Historian Allan Lichtman has become the great guru of American presidential elections.
Since 1984, Lichtman has been predicting who will be the winner of the vote and, consequently, president of the United States. And it only failed in 2000, when the Republican George W. Bush he beat the democrat Al Gore despite the fact that he obtained more total votes.
Since then everything has been successful and Lichtman can boast of having been one of the few who anticipated the surprising victory of donald trump In 2016, when the vast majority of polls showed her rival as the winner in that election, Hillary Clinton.
His ability to guess the outcome of even the tightest elections through his method of the 13 keys They have made him one of the reference analysts and every four years the media comes to him in search of his omen.
Less than a month before the 2024 election, one of the most exciting in memory and in which Trump will face a woman again, Kamala HarrisBBC Mundo called him to find out his prognosis.
What does he say this time?
First you have to understand his predictive model, which he called the “13 keys method.”
How it all started
In 1981 Lichtman met a Russian earthquake expert at the California Institute of Technology who made him an unexpected proposal.
Vladimir Keilis-Borok had dedicated his career in the Soviet Union to developing a method that would allow him to anticipate when a seismic movement was going to occur and he wanted to test its validity to also successfully predict the outcome of electoral processes.
“In the USSR there were no elections and since I was an expert in the history of the United States presidency, he proposed that we work together,” Lichtman recalls in conversation with BBC Mundo.
Ronald Reagan’s re-election in 1984 would be the first time the model was put to the test. successfully.
Historian and seismologist became an “odd couple” of researchers and began looking for a way to apply the pattern recognition techniques that Keilis-Borok had been developing at the Prediction Institute to the history of the race for the White House. Moscow earthquakes.
They began to retrospectively analyze the results of presidential elections since 1860.
“The secret of our model was to reconceptualize the elections in geophysical termsestablishing two possible scenarios.”
“We identified the first as a situation of stability, in which the party in the White House remains; In the second, an earthquake occurs and the party in power loses it,” explains Lichtman.
Following the algorithmic reasoning with which Keilis-Borok was familiar and Lichtman’s knowledge of the United States’ past, they identified a series of key determinants in the outcome of the presidential race.
They reduced their initial 30 “keys” to 13, all in search of a pattern that would allow them to make a reliable forecast.
AND They ended up posing 13 conditions, one for each key.
When six or more of them do not occurIn Lichtman’s words, “we have a political earthquake.” I mean, the party in power loses the White House.
And, now, it is time to answer the question.
Harris or Trump? Who will be the next president of the United States?
This is what the 13 keys say.
1. The party in the White House won seats in the 2022 midterm elections
Democrats lost congressional seats in the 2022 midterm elections, so this first bracket is false.
Harris: 0
Trump: 1
2. No rival challenges the candidate of the party in power in the primaries
The withdrawal of President Joe Biden’s candidacy was a shock to the campaign, but Harris finally managed to unify Democrats around her leadership and be nominated as a candidate without any other alternative candidacy being presented. So this key is true. Point for Harris.
Harris: 1
Trump: 1
3. The president seeks re-election
Harris is not the president, she is vice president. So, even if he seeks the presidency from the party in power, the key is false. Point for Trump.
Harris: 1
Trump: 2
4. There is no third party candidate
Although Robert F. Kennedy tried to keep his candidacy alive, he never reached 10% voting intention in the polls and finally resigned and gave his support to Donald Trump.
Although a priori it might be thought that this would give votes to the Republican candidate, for Lichtman and his model this means that the fourth key is true. Bad news for Trump. Point for Harris.
Harris: 2
Trump: 2
5. The economy is not in recession nor will it be in the election year
The US economy is far from falling into a recession and forecasts rule out that it will do so in the few weeks remaining until the election. The key is true and this point is for Harris.
Harris: 3
Trump: 2
6. The economy has grown in the presidential term as much as in the previous two
According to Lichtman’s calculations, the per capita Gross Domestic Product of the United States has grown as much during Joe Biden’s presidency as it did during Trump’s term and Barack Obama’s second term. True key, so point for Harris.
Harris: 4
Trump: 2
7. The president has made big changes in national policy
Lichtman considers that Biden has made big changes in national policy, such as the measures included in the Inflation Reduction Act or the decision to return to the Paris climate agreement, from which Trump had withdrawn the United States, so This key, according to him, is fulfilled. Another point for Harris.
Harris: 5
Trump: 2
8. There have been no conflicts that endanger social stability during the presidency
There has been nothing like the social and racial conflicts of the 1960s, and Lichtman believes that in the last four years stability has prevailed. The key is true and the point is for Harris.
Harris: 6
Trump: 2
9. There have been no scandals that hit the White House
Although his son Hunter has been convicted and faces other accusations and scandals, Lichtman emphasizes that the scandals should have directly affected the president in order not to be fulfilled. Therefore, this key is true and another point goes to Harris.
Harris: 7
Trump: 2
10. The White House has not suffered a major diplomatic or military failure abroad
The United States has failed to stop the war in Gaza, which threatens to lead to a major regional conflict and has already caused a humanitarian disaster.
Given that the United States is strongly committed to the region and its support for Israel, this is for Lichtman a foreign policy failure. Fake key. Point for Trump.
Harris: 7
Trump: 3
11. The White House has achieved great military or diplomatic success abroad
Lichtman considers it a success for Biden that he has managed to make Ukraine resist the Russian invasion thanks to the support of NATO.
Despite the reluctance of the Republicans, Biden has promoted the delivery of large amounts of money, weapons and equipment that have helped to ensure that Ukraine has not succumbed to the attack of a much larger and more powerful neighbor, and whose example has been followed by other states of NATO. The key, says Lichtman, is true. Point for Harris.
Harris: 8
Trump: 3
12. The candidate of the party in power has charisma
Lichtman explains that this is a very demanding key. Only a few presidents like Franklin D. Roosevelt or Barack Obama have been truly charismatic for him. The key is fake. Point for Trump.
Harris: 8
Trump: 4
13. The candidate who challenges the president has no charisma
Many of his followers adore Trump, but Lichtman emphasizes that true charisma requires being an attractive leader not only to the faithful but also to voters of different stripes. The key is real and is written down by Harris.
Harris: 9
Trump: 4
The 13 keys of Licthman have spoken and their prognosis is clear: According to their model, Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States.
The result of the polls on November 5 will determine whether Lichtman and his thirteen keys are right again.
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