The world has a limited time to act if it wants to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
The covid pandemic- 19 was the big problem of 2021, certainly, but I hope that by the end of 2021, vaccines have been activated and let’s talk more about the weather than about the coronavirus.
This year that begins will be decisive to face climate change.
According to Antonio Guterres, Secretary General of the UN, we are in a “Breaking point” for the weather.
In the optimistic spirit of the New Year, here are five reasons why I think 2030 could confuse fatalists and see a breakthrough in global ambition on climate.
1. The crucial climate conference
In November 2021, world leaders will gather in Glasgow, Scotland, to work in the successor of the historical A Paris chord of 2015 .
Paris was important because it was the first time practically every nation in the world came together to agree that they all needed to help tackle climate change.
The problem was that the commitments made by countries to reduce carbon emissions back then did not reach the objectives established by the conference.
In Paris, the world agreed that by the end of the century the increase in global temperature would not be above 2 ° C with respect to pre-industrial levels. The goal was to limit the rise to 1.5 ° C, if possible.
The reality is that we are not making progress in that sense.
According to current plans , the world is expected to exceed the 1.5 ° C limit in 14 years or less, and reach 3 ° C of warming by the end of the century.
Under the Paris agreement, countries promised to meet again every five years and increase their carbon reduction targets .
That was supposed to happen in Glasgow in November 2019, but due to the pandemic it was postponed for this year.
Thus, Glasgow 2020 may be an encounter in which cuts to carbon emissions are increased.
2. Huge emission reductions
The biggest announcement on climate change last year came completely out of nowhere.
At the UN General Assembly in September, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that his country was aiming to become carbon neutral for 2050.
Environmentalists were stunned.
Reducing carbon has always been seen as a costly task, but here was the most polluting nation in the world , closely responsible of the 28% of global emissions, committing to cut its emissions unconditionally, regardless of whether other countries will follow suit.
That was a total change from previous negotiations, when everyone was afraid to assume the cost of decarbonizing their own economy, while others did nothing, but enjoyed themselves at the expense of those who had done the homework.
China is not the only one to have this initiative.
In 2020, the United Kingdom was the first of the world’s major economies to make a legal commitment of zero net emissions.
The European Union did the same in March 2020.
Since then, Japan and South Korea have joined which, according to UN estimates, are already more than 110 countries that have set a target of net zero by mid-century.
According to the UN, net zero means that we are not adding new emissions to the atmosphere. Emissions will continue, but will balance by absorbing an equivalent amount from the atmosphere.
Countries that have set a goal of reaching net zero represent more than 70% of global emissions, and more than 73% of the world economy, says the UN.
With the election of Joe Biden in the United States, the world’s largest economy has now rejoined the carbon reduction chorus.
These countries now need to detail how they plan to achieve their new aspirations, which will be a key part of the Glasgow agenda, but the fact that they are already saying they want to get there is a very significant change.
3. The fall in the cost of renewable energies
There is a good reason why so many countries now say they plan to have net zero emissions: the fall in the cost of renewables is completely changing the calculus of decarbonization.
In October 2021, the International Energy Agency, an intergovernmental organization, concluded that the best solar energy schemes they now offer “the cheapest source of electricity ever.”
When it comes to building new power plants, renewables are often already cheaper than fossil fuel-generated power in big part of the world.
If countries increase their investments in wind, solar and battery power in the coming years, prices are likely to fall further, to a point where it will become profitable to shut down and replace coal and gas power plants.
This is because the cost of renewable energy follows the logic of the entire industry: the more you produce, the cheaper it becomes , and the cheaper it gets, the more you produce.
This means that activists will not have to pressure investors to do the right thing.
For their part, governments know that by increasing renewable energies in their own economies, they help accelerate the energy transition worldwide, by making renewables even cheaper and more competitive everywhere.
4. The pandemic changes everything
The coronavirus pandemic has shaken our sense of being invulnerable and reminded us that our world may be turned upside down in ways that we can’t control.
It has also caused the most significant economic shock since the Great Depression.
In response, governments are stepping forward with stimulus packages designed to reactivate their economies.
And the good news is that it has rarely, if ever, been cheaper for governments to make these kinds of investments. All over the world, interest rates are around zero or even negative.
This creates an unprecedented opportunity to make things better this time.
The European Union and Joe Biden’s new government in the US have pledged billions of dollars in green investments to launch their economies and start the decarbonisation process.
Both say they hope that other countries will join them, helping to reduce the cost of renewable energy globally. But they also warn that, along with this carrot, they plan to brandish a club: a tax on imports from countries that emit too much carbon.
The The idea is that this may help the carbon-reduction laggards, such as Brazil, Russia, Australia and Saudi Arabia, dare to cut emissions.
The bad news is that, according to UN, developed countries are spending a 65% more in related sectors to fossil fuels than to low carbon energies.
5. Business is also turning green
The falling cost of renewables and increasing public pressure to act on the climate are also transforming attitudes in business.
There are strong economic reasons for this. Why invest in new oil wells or coal power plants that will become obsolete before they can pay for themselves over their 28 or 34 years of life?
In fact, why have in their wallets risks associated with carbon?
The logic is already developing in the markets. This year alone, the soaring share price of Tesla has made it the world’s most valuable auto company.
Meanwhile, the share price of Exxon , which became the most valuable company in the world, fell so much that it was ejected from the Dow Jones Industrial Average of major US corporations.
At the same time, there is a growing drive to get companies to incorporate climate risk into their financial decision-making.
The aim is to make it mandatory for companies and investors to demonstrate that their activities and investments are taking the necessary steps to transition to a world of zero Net issuance.
Seventy central banks are already working to make this happen, and integrating these requirements into the global financial architecture will be a key focus for the Glasgow conference.
Everything is still up for grabs.
So there are good reasons p hope, but it’s far from a done deal.
To have a reasonable chance of reaching the 1.5 ° C target, we must reduce to half total emissions by the end of 2030 , according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN-backed body that collects the science needed to inform policy.
This would imply achieving each year the reduction of emissions that occurred in 2020 thanks to the massive confinements due to the pandemic.
Emissions, however, are already returning to the levels they had at 2019.
The truth is that many countries have expressed ambitions to reduce carbon, but few have implemented strategies to achieve those goals.
The challenge for Glasgow will be to get the nations of the world adhere to policies that will begin to reduce emissions now.
The UN says it wants to see coal removed entirely, the end all fossil fuel subsidies and a global coalition to reach net zero by 2050.
That goes on still a very difficult task, even if global sentiments about facing global warming are beginning to change.
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