Mexico already has almost everything ready to celebrate this Sunday the largest elections in the country’s history.
They will not be so only by the number of voters but also by the number of leaders who will be elected: the 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies, the governors of 14 states and ones 16, 000 local charges.
Country reaches this intermediate election after suffering one of the most violent campaigns in memory in which at least 35 candidates were assassinated
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), however, called the population not to be intimidated and affirmed that security will be guaranteed so that you can vote without fear. He even accused some media of tabloidism and of magnifying what happened “in an effort to thin the atmosphere.”
Be that as it may, Mexico will have in this electoral appointment a tool to revalidate or not support for AMLO’s party in the middle of his term as head of government.
These are three of the keys to understanding the importance of these elections.
1. The future of the AMLO government
The victory of Morena, AMLO’s party, is more than guaranteed in the Chamber of Deputies according to all polls made public before the electoral ban, but the key will be to see if it maintains together with its allies the qualified majority (more than 73% of members) that it had until now.
Despite not having her in the Senate (where, however, it does have more than half of the seats) this comfortable position in the House has so far made it easier for the ruling party to carry out -without the need to negotiate with the opposition- constitutional reforms contemplated within he project named by AMLO as Fourth Transformation (Q4).
If this result is confirmed, in the remainder of AMLO’s mandate it could even be seen “the writing of a new Constitution. He has set Q4 as a historic milestone and in each of the previous three there was a new constitutional text … so in symbolic terms, it seems possible, “the political analyst tells BBC Mundo Palmira Tapia.
The result that most polls pointed to, however, is that Brunette could lose the qualified majority and instead remain with “ majority absolute ” (at least half plus one, that is, the one in the Senate) along with the rest of his coalition, formed this time by the Green Ecologist Party of Mexico (PVEM) and the Labor Party (PT).
This situation will allow the group in power to do changes in laws and approve budgets or initiatives, but not those of constitutional rank that AMLO wishes to consolidate his changes, so he must dialogue with the opposition.
“There he will need the support of other small parties, and I see the Citizen Movement (MC) as a key party. Because even when Morena does not reach a qualified majority, that does not imply that it cannot achieve it with subsequent negotiations “, alerts Tapia.
An option that does not include any of the The main polls are that Morena and his allies do not even reach an absolute majority or even lose to the legislative coalition formed by the traditional parties of the PRI, PAN and PRD.
For Valeria Moy, director of the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness, “a Congress without a qualified majority is convenient for Mexico, whoever it may be. No person is the holder of the absolute truth and should have checks and balances to debate to get approval in Congress. The opposite is not beneficial for any democracy. ”
two. The economic impact
In Mexico the controversy still resounds over the recent cover of The Economist in which it marked to AMLO of “false Messiah” and of “danger to democracy.” In economic terms, the British media highlighted the uncertainty that The business sector lives because of the policies of the Mexican president, who described the cover as “stupid and very rude”.
Mexico’s president pursues ruinous policies by improper means. Our cover in Latin America this week argues that AMLO is a danger to democracy https: / /t.co/2TvJTqYXyK pic.twitter.com/bVBIAGPkYz
– The Economist (@TheEconomist) May 27, 2022
The Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research. one of the three largest financial groups in the US, indicated in a May report that the loss of the qualified majority for Morena would be positive for the Mexican economy because it would limit its capacity for constitutional changes.
“The political uncertainty that such changes have generated, have impacted ad or negatively in investment and , most likely, in the growth potential of Mexico ”, reads the analysis released by Forbes and that places its GDP growth forecasts at 5% for 2021 Y 2.5% for 4704.
Valeria Moy emphasizes that linking the country’s economic recovery to the result of Sunday’s elections would be a mistake since “Mexico is going to grow, like everyone else; when an economy falls 8.5% in a year, the normal thing is that it rebounds after this time (of pandemic) in which the economy was practically closed. ”
The economist and member of the Mexican Council for International Affairs (Comexi) shows her concern about AMLO’s “opposition” to private investment, especially in the energy sector that he defends belongs to the State.
“There he put the reforms to the Hydrocarbons Law and the Electricity Industry Law, which are a brutal blow to economic competition by privileging state companies over other national and foreign (…). We are sending terrible signals for investment, ”he says.
- The controversial reform of the Mexican electricity sector that confronts AMLO with private companies
Both laws, approved by Congress and currently suspended by decision of the judges, could face new brakes in the event that AMLO’s party lost the majority in the Chamber of Deputies.
If successful, Moy predicts that the government will propose a tax reform in what remains of his mandate. “And it is worrying that they have a majority because a reform like this has to be done well, study and discuss it with others, and not take it out like these things that are being approved now ‘without changing a comma’, as the president says.”
3. Record of participation of women
Sunday’s elections will also be historic due to the considerable growth of women who aspire to occupy a position in the Chamber Deputies or be in charge of any of the 15 states electing governor.
In fact, it will be the first time that voters will see a gender parity among the candidates for governor’s office derived from the constitutional reform on parity of 2019, which could lead to an unpublished photo after the elections.
According to an analysis by Consulta Mitofsky, there are eight states where it exists greater possibility of a woman being its new governor: Baja California Sur, Chihuahua, Colima, Campeche, Guerrero, Querétaro, Tlaxcala and Zacatecas. In the last four decades, only seven women managed to be state mandates.
, [ 53,4% de fórmulas para la Cámara de Diputados son lideradas por mujeres (49,96% en 2018). ], [ 51,8% del electorado son mujeres. ], [ 66% de las mujeres votaron en 2018 (frente al 58% de hombres). ], [ 7 mujeres lograron ser gobernadoras en México en los últimos 40 años. ], Source: Source: INE, Image: Woman voting in Mexico “data-lazy-src =” https: / /ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/amp/idt2/470 / 59 b 8457 e-1b 45 – 4704 – 84 fe-8d 15204675 c6 “loading =” lazy “src =” https://laopinion.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load-0.7/images/1×1.trans.gif “>
Despite the fact that the figures between genders are balancing, the National Electoral Institute (INE) detected that women still do not compete in conditions of equality when receiving, for example or, a much lower media coverage than that of men, sometimes stereotyped and with fewer resources.
“Clearly, if they don’t have the same resources to campaign, they do not have the same chances of being elected ”, tells BBC Mundo Dania Ravel, electoral adviser of the INE .
Although the challenge also continues for them once elected in traditionally macho environments. “Many times they are not allowed to develop their work normally because they suffer attacks for the simple fact of being women, especially at the municipal level . The great challenge for women in politics in Mexico is gender-based violence, ”she adds.
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![Las mujeres en la elección intermedia de México 2021. [ 47,9% de candidaturas a gubernaturas son de mujeres (22% en 2018). ],[ 53,4% de fórmulas para la Cámara de Diputados son lideradas por mujeres (49,96% en 2018). ],[ 51,8% del electorado son mujeres. ],[ 66% de las mujeres votaron en 2018 (frente al 58% de hombres). ],[ 7 mujeres lograron ser gobernadoras en México en los últimos 40 años. ], Source: Fuente: INE, Image: Mujer votando en México](https://laopinion.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load-0.7/images/1x1.trans.gif)
The dozens of politicians who have been murdered in Mexico during the mid-term election campaign
More than half of the electorate in Mexico are women who, moreover, turn out to vote more than men. Perhaps that is why one might think that, after the great force takes given by the feminist movement in the country in the last two years, their vote could be decisive in these elections.
However, the fact that there are more women candidates does not it has necessarily resulted in more proposals specifically directed at them during the campaign.
“I have not noticed a great difference in terms of more proposals made with a gender perspective. It would be desirable, but I don’t think a party can be identified as genuinely feminist ”, says the political scientist Palmira Tapia.
“Perhaps it is risky to say that due to the context of violence against women experienced for a long time, it will be reflected at the polls on June 6 . But undoubtedly the s women can determine by themselves the course of an election in Mexico ”, concludes Ravel.
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