Donald Trump was declared the winner of the United States presidential elections this Wednesday.
With 279 electoral votes (270 were needed), he won the race over Vice President Kamala Harris, who announced on Tuesday night that she would not give statements while votes continue to be counted.
Trump – who in 2020 was defeated by Joe Biden – thus becomes the second president in US history. in governing for two non-consecutive periods.
The previous one was Grover Cleveland, who occupied the White House between 1885 and 1889, failed when trying to be re-elected and four years later achieved a new mandate, which he served between 1893 and 1897.
But it is unlikely that Trump will be remembered for this historical curiosity.
His figure stands out, rather, for having gone from being a outsider to become the undisputed leader of the Republicans and a leader who has a great impact on the world’s leading power.
When Trump ran for president in 2015, few inside and outside the Republican Party – which he had joined three years earlier – thought he would reach the White House.
The businessman did not control the party machinerydid not have its own political platform and managed a limited budget.
Much of this political agenda that he presented for his first term is part of his plans for the second presidency, which will begin on January 20, 2025 and will culminate in 2029, when Trump will be 82 and a half years old, which will make him – another historical curiosity – the oldest sitting president in US history.
But let’s see what can be expected from Trump’s second term from the perspective of some of the most relevant issues of the campaign.
Migration and border: “the largest deportation in history”
Immigration and the border were central topics on Trump’s agenda during the election campaign.
The Republican intensified his anti-immigrant speech, stating that they “poison the blood of the country” and holding them responsible for both an alleged increase in crime – something that has no basis, according to experts and official figures – and for the increase in housing prices.
Furthermore, he stated without evidence that there are countries like Venezuela that are supposedly emptying their prisons and institutions for the mentally ill and sending these people to the United States.
These statements are reminiscent of those he made in 2015, when he launched his first candidacy for the White House and accused Mexico of sending “people with a lot of problems” to the United States.
Looking ahead to a new term, Trump promised expel millions of undocumented foreigners from the country in what he claims will be the “largest deportation” in the history of the United States.
According to estimates by the Pew study center, by 2022 there will be about 11 million undocumented migrants in the United States, although Trump and his campaign claim that there are many millions more.
Numerous experts have warned that A mass deportation of migrants would be costly and difficult to undertakein addition to the fact that it could have negative effects on certain areas of the economy in which undocumented labor plays a key role.
According to estimates made by the organization FWD.US, in the US there were 5.2 million undocumented people in essential jobs during the pandemic. This includes around 1.7 million people who worked throughout the food production and marketing chain.
Undocumented workers represent around 17% of agricultural workers and 13% of the construction sector, according to a 2016 Pew study.
Trump also promised to seal the border with Mexico and said that will continue building the wall between both countriesone of the central promises of his first term, during which some 129 kilometers were erected (much of them replacing deteriorated fences) of the 727 kilometers that that barrier had when he left the presidency.
The Republican candidate also proposes taking other measures such as reestablishing the policy that forced asylum seekers to remain in Mexico until their requests are approved and eliminate the right to citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants born in the United States.
Economy: less taxes, more tariffs
The good performance of the US economy during the Trump government – before the arrival of the covid-19 pandemic – is one of the aspects that most favored his candidacy in 2024.
According to a study by the Gallup pollster published on October 9, the 54% of voters believed that Trump can handle the economy better than Harris.
What can be expected for a second term?
Trump promised new tax cuts to extend those he already made during his first term when he reduced the corporate rate to 21% and also cut taxes on individuals, although these only temporarily, until 2025.
The Republican said in the campaign that he wants to lower corporate rates even further to 15% and that will eliminate taxes on tips and on the payments that pensioners receive from Social Security.
He also proposed increasing energy production in the US – increasing the exploitation of fossil fuels – as he believes that their high cost contributed to inflation.
He also stated that he will reduce the cost of housing by starting a program of building houses on federal lands, as well as reducing demand by deporting undocumented immigrants whom he blames for the increase in prices.
He also said that will impose a system of tariffs of 10% to 20% on the import of most foreign products. Many economists have warned, however, that such measures will end up being paid for by American consumers in the form of higher prices.
In this policy of increasing tariffs, China will occupy a central place, because after having started a trade war with Beijing during his first government, Trump now contemplates establishing tariffs of 60% on all goods imported from that country.
The Republican leader also promised to adopt a four-year plan to eliminate the import of essential goods from China and establish new regulations for American companies to invest in China “only when those investments favor the United States.”
In 2023, the United States imported goods valued at about $426,885 million from China.
It is foreseeable that if Trump adopts these measures, the trade war with Beijing will intensify, which could have consequences not only for the bilateral relationship, but also for the global economy.
The unknowns about abortion
The repeal of the right to abortion in the United States is one of the greatest political consequences of the Republican agenda executed by Donald Trump during his first government, but during the 2024 campaign it became a kind of electoral minefield for him.
In his first administration, Trump established a conservative supermajority in the Supreme Court of Justice with the appointment of three new magistrates.
This new majority repealed in 2022 the right to abortion at the federal level (in force since 1973), which was precisely one of the objectives that the Republican politician had set for himself with these appointments.
This change has had consequences. Currently, There are 14 states in which there is a total or almost total ban on abortion and there are three other states, in which it is only allowed before the sixth week of pregnancy, by which time it is common that women have not even found out that they are pregnant.
Because of these prohibitions there have been cases of women who have died because the doctors did not provide them with the required health care for fear of being criminally prosecuted.
These measures led to political setbacks for the Republicans, who have lost several elections since 2022, even in traditionally conservative states, where a majority of voters consider that the restrictions imposed on abortion have gone too far.
This forced Trump to play a kind of balancing act during the campaign. in which, at the same time that the repeal of this right by the Supreme Court was awarded as its own success, it avoided establishing a firm position, saying that each state must decide on the regulation of this matter.
What do you plan to do about it in a new mandate?
During the campaign, Trump denied that if he wins the White House he will sign a national ban on abortion and criticized Florida legislation that prohibits this practice after the sixth week of pregnancy, but he also said that he opposes an initiative electoral to establish the right to abortion in that state.
An isolationist foreign policy
The isolationist proposal called “America First” was the source of numerous controversies during the Trump administration and will again guide his foreign policy upon his return to the White House.
Agenda 47, Trump’s government program, establishes among its objectives to prevent World War III and restore peace in Europe and the Middle East.
America’s European partners are concerned about Trump’s return to the presidency.
“I cannot sugarcoat these warnings. Donald Trump is Europe’s nightmare, and his threat to withdraw from NATO resonates in the ears of the entire world“Rose Gottemoeller, former deputy secretary general of NATO, told the BBC during the election campaign.
One of the biggest concerns of Europeans is related to the war in Ukraine.
The Republican candidate said Kyiv should have made concessions to Moscow before the war to avoid conflict and criticized the economic and military support that his country has given to Ukraine after Russia’s invasion, considering that it has been excessive and that it has served more to prolong the conflict than to solve it.
Trump said that if he had been in the White House, that war would not have happened and maintains that he will end that war in 24 hours, through a negotiated agreement with Russia.
His critics, however, believe that in this way the only thing he will achieve is to give greater strength to Vladimir Putin.
In relation to the war in Gaza, Trump declared himself as the “protector of Israel” although he criticized the way in which that country has handled the conflict and called for Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to achieve victory soon and return to normality.
“I will achieve peace in the Middle East and soon,” he said recently in an interview with Sa television station. udita Al Arabiya.
Trump also promised to expand the so-called Abraham Accords, which he helped establish in 2020 and through which four Arab countries agreed to normalize diplomatic relations with Israel: the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Bahrain and Sudan.
Those agreements They have been criticized for having left aside the Palestinian causewhich has historically been the main obstacle to the establishment of ties between Israel and Arab countries.
The next country that was going to join the agreements was Saudi Arabia, but after the war in Gaza, the Saudi monarchy has said that it will not do so until a route for the creation of a Palestinian state is on the table, a possibility that which the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has so far resisted.
In this way, it is not clear how Trump would manage to revive the Abraham Accords.
Savior or destroyer of American democracy?
Democracy in the United States is one of the issues that was at the center of the 2024 presidential campaign. But it is an issue on which there were divergent views.
Republicans claim that a second Trump administration would serve to “restore government of, for, and by the people.”as well as to enforce the Constitution and defend the integrity of the elections.
Democrats, in contrast, believe that Trump’s refusal to acknowledge his defeat in the 2020 presidential election, as well as his efforts to overturn those results and prevent the certification of Joe Biden’s victory (including the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021), are proof that the former president is a threat to democracy.
In any case, what does seem clear is that Republicans will seek to make Trump’s second term more effective and to ensure that the achievement of his objectives is not hindered by career officials who do not agree with the Republican’s ideas.
Certainly during the Trump administration there were officials of different ranks who moderated or stopped the president’s initiatives for different reasons, including considering them harmful to the country or illegal.
On the other hand, Republicans believe that the Trump administration was negatively affected by the lack of preparation of its own team.
In fact, the former president recently said that his biggest mistake in power had been choosing “bad or disloyal people.”
To overcome these two problems, Agenda 47 foresees that on the first day of the Trump administration he will sign an executive order that allows him to place people he trusts in key executive positions that have traditionally been covered by career officials.
This is something that excites Trumpists and, in fact, it is something that he attempted when he signed a similar executive order in August 2020, the fruits of which he did not reap because shortly after he had to leave the presidency after losing the elections.
“That rule, in effect, would allow a president to fire thousands of government employees and replace them with his supporters.”explains Anthony Zurcher.
“For the former president’s supporters, having a more willing team of officials and assistants will mean a less chaotic and more effective Trump presidency when it comes to promoting policies,” he adds.
However, it is a possibility that is causing concern among Trump’s critics.
Barbara Perry, a professor of presidential studies at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center, warns that replacing civil servants would deprive the public administration of the knowledge and experience that these people have accumulated by working for decades in a non-partisan way.
“In the United States, the reform of the public service was undertaken in the 19th century, precisely to get rid of people who were in those positions for political reasons,” he indicates.
“If that happens there will be no brakes or any element of containment to limit Trump’s agenda and extremism”, he adds.
This situation would be aggravated, according to the expert, by the fact that Trump already has a conservative supermajority on the Supreme Court, so if the Republicans win the White House and Congress, it will be very difficult to put limits on the government.
Agenda 47, however, states that these measures to take over the Executive with officials related to Trump will serve to dismantle the so-called “Deep State”, an alleged secret network of unelected officials who would control the State, and fight against corruption within the government.
With the victory of Donald Trump, Americans will now be able to check which of these two readings is correct.
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