The vice president Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied with 48% in voting intentionaccording to a latest NYT/Siena National Poll.
However, in early voting, Democrats advance with 41.1% of the more than 33 million votes cast so far via mail or in person, while Republicans achieve 35.6%.
There are more than 20% of the votes that are not identified for either party, which can tip the balance towards either of the two, according to figures from the Electoral Lab at the University of Florida.
The survey published by the NYT specifies that the “popular vote” is evaluated, so there may be changes with respect to the progress in terms of the Electoral College vote, since although in the majority of the states those electoral votes are decided by “ popular vote”, in some there are variations by representation.
The NYT report highlights immigration as an issue that can have an impact on voters’ decisions.
“Trump has harshly criticized Harris over the Biden administration’s record on this issue,” the report says. “Voters, by an 11-point margin, said they trusted Trump more than Harris to deal with immigration.”
There are encouraging signs for Vice President Harris, the report says, because she has narrowed the gap with Trump on economic issues, which continue to be the most worrying for voters, including Latinos, as this newspaper has reported.
“Trump had a 13-point lead over Harris in last month’s poll on which candidate could best manage the economy. That difference has been reduced to 6 percentage points,” it is indicated.
Although some polls give an advantage to Harris, such as the Reuters/Ipsos poll with three points ahead of Trump, other reports benefit the Republican, such as the WSJ poll, also with three percentage points.
The average of all the polls compiled by FiveTirhtyEight reveals that Harris has 48% intention to vote in favor against 46% for Trump, but considering the margins of error in the polls, of three to five percent, the technical tie is confirmed between both candidates.
And the Latinos?
The Equis organization revealed in its recent poll that, for the first time, Harris has obtained a slight advantage among Latinos in being “better for the economy” compared to Trump.
“Harris continues to lead Trump among Latino voters in the presidential battleground, 55% to 38%, virtually unchanged from the 54% to 38% margin in a late September poll,” he says. the report.
In some key states, such as Arizona, the results are favorable for Harris among Latino voters, 55-39; in Nevada it is 54-40 and in Pennsylvania it is 55-36.
Harris’s main challenge in the campaign is to distance herself from President Joe Biden’s government, whose approval has dropped and remains at 44%.
Despite this, Harris achieves a better rating regarding her image, going from 40% to 55% from September to October, unlike Trump, who fell from 56% to 40%.
In terms of early voting, Latinos continue to lag behind with barely 2% participation, against 66.2% of whites and 22.2% of African Americans.
“There are several reasons why Latinos tend not to vote early. More than 72% of Latinos living in the United States work in the construction, agriculture, hospitality and restaurant sectors,” explained Diana Castañeda, vice president of Voto Latino. “Many of them are not willing to lose an hour or two of their income to go vote.”
Keep reading:
• “I’m going to vote”, the new national campaign of the Democratic Party for Latinos
• Obama launches campaign in Pennsylvania to support Harris heading into the elections
• “Men with Harris” targets Latinos in key states