US investigators are trying to figure out how a pair of highly classified intelligence documents were leaked online.
The documents, which appeared on the Telegram messaging app on Friday, contain a alleged US assessment of Israeli plans to attack Iran.
The assessment is based on the interpretation of satellite images and other intelligence information.
The spokesman for the White House National Security Council, John Kirbysaid this Monday that the president Joe Biden was “deeply concerned” due to filtration.
The government has not determined whether the documents were released because of a hack or a leak, Kirby said.
For three weeks now, Israel has vowed to hit Iran hard in retaliation for the massive Iranian attack with ballistic missiles against its territory on October 1.
Iran says it was in response to Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallahon September 27.
Are the documents authentic?
Military analysts say the wording used in the titles appears credible and is consistent with similar classified documents revealed in the past.
Graduates “Top secret”include the English acronym “FGI”, which means “Intelligence on Foreign Governments”.
The documents appear to have been distributed to alliance intelligence agencies Five Eyeswhich make up the five Western nations that regularly share intelligence: the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
The acronym “TK” in the documents refers to “Talent Keyhole“, a code that encompasses satellite-based Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) and Image Intelligence (IMINT).
What do the documents tell us?
Together, the two documents constitute a classified US assessment of Israel’s preparations to attack targets in Iran, based on geospatial information collected and analyzed on October 15 and 16.
What stands out is the mention of two Air Launched Ballistic Missile (ABLM) systems: Golden Horizon and Rocks.
Rocks is a system of long range missiles manufactured by the Israeli company Rafael and designed to attack a variety of targets both above and below ground.
Golden Horizon is believed to refer to the Blue Sparrow missile system, with a range of about 2,000 kilometers.
The significance of this is that it would indicate that the Israeli Air Force is planning to carry out a similar but much larger version of its ABLM strike against an Iranian radar near Isfahan in April.
By launching these weapons from a great distance and away from Iran’s borders, it would avoid the need for Israeli warplanes to fly over certain countries in the region such as Jordan.
The documents also indicate that there are no signs of preparations by Israel to activate its nuclear deterrent.
At the request of Israel, The US government never publicly acknowledges that its close ally possesses nuclear weapons.
What are they not telling us?
These documents do not mention what objectives intends to attack Israel in Iran or when.
The US has made no secret of its opposition to attacks on Iran’s nuclear or oil research facilities.
That leaves out the military bases, probably those belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its affiliated militia Basij, as these two institutions are seen as the backbone of the Islamic Republic, project their military reach abroad and suppress popular protest in the country.
As for the timing, many expected Israel to have already carried out its promised retaliation.
But in April, Iran waited 12 days before striking back at Israel with a bombardment of 300 drones and missiles after a Israeli airstrike will hit its diplomatic buildings in Damascuskilling several senior IRGC commanders.
Part of the current delay in Israel’s response is likely due to US concerns about escalation less than a month before that country’s presidential election.
Were they leaked on purpose?
Possibly yes, by someone who wanted to derail Israel’s plans.
Iran has a large and sophisticated cyber warfare capability, so the possibility of a hostile attack is also being investigated.
These documents – if they are genuine, which is believed to be very likely – show that despite the close defense relationship between the US and Israel, Washington still spies on its ally in case it is not receiving all the information.
Furthermore, they show that the Israeli Air Force’s plans to carry out some form of long-range retaliation against Iran are well advanced and that mitigation measures are being put in place in the face of an expected Iranian response.
In summary: If Israel carries out these plans, the Middle East will once again experience a period of extreme tension.
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