more than half of global gross domestic product (GDP) and a third of the world’s population.

If these policies were implemented, they could reduce global warming by an additional 0.5 degrees – from 2.7 to 2.2 degrees – but “current plans are vague and are not reflected in the NDC. ”

“ Nations need to make their pledges of net zero emissions more concrete, ensuring that these commitments are included in the NDCs and actions move forward, “said Andersen.

” It is also It is essential to provide financial and technological support to developing nations so that they can adapt to the impacts of climate change ”, added the CEO.

Faced with these setbacks, Inger Andersen recalled that “climate change is no longer a problem of the future, but a problem of now “.

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