The Chilean political scene will be put to the test again this Sunday, when thousands of voters go to the polls to elect their regional governors in the second round.
At first, it may seem like a choice of local interest. But the truth is that the contest is closely observed by analysts and experts since its results can strongly influence the political future of the South American country.
In the last elections – of constituents, governors (first round ), mayors and councilors—, held in mid-May, independent applicants from outside the traditional parties prevailed with a margin against the right and center-left blocs that have governed Chile in recent years years.
The result —read by experts as a “punishment” to establishment – caused a huge surprise and defied all predictions up to that point.
For many, the nation led by Sebastián Piñera “changed ”And, according to analysts, much of this phenomenon is explained thanks to what is known as the “ social outbreak ” which started in October 2019.
In this context, Sunday’s vote takes on special relevance, as it will show whether this change in the political preferences of Chileans is maintained or not.
And this is even more important if It is considered that there are only five months until the presidential election, scheduled for 21 November.
One of the regions that generates the greatest expectation is the Metropolitan (which includes the capital, Santiago), where a candidate from centroi competes left and with vast experience in positions of power, Claudio Orrego , against the candidate supported by Communist Party (PC) and by the Frente Amplio (FA) —a left-wing coalition that erupted a couple of years ago and has challenged the hegemony of traditional pacts -, Karina Oliva.
This contest is called the “ b atalla de Santiago ”.
Will the independents and the new leaders triumph over the representatives of traditional parties? Will the preference for candidates from a more radical left continue to grow to the detriment of the center?
These are some of the questions facing the suffrage this weekend in Chile.
Governors-elect
This It is the first time that governors are directly elected by citizens, which poses a historical change in the country’s political structure.
Previously, there was the figure of “mayor” , who was appointed by the president on duty.
Now, the new leader regional – who will take over on 14 of July and will stay on for four years – will become an important counterweight for the president by having popular representation, and will have key attributions for decision-making nes in the area it represents.
“The importance of this choice is the democratization of regional governments, not only from the citizen’s point of view, but also from the political system itself, because a new actor is incorporated that will undoubtedly be a counterweight to the central government ”, explains the political scientist of the University from Santiago, Pamela Figueroa.
For this reason, for the presidential candidates it is very important who is elected.
In addition, the elections prior to the presidential elections have historically been a kind of “thermometer” to measure political preferences of Chileans.
That is why experts assure that if the balance is tilted to the left in the governors, the candidates for the presidential seat of that bloc could benefit more, and vice versa.
“The different conglomerates will demonstrate their ability to mobilize and summon people for this second round of governors. And those who win the election will be better positioned to kick off the presidential campaign, ”says Figueroa.
“Battle of Santiago”
The most emblematic case is that of the Metropolitan region, where there are more than six million people qualified to vote, which represents almost a third of the total electoral roll.
Claudio Orrego is supported by the presidential letter of the Socialist Party (PS), Paula Narváez, and that of the Christian Democrats (DC), Yasna Provoste. Although the latter has not yet confirmed her interest in a candidacy, her good positioning in the polls, has caused several leaders to consider her as such. Orrego is also active in the DC.
While, Karina Oliva has received the explicit support of the candidate for the presidency of the PC, Daniel Jadue (who is from the best positioned in the polls), and the Frente Amplio, Gabriel Boric.
“If Orrego wins, it is good news for Provoste and for the traditional left sector, as they will be able to claim that the people he is in favor of their proposals and not of the extreme left ”, says the political scientist, Kenneth Bunker.
It could also be the case that the right wing —which was surprisingly left out of this competition— turns to support Orrego.
“Perhaps someone could say that if Orrego wins it is because the right wing got scared and voted en masse for him, in the same way that the right could vote for Yasna Provoste to prevent Jadue from reaching the power ”, explains Cristóbal Bellolio , doctor of political philosophy and academic from the school of government of the University Adolfo Ibáñez.
On the contrary, if Oliva succeeds, the specialists say that it would be an “ideal” scenario especially for Jadue , because the PC has already won the mayoralty of Santiago with Hirací Hassler in May.
“If Karina Oliva wins the governorship, it would be interesting because the PC would have the mayor of Santiago and, as an ally, to the governor of the Metropolitan region. I would say that for Jadue it is an ideal scenario ”, says Bellolio .
The importance of the triumph of regional leaders also lies in the exposure that they will have in the months prior to the presidential elections.
“The governors are going to be closer to the people, they are going to have a platform that can greatly benefit the candidates,” says Bunker.
This may eventually become a significant disadvantage for the candidates of the right-wing bloc Chile Vamos (currently in power), which was not only marginalized from the competition in the Metropolitan, but also from six other regions.
The ruling coalition has its eyes set on the nine regions where it has candidates, three of them which are especially relevant: Arica, Los Ríos and Coquimbo.
If he did not win in any, the electoral debacle suffered by the right in May would be reinforced and would inevitably affect his presidential aspirations .
“Replica” of the social outbreak
But beyond the preference for the left, the center-left or the right, what will be is a choice between traditional leaderships, considered part of the establishment , and new and disruptive faces, which pose a profound change to Chile in recent years 30 years.
What there is no doubt is that the results of these elections will be strongly influenced by a reformulation of the electoral political system Chilean that comes from the social outbreak.
In the protests, a speech against the political class in general and the elites in particular resonated with force.
In addition, issues such as social justice, inequality and discrimination took the agenda, changing the axis of the discussion.
Thus, support for independent candidacies emerged and to the new leaderships, something that was reflected in the mid-May elections.
This time, several of the candidates for governor call themselves independent and try to disassociate themselves from traditional political blocs (despite the fact that many are being supported by them).
“Lo what happened with the elections of the 15 and the 16 May is a replica of the social outbreak. Several of the discursive elements that were present in the outbreak, such as anti-political, anti-elite, anti-establishment, had an electoral correlate. What we are going to see now, with the second round of governors, is whether that reply continues to exert its influence “, explains Cristóbal Bellolio .
For his In part, Bunker also affirms that in these elections there will be a competition between “traditional politics and new politics.”
“The bet of this new sector is to associate traditional politicians with an excessively complacent and corrupt of which they are not part ”, he points out.
In the case of the Metropolitan region, Karina Oliva —which represents a new and young leadership, and calls herself a feminist and “popular woman” -, has marked a distance with Claudio Orrego saying that he is part of “the same as always” and that e her project is more like Chile’s “social pre-outbreak.”
The representative of the Broad Front has focused her speech on strengthening the “Dignity of the people” , a key demand during the demonstrations.
On the contrary, Orrego emphasizes his long experience in public office, from mayor of one of the most popular communes in Chile, Peñalolén, to mayor and government official. “We add something that Oliva does not have, the experience of governing,” said the center-left candidate.
However, the scenario is not easy for Orrego: despite the fact that at the beginning all the analysts were betting on his triumph, Oliva’s popularity has increased considerably. And some polls have predicted his victory.
“No one doubts, from the point of view of In view of the competitions, that he is better prepared. But it seems that being better prepared, or having a more complete program, is not the most defining thing today, ”says Bellolio.
“He is a white man, heterosexual, Catholic, of the upper class, who has held all the political positions that have been participated in various governments … Therefore, he is the establishment . Instead she is positioned as a criticism of the 30 years in the history of Chile; She is young, a woman, she has never held public office. Orrego is his perfect adversary. ”
“ The vote for Karina Oliva is a vote against the political class of the last 30 years ”, adds the scientist
Pamela Figueroa, for her part, highlights the growing preference for female leaders among Chilean voters, something that could also play in Oliva’s favor.
“There is a high valuation of women’s leadership. Since plebiscite, those who increased electoral participation were women and young people, and that explains the renewal of leadership ”, he says.
But the experts advise that Orrego’s long experience in territorial work should not be underestimated.
In the final stretch of the governors’ campaign, the expectation in Chile has increased considerably.
Now we have to wait for the results to have a clearer idea of the voters’ preferences after a social crisis as deep as the one that has been experienced in this nation since October 2019.
What happens here, specialists say, should also be carefully observed by other Latin American countries that are facing outbreaks and crisis of representativeness, such as Colombia or Peru.
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