Friday, November 22

What could it mean for Latin America if Trump names Marco Rubio as Secretary of State?

He called the Venezuelan government “Maduro’s narco-dictatorship.” That of Cuba, a “criminal regime” that is “an enemy of the United States.” And he defined Nicaragua as “a center of illegal mass migration.”

Marco Rubio has been characterized in his 13 years as a US senator for taking tough positions towards those and other countries governed by leftists, and for cultivating ties with right-wing leaders in the region.

But now this son of Cuban immigrants has been selected by US President-elect Donald Trump as his next Secretary of State.

“He will be a steadfast Defender of our Nation, a true friend of our Allies and a fearless Warrior who will never back down from our adversaries,” Trump said when announcing Rubio’s nomination in a statement.

The senator responded that he felt “honored” by the trust.

“Under the leadership of President Trump, we will achieve peace through strength and we will always put the interest of Americans and the United States above all else,” he said on the X social network.

Then a question arises: What will his Republican “hawk” positions mean for Latin America?

More attention?

Born 53 years ago in the state of Florida, a lawyer by profession and bilingual in English and Spanish, Rubio will be the first Latino to lead US diplomacy if he is confirmed in office by the Senate, as is expected to happen.

This, his interest in Latin American politics and his constant repulsion towards the governments of Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua makes some analysts see his appointment as a sign of greater US attention towards the region, which is far from its priorities since long ago.

AFP: Trump has gone from seeing Rubio as a competitor in the Republican race to a defender of his slogan of “America first.”

However, Rubio’s selection for the State Department appears to be “largely because he is a hawk on non-Latin American issues like China and Iran,” says Alan McPherson, a Temple University expert on Washington’s relations with Latin America.

“I don’t think much more attention is paid to Latin America simply because of its presence in the cabinet,” McPherson tells BBC Mundo.

In fact, Trump has chosen as his next National Security Advisor another “hawk” critical of China and Iran: Representative Michael Waltz, who in his military past participated in combat missions in Afghanistan, the Middle East and Africa.

As a member of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations and Intelligence committees, Rubio has also been an active opponent of growing Chinese influence in America..

Sanctions defender

Since entering the Upper House in 2011, Rubio defended conservative causes such as opposition to the normalization of relations with Havana promoted by the government of Democrat Barack Obama (2009-2017).

Although Rubio also criticized Trump when he unsuccessfully competed with him for the Republican nomination in 2016, his influence grew in his first government, to the point that the US media identified him as a shadow secretary of state for Latin America.

He was an architect of the failed strategy of recognizing the Venezuelan opposition deputy in 2019 Juan Guaidó as “interim president” of his country in place of the socialist Nicolás Maduro, who nevertheless remains in power.

Getty Images:

Rubio is a firm defender of sanctions against Venezuela and Cubawhich tightened under Trump’s mandate.

Different experts expect him to maintain that hard line as Secretary of State, although others pointed out after Trump’s election the possibility that his government could change in the face of Venezuela and explore agreements in areas such as migration to avoid a new wave of expatriates from that country in the continent.

Cynthia Arnson, a distinguished fellow at the Wilson Center, a think tank in Washington, DC, believes that the second Trump administration will again “impose sanctions to punish left-wing autocrats for their bad behavior, without considering the impact on the civilian population.” .

“The Trump administration will most likely reimpose blanket oil sanctions against Venezuela, including secondary sanctions on companies like Repsol and Eni and countries like India that do business with [la petrolera estatal] PdVSA,” Arnson tells BBC Mundo.

He also believes it is possible that an attempt will be made to expel Nicaragua from the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), to deny Daniel Ortega’s government access to the US market, the main destination for the country’s exports. .

“The secondary consequences of that are important: leaving hundreds of thousands of people out of work in the textile and other sectors, increasing migratory pressures in neighboring Costa Rica, as well as on the southern border of the US,” says Arnson. , who is a professor of international studies at Johns Hopkins University.

But Rubio’s political positions in Latin America have gone far beyond those governments.

Other reviews

As a senator, Rubio has also criticized other left-wing Latin American leaders for their positions.

When the president of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, announced in May that he would break relations with Israel over the war in Gaza that he considers “genocidal,” Rubio called him a “terrorist sympathizer” on the social network who wants to be the Colombian version of Hugo Chávez”, the deceased former Venezuelan socialist president.

When the Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, indicated at the beginning of his government that he would seek closer ties with both the United States and China, Rubio also came out to his crossroads.

“President Biden must take a firm line, holding Lula responsible for his friendship with the CCP (Chinese Communist Party), as well as with other bloodthirsty dictatorships such as those in Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela,” the senator wrote in The Epoch Times in February 2023.

A year earlier, he maintained for in Venezuela.”

Getty Images: Brazilian President Lula and Colombian Petro have also been targets of accusations by Rubio.

If Rubio were to repeat messages of this type as Secretary of State, he would risk causing diplomatic tensions with countries that are neighbors and old allies of the United States, so maybe moderate your words.

However, during his first administration, Trump made derogatory comments and threats to some countries in the region, and perhaps he also chose Rubio for his rhetoric.

The president-elect has already warned that he could punish Mexico with tariffs on its exports to the United States if the country does not stop the passage of undocumented migrants across the border.

This or Trump’s promise to deport millions of undocumented immigrants from the US has led analysts to predict difficult times in the US’s relationship with the government of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, a political ally of López. Obrador.

“When focusing on the region, We can expect Rubio to be tough on Mexico and Central America as origins of migrants to the US.“says McPherson.

Possible allies?

On the other hand, Rubio has suggested that Washington strengthen ties with countries such as Argentina, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Peru or the Dominican Republic, governed by right-wing or center-right forces.

In February, the Republican senator traveled to South America to visit and express his support for the ultraliberal president of Argentina, Javier Milei.

He was also received by Santiago Peña, president of Paraguay, Taiwan’s only diplomatic ally in the subcontinent.

Getty Images: As a senator, Rubio attended hemispheric forums such as the Summit of the Americas in Lima during the first administration of Trump, who was absent.

Last year, Rubio visited El Salvador to meet with President Nayib Bukele, whose anti-crime policy he has praised despite complaints that it involves human rights abuses.

He also traveled to Ecuador before the government of Daniel Noboa took office, whom he has also supported in his tough policy on security.

But for the moment It is uncertain what benefit Rubio would promote as Secretary of State for the Latin American governments that he views with pleasure.especially when his new boss raises the slogan of “U.S. first” that he himself repeats now.

BBC:

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  • Trump appoints Marco Rubio as Secretary of State: the son of Cuban migrants who becomes the Latino with the most important position in US history.
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