When US President Joe Biden arrived in Kyiv in February 2023 on a surprise visit to show solidarity with Volodymyr Zelensky, his Ukrainian counterpart, air raid sirens were sounding.
“I felt something… stronger than ever,” he later recalled. “America is a beacon to the world.”
The world now waits to see who will take over this supposed beacon after Americans make their decision in the November 5 presidential election.
Will Kamala Harris follow Biden’s point that in “these unstable times, it is clear that America cannot go backwards”? Or will Donald Trump’s idea that “Americanism, not globalism” should lead the way prevail?
We live in a world where America’s global influence is in question.
Regional powers are going their own way, autocratic regimes are forging their own alliances, and devastating wars in Gaza, Ukraine and elsewhere raise uncomfortable questions about Washington’s role.
But the United States is important because of its economic and military power, and its significant role in many alliances.
We consulted some informed observers for their reflections on the global consequences of this very important election.
military power
“I cannot sugarcoat these warnings,” says Rose Gottemoeller, former deputy secretary general of NATO.
“Donald Trump is Europe’s nightmareand his threat to withdraw from NATO resonates in everyone’s ears.”
Washington’s defense spending is equivalent to two-thirds of the military budgets of the other 31 NATO members.
Outside NATO, The United States spends more on its military than the next 10 countries combined, including China and Russia.
Trump boasts of behaving aggressively to force other NATO countries to meet their spending targets, which are 2% of their GDP; only 23 of the member countries have achieved this goal by 2024.
But his erratic statements bother.
If Harris wins, Gottemoeller believes that “NATO will certainly be in good hands in Washington.”
But it also has a warning about it. “(Harris) will be willing to continue working with NATO and the European Union to achieve victory in Ukraine, but it will not stop putting pressure on Europe [sobre el gasto]”.
But Harris’ White House team will have to govern with the Senate and House of Representatives, which could soon be in Republican hands, and Republicans will be less inclined to support foreign wars than their Democratic counterparts.
There is a growing sense that no matter who becomes president, pressure will increase on Kyiv to find ways out of this war as U.S. lawmakers They are increasingly reluctant to approve huge aid packages.
Whatever happens, Gottemoeller says, “I don’t think NATO should disintegrate.” Europe will have to “step forward to lead.”
The peacemaker?
The next president of the United States will have to work in a world that faces the greatest risk of a great power confrontation since the Cold War.
“The United States remains the most important international player in peace and security,” says Comfort Ero, president and CEO of the International Crisis Group.
But he warns that “its power to help resolve conflicts has been reduced.”
Wars are increasingly difficult to end. “Deadly conflicts are becoming more intricate, with the acceleration of great power competition and the rise of middle powers,” Ero says.
Wars like the one in Ukraine attract multiple powers, and conflagrations like the one in Sudan pit regional actors with competing interests, some more interested in war than peace.
The United States is losing the moral high ground, Ero points out. “Global actors realize that this applies one standard to Russia’s actions in Ukraine and another to Israel’s in Gaza. “The war in Sudan has been the scene of terrible atrocities, but it is treated as a second-rate matter.”
A Harris victory, he states, “represents continuity with the current administration”.
If Trump wins, “he could give Israel an even freer hand in Gaza and elsewhere, and he has hinted that he could try to reach a deal on Ukraine with Moscow over Kyiv.”
In the Middle East, the Democratic candidate has repeatedly echoed Biden’s strong support for Israel’s “right to defend itself.” But he has also insisted that “we must stop killing innocent Palestinians.”
Trump has also declared that it is time to “get back to peace and stop killing people.” But, he is reported to have told Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu to “do what you have to do.”
The Republican candidate prides himself on being a peacemaker. “I will have peace in the Middle East, and soon,” he promised in an interview with Saudi television Al Arabiya last Sunday.
He promised to expand the 2020 Abraham Accords. These bilateral agreements normalized relations between Israel and some Arab states, but were seen as marginalizing the Palestinians. and ultimately contributed to the current unprecedented crisis.
As for Ukraine, Trump has made no secret of his admiration for strongmen like Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
He has made clear that he wants to end the war in Ukraine and strong military and financial support from the United States. “I’ll get out of there. We have to get out of there,” he insisted at a recent rally.
Instead, Harris said: “I have been proud to support Ukraine. “I will continue to support her and work to ensure she prevails in this war.”
But Ero is worried that, No matter who is elected, things continue to get worse in the world.
Business with Beijing
“The biggest shock to the global economy in decades”. That’s the view of leading China expert Rana Mitter on Trump’s proposed 60% tariffs on all imported Chinese goods.
Imposing high costs on China and many other trading partners has been one of Trump’s most persistent threats in his “America First” approach.
But Trump also praises what he sees as his own strong personal connection with President Xi Jinping.
He told the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal that he would not have to use military force if Beijing took steps to block Taiwan because the Chinese leader “respects me and knows that I am [grosería] crazy”.
But both Republican and Democratic leadership are militaristic. They both consider that Beijing is determined to eclipse the United States as the most important global power.
But Mitter, a British historian who holds the ST Lee Chair in US-Asian Relations at Harvard’s Kennedy School, sees some differences.
With Harris, he says, “relationships would probably develop linearly from where they are now.”
If Trump wins, it is a “more fluid scenario.” For example, in Taiwan, Mitter points out Trump’s ambivalence about whether he would come out to defend an island that is far from the United States.
China’s leaders believe that both Harris and Trump will be tough.
“There is a small group of people in the (Chinese) establishment who favor Harris as ‘better than the known opponent.’ “A significant minority sees Trump as a businessman whose unpredictability could mean a big deal with China, however unlikely that may seem,” Mitter says.
Climate crisis
“The US election has enormous consequences not only for its citizens, but for the entire world due to the pressing imperative of the climate crisis,” says Mary Robinson, former president of The Elders, a group of world leaders founded by Nelson Mandela.
“Every fraction of a degree matters.” to avoid the worst impacts of climate change and prevent a future in which devastating hurricanes like Milton are the norm,” adds Robinson, who is also former President of Ireland and United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights.
But as hurricanes Milton and Helene wreaked havoc a few weeks ago, Trump derided environmental plans and policies to confront that climate emergency as “one of the biggest scams of all time.”
Many believe he will withdraw from the 2015 Paris climate agreement as he did in his first term.
However, Robinson says Trump cannot stop the momentum that is now gathering strength.
“It cannot stop America’s energy transition and reduce billions of dollars in green subsidies… nor can it end the tireless non-federal climate movement.”
He also urges Harris, who has not yet finalized her own stance, to step forward “to show leadership, build on the momentum of recent years, and encourage other large emitters to pick up the pace.”
Humanitarian leadership
“The outcome of the US election is of immense importance, given the unprecedented influence that the United States wields, not only through its military and economic power, but also through its potential to lead with moral authority on the world stage,” he says. Martin Griffiths, a veteran conflict mediator who, until recently, was the UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator.
He sees more light if Harris wins. “A Harris presidency represents that hope,” he says. Instead, “a return to a Trump presidency marked by isolationism and unilateralism offers little more than a deepening of global instability and despair.”
United States too It is the largest donor when it comes to the UN system. In 2022, it provided a record $18.1 billion.
In his first term, Trump eliminated funding from several UN agencies and withdrew from the World Health Organization. Other donors rushed to fill the gaps left by the US, which is what Trump wanted to happen.
But Griffiths highlights a growing desperation in the humanitarian community and beyond, and criticizes the Biden administration’s “hesitation” in the face of the deteriorating situation in the Middle East.
Aid agency heads have repeatedly condemned the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israeli civilians.
But they have also repeatedly called on the United States to do much more to end the deep suffering of civilians in Gaza and Lebanon.
Biden and his top officials repeatedly called for more aid to be sent to Gaza, and sometimes some was achieved.
But critics say the help and pressure were never enough.
“True leadership will emerge from addressing humanitarian crises with unwavering moral clarity, making the protection of human life the foundation of American diplomacy and action on the world stage,” says Griffiths, who believes that the United States and It’s an indispensable power.
“In a time of global conflict and uncertainty, The world expects the United States to rise to the challenge of responsible, principled leadership… We demand more. We deserve more. And we dare to hope for more.”
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