This is surely the most dramatic comeback in American political history.
When Donald Trump lost to Joe Biden in 2020that seemed like the death knell for his political career.
His first term ended in chaos and with social condemnation even from members of his own party.
Four years later, Donald Trump is preparing to return to the White House, after millions of Americans voted to give him a second chance.
“They knock him down and he gets up twice as focused. “I don’t think anyone should be surprised by this comeback,” he said. Bryan Lanzapolitical advisor to the now president-elect.
The Republican leader will make his triumphant return as a man who seems to bullet proof in politicswith a detailed action plan and ranks of loyal followers.
A brief exile
Four years ago, Trump seemed defeated.
His Democratic opponent, Joe Bidenhad beaten him by a comfortable margin in the November 2020 presidential election.
The court had rejected his attempts to challenge those results.
Weeks after the defeat, a mob of Trump supporters violently invaded the Capitolin Washington, to stop the certification of Biden’s electoral victory.
The attack sent those inside the Capitol running for safety, while hundreds of law enforcement officers were injured.
As a result, some Trump administration officials, such as the Secretary of Education, Betsy DeVos, and that of Transportation, Elaine Chaoresigned from their positions days before the end of the government (January 2021) in protest.
“There is no doubt about the impact your rhetoric had on the situation and that is the turning point for me,” DeVos wrote in her resignation letter to the president.
Even the Republican senator from South Carolina, Lindsey Grahamone of Trump’s closest allies, broke with the former president.
“The only thing I can say is don’t count on me. “Enough is enough,” he said in the Senate.
Trump’s disengagement extended to the corporate world, as dozens of large companies – including American Express, Microsoft, Nike and Walgreens– announced that they were suspending support for Republicans who had challenged the results of the 2020 election.
On Biden’s inauguration day, Trump broke with 152 years of tradition by refusing to attend the ceremony and instead flew back to his private club at Mar-a-Lago that same morning, accompanied by a handful of his closest aides and family.
His mood was gloomy, according to Meridith McGrawauthor of Trump in Exile (Random House, 2024), an account of the former president’s time after leaving the White House.
“He was angry, frustrated, unsure of how to spend his days and without a plan for his political future,” the author said.
The media coverage and political conversations that month reflected that uncertainty about his future.
After a clear electoral defeat followed by the chaotic scenes at the Capitol, some were even more forceful, suggesting there was no turning back for Trump.
“And so, Donald J. Trump’s bold, explosive and sometimes brilliant political career comes to an end,” read an op-ed in The Hill.
While an op-ed in The New York Times, published in January 2021, declared: “The terrible experiment is over.” The headline of that article was even more direct: “President Donald J. Trump: The End.”
But before Trump left for Florida on Inauguration Day, he gave hints of what was to come.
“We love you,” he said in remarks to supporters on the tarmac of a Maryland Air Force base.
“We will return in some form,” he added.
A week later, it became clear that Trump would not have to wait long to assert his continued political influence: the Republican party returned to him.
California Congressman Kevin McCarthyRepublican leader in the House of Representatives, visited the former president at Mar-a-Lago, posing for a photo next to a beaming Trump.
Immediately after the Jan. 6 attack, McCarthy had said Trump bore “responsibility” for the mob violence and recommended that Congress formally censure him for his conduct.
But days later he committed to working with the former president to win a majority in Congress in the midterm elections the following year (2022).
As the Democratic-controlled U.S. Senate prepared to hold Trump’s impeachment trial, McCarthy’s pilgrimage to Palm Beach illustrated that one of the most powerful Republicans in Congress still viewed the former president as a kingmaker.
McCarthy’s Visit “It really opened the door for Trump.”said Meridith McGraw.
“It was permission for Republicans who had criticized Trump to forgive him and move on,” he added.
Trump’s Senate trial would end in acquittalas most Republicans, including some outspoken critics like the Senate Minority Leader, Mitch McConnellvoted against a conviction that could have led to the former president being disqualified from future elective positions.
McConnell had said that Trump’s conduct in the assault on the Capitol was “a shameful dereliction of duty”but decided not to take the step that could have definitively ended the former president’s political career, perhaps for fear of effectively ending his own.
Republicans also feared that the former president could create a third party that would take away support from Republicans, concerns that Trump’s closest aides did little to allay.
“It’s clearly up to Republicans if this becomes more serious,” he said at the time. Jason Millera veteran Trump communications aide, in an interview with Fox News.
For the next month, Trump was mostly within the comfortable confines of his Mar-a-Lago club, venturing out only for a round of golf or a private dinner.
In late February, as the furor surrounding the assault on the Capitol subsided, he was ready to hold his first public event.
In the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC, for its acronym in English), a right-wing meeting held in the United States, the former president showed that he still had the loyalty of the Republican base.
Addressing thousands of cheering supporters in a sprawling hotel conference center, Trump basked in the glow of their adoration.
“I stand before you today to declare that the incredible journey we began together It’s far from over.”he pointed out.
He also hinted, timidly, that he could beat the Democrats “for the third time” in 2024.
An official survey of conference attendees only underlined what was obvious by then.
68% of respondents said Trump should run for president again.
While 55% said they would vote for him in a contested primary, more than double the second-place candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
“Trump and his team were pretty nervous about that speech,” said Meridith McGraw, author of Trump in Exile.
“Psychologically it was a very important moment for Trump and his allies when he received a such a positive reception.”
After a brief pause, Trump reactivated his steady stream of fundraising emails to his supporters and resumed holding his carnival-like outdoor rallies.
“Do you miss me?” Trump asked at a June rally in Ohio. The crowd responded with cheers.
“They miss me,” he concluded.
Midterm elections
If 2021 was an indication of Trump’s influence within the Republican Party, the 2022 midterm elections confirmed this.
By then, US military forces had withdrawn from Afghanistan randomly, which caused the fall of that nation’s government, backed by the United States.
The gasoline prices and inflation They were approaching maximums not seen in decades. U.S. economic growth, which had been recovering from the disruptions of the pandemic, faltered.
Biden’s approval ratings fell into negative territory. And the political environment that had seemed so hostile to Trump in early 2021 was beginning to change.
“Joe Biden did not address the main concerns of voters,” said Bryan Lanza, the now president-elect’s political adviser.
“That gave Donald Trump an opportunity”he added.
Mar-a-Lago became a mandatory stopping point for any conservative candidate seeking to become the electoral card of his party.
Trump’s endorsement was the most coveted prize: a key to unlocking fundraising dollars and grassroots conservative support.
Four of the six Republican members of the House of Representatives who voted in favor of a second impeachment against Trump and who were running for re-election were defeated by Trump-backed candidates in the party’s primaries.
Meanwhile, Senate candidates like J. D. Vancein Ohio, and Herschel Walkerin Georgia, advanced with the help of Trump’s support.
“His endorsement practically guaranteed a victory in the primaries,” he said. Brian Seitchikwho worked as Arizona state director for the Trump campaign in 2016 and as western regional director in 2020.
But if the first half of 2022 was unequivocally good news for the former president, the November elections painted a very different picture.
Of the four prominent Senate candidates endorsed by Trump, only one -JD Vance- defeated his Democratic opponent.
While Republicans narrowly regained control of the House of Representatives, the party largely underperformed and Democrats retained control of the Senate.
In Florida, the governor Ron DeSantis won a surprising re-election victory by nearly 20 points, fueling speculation that he could be the true favorite for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
Meanwhile, Trump was furious and attributed Republican shortcomings to the party’s support for unpopular restrictions on abortion and insufficient loyalty to its own brand.
Just weeks after the midterm elections, with pundits still wondering whether the former president’s political moment had passed, Trump formally launched his 2024 presidential campaign.
Trump’s path to the nomination
The start of his presidential bid seemed surprisingly ill-timed.
Just weeks after the Republicans’ failure in the midterm elections, Trump made headlines while many were still wondering if he had lost his political instinct.
His formal announcement, held in the cozy confines of Mar-a-Lago, made his campaign seem insular and ill-suited to the political realities of the time.
She would later make headlines for all the wrong reasons: dining at Mar-a-Lago with Nick Fuentesa prominent white nationalist, and posting on social media that the rules of the United States Constitution should be “ended,” allowing him to become president again.
“From Thanksgiving to New Year’s was a pretty dark time in the Trump campaign,” McGraw said.
Republicans had their doubts.
Behind the scenes, however, Trump was assembling a campaign team that – unlike in 2016 and even 2020 – was led by experienced political operatives.
Maybe Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles They may not be household names, but the former was a veteran of Republican politics with decades of experience and the latter had helped turn Florida into a conservative bastion.
The two worked with Trump to formulate a presidential primary strategy.
While Ron DeSantis was engrossed in his official duties in Florida, Trump scrambled to define the contours of the campaign, Bryan Lanza said.
And while others postponed the governor of Florida, Trump It hit him head-on, lowering and diminishing him.
“Everyone thought Ron DeSantis was at a powerful apex of politics that couldn’t be brought down,” Lanza said.
“Donald Trump took him down,” he added.
Trump’s camp also received a boost from the most unlikely of sources: prosecutors in New York, Georgia and the Justice Department in Washington.
He criminal risk of the former president – which began with the FBI’s search for sensitive national security documents at Mar-a-Lago in August 2022 and culminated in a series of indictments in 2023 – became a central issue in the nomination fight Republican presidential election, which was developing rapidly.
Trump’s mug shot, which appeared in an Atlanta jail in August, soon appeared on campaign T-shirts.
For many on the left, justice was finally being served. But among the kind of conservative voters who choose their party’s candidate in early voting states, such as Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolinait became a moment to support his party’s beleaguered leader.
Conservative pollster and political strategist Sarah Longwell interviewed a panel of Iowa Republicans in June 2023, a week after the Justice Department indicted Trump on charges related to his mishandling of sensitive government documents.
“I think they are setting a trap for him.”said one.
“This is election interference like we’ve never seen before,” another added.
The accusations, according to Lanza, created a division within the Republican Party among those who saw the accusation as an abuse of power and who does not.
By the fall of 2023, Trump had gained a huge lead in most Republican primary polls.
He skipped these primary debates and focused on solidifying his support among grassroots voters through his signature rallies and grassroots organizing.
Despite raising nearly $200 million in campaign funds, Ron DeSantis was out of the race just days after finishing a distant second in the January 2024 Iowa caucuses.
After Trump easily defeated the former South Carolina governor, Nikki Haleythe fight for the Republican primaries was practically over.
For the third consecutive presidential election, the party’s nomination was his.
Trials, tribulations and triumphs
Trump’s courtroom drama may have been a boon to his political fortunes, but it also came with real legal danger.
In May 2024, a Manhattan jury convicted Trump of 34 related crimes with the payment of money to the adult film star Stormy Daniels.
However, each judicial setback seemed to be followed by a greater victory.
His sentencing was delayed until after the presidential election, documentary indictments in Florida were dismissed, and the Supreme Court ruled that presidents They have total immunity for official acts.
Outside the courtrooms, Trump’s campaign was moving forward.
A hesitant and confusing performance by Biden in his late June debate with the former president left Democrats in total panicwhile Trump’s approval ratings and poll numbers were getting higher.
And after an assassination attempt against him in mid-July, he arrived at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee as a hero to his supporters.
“There we saw how unified the Republican Party seemed, really for the first time in a long time,” McGraw said. “They felt incredibly confident.”
The head of Tesla, Elon Muskthe richest man in the world, publicly endorsed the former president and began financing a massive organizing operation in key battleground states.
Republican pride – pride in Trump – was through the roof.
At the time, it seemed that Trump’s return to the pinnacles of American power from the depths of January 6, 2021, was almost complete.
A campaign that had first defeated DeSantis and his other Republican rivals was now poised to deliver a final blow to Biden and the Democrats.
But three days after Trump formally accepted the Republican Party’s presidential nomination, Biden abandoned his reelection bid and supported his vice president, Kamala Harris.
In a matter of just a few weeks, Harris consolidated her party’s support, injected new enthusiasm into Democrats and even moved ahead of the former president in some polls.
Trump’s efforts were not helped by his mixed performance in the debate against Harris in September and an apparent difficulty in reorienting his campaign to take on his new opponent, whose strengths – and weaknesses – were decidedly different from Biden’s.
“Trump really didn’t test himself until Harris entered the race,” said Trump aide Brian Seitchik.
As the elections approached, uncertainty about who was going to win remained.
But in the early hours of this November 5, there were no longer any doubts: with a resounding victory against Kamala Harris, Trump made a triumphant return to the White House.
Is a “fundamental reorientation” coming?
Trump will return to the presidency having overcome obstacles (legal and political, many of his own creation) that few presidents have faced.
With control of the reins of power, and without the burden of having to face the judgment of the voters again, Trump will be able to make these legal dangers disappear.
And, unlike his first term, this time he will arrive at the White House with a team of advisors and potential administration officials who are completely loyal to him.
His intention to drastically reorganize the federal bureaucracy could replace career officials with political disciples.
Additionally, Trump could impose new restrictions on immigration, enact his plans to mass deport undocumented residents and impose tariffs designed to protect American jobs but that could significantly increase the cost of imported goods.
Democrats warn that this may be a presidency without “fences” to limit what they say are the Trump’s most dangerous proposals.
Republicans, a party that has been remade in Trump’s image, hope that he can more effectively enact his agenda without the internal resistance he faced in his first term.
Now as president-elect, Trump could fundamentally reshape American government for generations to come.
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